it´s exactly what villain did tho. clicked buttons and got lucky otr.

people spazz with bad one pair hands all the time. this guy's sizing is horrible wouldn't be surprised if he's trying to block river in his mind.

Actually, they don't. Because they get broke. This guy flips A3 suited on a cold day in hell, unless it's suited in spades.

I guess I'll just repeat. Most 1-2 players aren't sophisticated enough to do this with 77. They're essentially bingo players who think the object of NLH is to (1) make the best hand and get paid, or (2) bluff out the weaklings. It is nearly impossible that this guy has SDV less than hero in this spot.

WTF. For most 1-2 players, $50 is a big bet.

Im with lapidator in that Raising has alot more value then what the rest of you guys may think. (as long as it is a very small raise)

Honestly Call = Raise >>> fold

in that Calling and raising is probably quite similar in ev


But its somwhat villian dependent so the default line id say is call

If we had AJ here then its definitely a raise

JT is equivalent to QJ, KJ, or AJ given action pre. Do you agree?

I didn't see results until just now. I guess my advice about trusting your instincts on the turn was bad.

His hand is pretty much exactly what i would expect someone to have when he is leading small on the turn. I'm not sure why you think that was a big bet to him but this is a super common thing that villains will do with weakish hands trying to get to a cheap river. Per my previous post a lot of times this is a hand like 54, J4, a flush draw etc. Every bet made in a poker hand is telling a story and the stories told in live low stakes are generally pretty easy to read...ie small bet = weakish hand, big bet = strong hand.

BTW, if he airballs river I think there is a pretty decent chance that he bets again.

Yeah but him donking $50 on the turn with nothing is a prime example of why we have to call, because fish donkbet with stupid **** like this all the time. His river bet is really no different, I expect him to keep firing with 100% of his range because thats just how they think.

The $50 river bet is almost never a bluff. (Because hero showed a significant amount of commitment.) Of course, I would go with my visual impressions, but this is a cringing crying call at best. Those advocating a raise have apparently never heard of Murphy's Law.

Sir, I've played this game to the point of complete mental and physical exhaustion, and I must say that your statement is patently FALSE. Only a small minority, less than 20% certainly, and almost certainly less than 15%, have consistent bet sizing tells of that nature.

looks like he flopped really big. 2 pr +. of course, we still have outs. flat the turn and see what the river brings.

everything looks fine until this point. the only thing you might be mindful of is if V has Ax, where he flopped a gutter and bigger spades, making hitting your flush on the river a little bit tricky.

Guys. This is an easy river call. How is this thread still going? Well played, OP. Better luck next time.

/thread

Hero had plenty of committment up until that point and fish still tried to bluff the turn in a totally nonsense manner. Because of this we know his thought process is exactly 0, herego if he's willing to make spastic random bluffs on the turn given how the action preceded, then he'll do the same thing on the river too. He'll just consider it a 2nd shot in his eye without contemplating any of the merits of how the hand played out.

No, I dont. At this level alot of bad players will call with two overs on the flop. In that case, AJ > JT

AJ is also two overs and a gutshot on the flop, so AJ > JT solely because I think AJ (at minimum) is in Villain's range.

Which does lead me to disagree that we should be raising river. If we raise river with JT I expect to get called by at least AJ, which is 8 combos, but what worse is in the range that Villain got to this point with and calls a raise?

If electing to raise riv its as a bluff and as a bluff it needs to be huge with aim to fold out an entire range... However, he likely isn't good enough to fold enough hands after bet, betting... So it's mostly a crying call against a player bad enough to take this line/sizing as he can at least have some worse 1 pair hands that do this. Folding isn't out of the question either if the player read is strong enough.

Um, no. Villain made an extremely thin bluff OTT and got called (if that's what it actually was). He won't make another thin bluff. The $50 bet OTR is almost never a bluff. It's quite simple; no one hates money that much.

My point is that since preflop it was limped to Hero, I would discount [AJ,KJ,QJ] from being in V's range as he would have opened pre when he had the chance.

So combining preflop action, plus just having 2 overs OTF, I can pretty comfortably say that V rarely has a better J.

Judging by your posts it's likely that you simply aren't a very good player. Perhaps I underestimated the difficulty that some people might have in reading the story being told. I don't believe it should be that difficult though.

Yeah but his bluff made no sense. How could he think a bluff like this would work? What's his thought process? My guess is it was just "duhhhh, i want to win this pot somehow, so I'm gonna bet!". If he thinks anything like that then he can easily continue that thought into the river.