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Just want to make sure this is a call... Just want to make sure this is a call...

08-05-2012 , 12:30 AM
1/2 NL

Hero: ($300) Just got a table change, and I think this is only my first or second orbit. I am very familiar with both villains, and villains are both familiar with me. They are both regulars and we have played a lot with each other.

Villain 1: ($110) Mid 20s white kid, me and him are friends at the casino. He is surely a winning player but plays wayyyy too tight. I would almost call him a nit. He is a thinking player and understands the game well. But he does a lot of little things that I dont get.. Like why he doesn't reload when he is down to $100 for example. He plays very cautiously and is sometimes on the passive side. Views me as a good LAG.

Villain 2: ($130) Late 20s asian female. She is extremely tight and passive. Although I think that she might actually be a small winner in the game because the fish just dump to her when she has the nuts. Probably break-even or small winner. She usually knows exactly what is going on but just doesn't have the heart or the balls to pull the trigger or make a move. I have bluffed her out of so many pots and she knows it but just folds. She doesn't really like me because she thinks I'm a 'bully' and she is really comfortable just limping and trying to hit a flop which I don't let her do.

Preflop: Hero raises to $10 UTG with AA, MP calls, folds to V1 on BTN who looks like he wants to raise, cuts out about $35 and eventually just calls, V2 in BB calls.

Flop: ($40) 875 BB checks, Hero bets $25, MP folds, V1 tanks and reluctantly pushes All-In for ~$90, V2 stands up, looks nervous trying to make sense of the board then pushes All-In for ~$120, Hero?

-Ok so there is $285 in the pot and it's $95 for me to call so I am getting 3-1.
-I know I have V1 beat, he either has AxK or 9x9, TxT, JxJ
-I know V2 has me beat. And I know she either has 2 pair or a set. The reason she thinking and nervous on the flop is because she was scared of a made flush, thats how she thinks, she is super passive.

So I have 9 flush but we have to eliminate 2 because she has a set, and V1 likely has one spade, so we have 6 flush outs and 2 outs to hit a set of aces. So 8 total outs giving us a little over 30% equity, we are getting 3-1, this is an auto-call correct?
Just want to make sure this is a call... Quote
08-05-2012 , 12:34 AM
I call happily?
I didn't really read your post to be honest, I just skimmed the cliff notes, saw that you have AA on a monotone board, facing a 50BB bet, and you have the nut flush draw, and an over pair.
Call.
Just want to make sure this is a call... Quote
08-05-2012 , 12:34 AM
yeah, i'm snap-calling this. i'd probably fold two other Aces, but with the As, i'm calling.
Just want to make sure this is a call... Quote
08-05-2012 , 12:35 AM
My question is that what if we know that villain has a set, do we still call?
Just want to make sure this is a call... Quote
08-05-2012 , 12:38 AM
If we *know* he has a set, which is a fairly big assumption, then we've still got 2 aces, and at least 7 spades to make the best hand. (Assuming 2 of them are removed just to prove a point.)
That means we've got 9 outs.
This is a bit better than 38% equity. We are getting 3:1 on our money.
Still a call.
(You're essentially telling us that he had the set, and you called, and were unhappy with the results when you missed the river.) (Or you are saying that you had the set, and he called with AA and hit on the river.)

Either way, AA should def call here.
Just want to make sure this is a call... Quote
08-05-2012 , 12:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PayOffWizard1987
So I have 9 flush but we have to eliminate 2 because she has a set, and V1 likely has one spade, so we have 6 flush outs and 2 outs to hit a set of aces. So 8 total outs giving us a little over 30% equity, we are getting 3-1, this is an auto-call correct?
I think your analysis is correct. I would reluctantly call
Just want to make sure this is a call... Quote
08-05-2012 , 12:44 AM
AA
vs.
88

on a

875 board is 34% to win.
Just like to point that out.

Assuming the third worst (69ss is the worst 64ss right there too, where we are drawing totally dead), he has a the made flush, and we are still 31% to win.
Still a call.
Just want to make sure this is a call... Quote
08-05-2012 , 10:40 AM
Snap call

I'm ahead a lot of the time

If I'm behind I have outs
Just want to make sure this is a call... Quote
08-05-2012 , 11:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PayOffWizard1987
My question is that what if we know that villain has a set, do we still call?
Yes.

Worst care scenario (other than a straight flush) you have 7 outs. Getting 3-1 isn't a snap call all day when you factor in the times you're ahead or drawing to even more out.
Just want to make sure this is a call... Quote

      
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