I've been on a break even run since January and I'm trying to figure out if there are certain spots I'm playing differently, mainly raising/betting for thin value and trying to balance that against a tendency to spew. Below is hand 1 of 2 from a recent session I'm interested in hearing thoughts on.

Saturday night at Borgata. Place is a zoo as it's tourney series time. As such, the 1/2 tables are playing a little tougher than usual. My table is no different, containing 3-4 seemingly winning players

Hero: Sitting for 45 minutes and has been very tight as he gets a feel for the table. Probably seen as a TAG/Borderline Rock by the younger, more aggressive and active players. Hasn't shown down any hands.

V: Younger White kid. Has been reasonably active both raising in all positions as well as limp calling. Not one of the winning players I mentioned above.

Hero [300]
V [400]

2 limps to V in MP who raises to 15. Hero calls in CO with KJ, Both limpers Call.

Pot: 63
Board: 6 A 3
Check, check, V bets 35, hero calls, fold, fold

Pot: 133
Board: 6 A 3 Q
V check, Hero check

Pot:133
Board: 6 A 3 Q 3
V bets 40, Hero ?

Yeah, raise river (120ish), I don't know what bluffs you could have really but your line is odd so maybe this guy levels himself into a call. I can't decide if I like the turn check or not, either way seems fine.

Yeah you must raise river after underrepping the turn. I like 120 as well. And folding to a 3b.

However I think betting the turn here IP with the best hand you can have is a better play. Why did you elect to check?


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Yeah idk what I was thinking this morning, you have to bet the turn. Your chances of getting two streets are slim but you don't want a heart rivering and ruining action.

Thanks for the responses. My reason for checking is that there are only a few hands in V's range that I'm going to get value on the turn from while an aggressive V is going to fire a lot of river cards with air as well as possibly pay off lighter. Checking keeps an aggressive V's range wide at a time when he is likely crushed. There really aren't a ton of river cards I hate. Hearts are bad, board pairing could be bad as well I suppose but not necessarily, other than that there aren't a ton of cards to fear.

Plan going into the river is bet ~$80ish if checked to, raise if bet into, evaluate if reraised depending on the river card.

Sorry if I am rambling or am unclear. Still haven't had my Coffee yet,


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Yeah there are potential upsides to checking, which is why I was considering it might be right for a while, but I think it's all a bit vague. For instance, I'm not sure villain is firing the river with bluffs much. You called the flop indicating you have something, then you checked the turn on a perfect bluffing card, so it looks like you have a made hand. Your line looks exactly like you have an ace of some kind and are pot controlling and intending to call river. I agree that some villains will pay off lighter on the river (for thinking players the turn bet is tougher to call as you're potentially going to face another bet OTR) but it's villain dependent.

The downsides of checking seem more concrete: a heart kills your action, and you might fail to stack something that should get stacked.

Bet the turn to target Ax. I highly doubt that V would check the turn with a strong hand like top two pair or a set, but if he did then here is your chance to get paid.

If he is checking turn with a mediocre hand like KK or TT, then he is always going to just check the river, so you don't really gain much by checking the turn, but you risk losing a ton of value against sets, two pair and TPGK.

Additionally, V can level himself into calling with a hand like TT w/ the ten of hearts or QT w/ the ten of hearts.

So much value on the turn.

River easiest raise/fold against a most likely AK/J/T that can call an additional $40-$60

Fair enough. Thanks for the insight all. Results below if anyone is interested.

3b pre

As played raise flop

As played bet turn

As played raise/fold river

Bet the turn.
Raise/fold river.

Let's read V's hand.

Once the Qh comes out, we can see all four top hearts. That leaves few to no flush hands that raised pre (T9 being the strongest). With the bet on the flop into 3 opponents, I think the chances further shrink. So it's unlikely he has a smaller flush. (Which is a pity.)

He probably didn't raise 33 or 66 pre, and he probably didn't check AA or QQ on the turn, so I think a set is very unlikely. I don't think he checked AQ on the turn, and I don't think he raised A6, A3, or 63 pre, so I don't think he has 2P. I'm ignoring Q6 and Q3.

So, either he has an A or a big PP that took one stab on the flop and then shut down on the turn. If so, the tiny river bet is a blocking bet designed to avoid having to make a tough decision.

So we should give him a tough decision and put in a small raise to which he's going to hate folding and hate calling. The ideal result is that he tanks for a good minute before doing whatever he does.

If he raises, we're in fudge factor territory. In that case, somewhere in the hand he did something really unexpected. Given the weirdness and the pot odds (if we raise to 120 and he jams there will be 500 in the pot needing 130 to call), we might have to call. A smaller raise, say 100, makes it 480 in the pot, needing 150 to call -- a little easier to get away from (and easier for him to call).

So I think a small raise makes sense, but I think we're likely to have to call it off if he raises.