How often have you been good when shipping 200+ bb's into a obviously recreational player with a single pair in a intially 8bb pot.


Thats the question we need to ask now.

Again, all the 96soooted hand proves is that he likes to loosely see flops for small percentages of his stack; nothing else about it suggests spew for $700 stacks. Repopping him and getting on our way to playing for $700 stacks having gotten in just lol 2% of them preflop seems horribad to me...

GbutIdon'tplayinvikingland,soIdunnoG

This flop is great to check in position with an overpair deep in a non 3! pot.

A cbet is also great here but keep in mind that is a clear fold when raised unless you are up against the spewiest of players who you have a clear history of proof that they can do this with.


pair+fd
straight +fd
Naked nut fd
99-jj
a9

Even then most of those hands flip with us. Not ideal for 200bbs. Generally when I put in 200bbs I have you in rough ***** shape. 30% or less.

And if you do cbet, keep in mind KK is going to end up a 2 street hand on this texture about 80% of the time. Unless the runnout is so good that a pair of 9s can hero call three streets.

No it's not. However, you certainly need some answers.

96s is one data point. Means very little to me. Guy just has lots of hands here from the SB like most, what went in preflop has nothing to do with anything. If he wants to put in 700 now then he's gonna need a set, he doesn't have a set often. Having an OP and bdfd is a fine way to stack some people in 400bb pots, particularly 2b ones on boards that allow for 100s of gutters, fd, pair+fd, and poorly played 1p hands.

I'd be comfortable shipping 52 suited and 95 here against EP.

I'd have the effective nuts with 95. I'd only be worried about 99 if I had 52.

Where do you play?

It is, but our hand can also pickup additional equity on a diamond turn.

Vs. 2-pr we need 29% to call, have 28%, so while there are nutty hands in his range, the 3b call hand (96) should be considered. Hands like A4s/87s/76s/64s might be in the range.

I’d call a reasonably sized turn bet. If the river bricks, I’d likely fold to value sizing. I try to get a live read in these spots.

I used to fold this, and now not so much. Not because of the flush draw though that is definitely possible, but more villains believing they're value raising other over pairs (TT-QQ) or even A9. I also find that villains so often slow play sets, especially on relatively dry boards, that you can often discount them.

My experience is opposite to this. In general, most players are pretty damn MUBSy when it comes to getting in stacks, especially large ones, so most aren't gung ho about raising the flop with just TP / small overpair (much smaller stacked and feeling committed, ok, maybe). Ditto for sets on drawy boards; much more likely to be paranoid about all the draws and just make sure they start charging them / prevent from being sucked out in a large pot.

Gime,othersmaydifferG

Surely he's shown down more than 1 hand in 90 mins. The 96s was out of line, but what were the other showdowns? 1 pair hands that played normal? In my experience a player who's calling 3 bets with 96s also has bluffs/semi bluffs. If he's calling and opening that wide his stack will be burning up pretty fast unless he's sun running. Does he normally just check call down, fold if he misses? In order to get behind a fold I need more info than just the one 96s hand.

Call flop, call turn, fold river

Agree.

Not folding yet.

Thanks for screwing up the thread view for everyone on mobile

Yeah, i mean just not so many. Another big hand he played was when he 3 bet a big MP open from drunky on the button with 1010. Drunky shipped like 120 blinds, villain snapped and held vs drunkys AQ. The fact that he 3 bet/snapped off a 4 bet shove tells me that he at least is a thinking player and is somewhat planning how to play his hands.

120 bb ships with TT in full ring is usually the shine of a losing player. Considering how rare and nutted 4 bets usually are at 1/3.

Even if we assign a loose 4bet range of KQo-AKo and 99-AA it still preforms terribly. And many players are only 4! QQ+ and AKo/AKs

But I guess against a drunk it's probably breakeven.


What were the results, did you call this guy down or not? Given this information with TT i might be calling him down. He is obviously overvaluing some middling hands. He might be as light as a9 here.

I thought he was a typical passive loose player who only starts putting money in when nuttedish (two pair or better) but seems he is spewy given the TT.

Against loose passives we can overfold to aggression but if he is loose aggressive then we simply have to call down here unless obvious draws come in and he keeps bombing it.

Both the 96 and TT hand have one thing in common: the big $$$ go in when he thinks he has the best hand (and in both cases it was very reasonable to think his hand was best).

While this doesn't necessarily mean he isn't capable of check/raising big draws, it's still a bit of a concern.

Also, in general, how often do people check/raise the flop and then check the turn? IME, not very often. So it's not just the $80 bet we're facing here, it's the $150 bet we're going to face on the turn that we also have to consider. Our plan is just to call down and eventually fold if he bets big on the river / draws start coming in?

ETA: This is why I mostly just check the flop. We get to showdown in a big pot for a reasonable price and don't have to deal with these high variance situations where, frankly, we probably don't have nearly as good a handle on things as we think we do (i.e. ask ourselves exactly how much different we're playing our hand than the biggest fish at the table at this point, is it *that* much different?).

GcluelessplannoobG

But if he's playing TT like the nuts, he could see a pair of 9s as the nuts here.


I'm with you on checking this flop, for two reasons. Deep, and not much to call me. Also I'd only attempt to go for 3 streets in single raise pot with an overpair on the best board. Q83x6x3x would be a board I go for three streets, it's a clear value target (q's).


I was on board with folding at first but player seems to overplay marginal hands. I think i'm comfortable calling him all the way down. If I call flop i've made my decision to call down to the river barring a diamond peeling and him bombing river huge.

He's playing TT like the nuts against the drunk whale, which it is.

Highly doubt he's playing 9x like the nuts against OP who's continuing in a 3way pot.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Good discussion going on this hand/spot, much appreciated guys. Exactly the food for thought i was looking for.

Results: hero calls the flop,already disliking this situation pretty hard. Another 9 peels off on the turn, and hero gets "bended over with a big bet" as another poster accurately described it earlier in this thread- when villain fires $200 on the turn. Hero folds. Neither villain or hero shows cards, so i have no idea if he just flopped huge on me, hit trips on the turn- or just kept bombing the turn with a flushdraw to prisonrape me pretty hard. Didnt feel my best after this hand, as i felt kind of exploited to be hones, and i was tired going on very little sleep so i decided to pick up few minutes later.

Yeah, this is why I pretty much lean to a very strict check-to-showdown method versus a bet/fold method. The in-between method of bet/call is the nut low, imo, unless we have some very good reads that tell us otherwise (ex. villain will check/raise on the flops lots but always shut down on the turn unless he's nutted, etc.).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Your hand is too strong to fold vs the wide range of hands he might checknraise with on this flop: top pair, top pair + draw, FD, SD, SFD, TT, JJ, etc. in addition to the few combos that have you crushed like sets.

His range to continue out of position if you raise narrows to hands for which you are way behind or marginally ahead of. So, I would rather keep him in the hand with his full range rather than weed out his top pairs and weaker draws.

So, calling is best planning to re-evaluate in position on turn using the texture of the board, stack sizes, and his actions out of position as a guide on how to proceed.

I guess it depends on what the V is capable of. If he is a solid player, it's unlikely that he has the hands you mentioned as most of these hands would probably just call. I suppose sometimes he would check raised with an OP to deny our equity. But in general, the check raise should polarize his range to sets/2pair/combo S/F draw/possibly A/x dd or the weakest part of his range like a gutshot and BDFD like 6/7s. If he has just a weak flush draw or a marginal hand like A9 or TT he probably isn't going to want to X/R and then have to face a shove but he probably finds a fold to our shove with these hands because he definitely has a nut advantage over us. I think the bottom of our range is probably 99.

So, for the reasons that his X/R range heavily favors sets/2pair/strong combo draws over marginal hands and weak draws and the fact that he probably folds his marginal A9 type hands to a shove, our only choice is to call with the intent of folding to additional aggression or fold now. I think shoving is a huge mistake for this stack depth.

Not really exploited. The sad fact is he probably is overplaying a 9 and then made trips and wanted to bet big because he doesn't know what else to do. If anything, he made the stone minimum.

+9

I think you made a good fold.

His flop raising range contains several 9dXd hands (A9/Q9/J9/T9/98/97), strong enough equity to x/r and continue barreling turn. May have struck gold, sizing turn as if he did.