it's 6 in the morning, Hero just sat down at the table and has never seen Villain before

The Villain is on my immediate right, young asian who seems pretty straight forward. The only hand he showed so far is a hand he flopped a full-house and went bet-check-bet and both his flop and river bets are pot size. And he is on the loose side but not super loose.


action:

Villain (~$700) limped in MP

Hero ($400) raised to $12(standard at this table) with JJ

one caller ($150) behind and Villain called


Flop ($40): 447

Villain paused for a little and checked

Hero bet $30

the other caller folded

Villain called


Turn ($100): 8

Villain again thought for a bit and checked

Hero checked for pot control (I didn't want to get check-raised as the Villain looked like pretty interested to play this pot) and planned to bet the river if check to


River: Q

Villain slowly bet $100 into appr. $100 pot

Hero?

It's an ugly spot for sure, but you checked OTT for pot control, hoping for a good card and probably intending to call a reasonably sized bet OTR. Well, a overcard has peeled off and villain is facing you with a full PSB. His PSB represents a big hand, 77, 88, maybe a 4, maybe a slowplayed big PP. Or, he could be bluffing. Is he bluffing more than 33% of the time (break even ev) in this spot? Who knows? You don't have any real reads on him except that he maybe plays straight forward. I don't think a big bluff in this spot would be considered straight forward. I think the play is to fold, and I would pay close attention to his play from here on out.

FWIW, I would be inclined to bet OTT in this spot with 12 possible overcards that could fall OTR.

Def bet the turn. What this allows you to do most often times is to get a free showdown if you choose. If he CR's you on this board on the turn you are for sure beat and can fold easily rather than play a guessing game on the river because you've under repped your hand at that point.

Honestly the Q is a pretty innocuous river card. I'd say if he has a hand it's more likely to be something like 56 or A4 rather than anything that has a Q in it.

As played it's pretty close. Him bluffing this river is pretty unlikely, though you did basically make your hand look like AK. I'd still probably fold though.

bet turn and fold to any further action. might get a call from 55, 66, 78, A7, and all the hands that beat you. river action once you bet 2 streets tends to be very honest. but as played you underrep your hand which makes you spot ugly OTR.

As played, hero-fold. guess he would c/c with anything that you can beat in the hope of catching AK.

I actually like the turn check, but only with the intention of call the river.

I call here pretty quickly. Q is unlikely to have connected with his range at all, he can have 78 here a bunch as well as 99 or other stuff.

We really don't lose to much, good hands are hard to make.

I like the way you played it.

Call the river.

FOLD

Honestly, I'm probably looking for live tells in this spot. Until recently I didn't realize how valuable they are at LLSNL. Does villain seem comfortable? How fast did he bet the river? Usually a snap pot size bet is a pretty strong hand, as most fish can't wait to get their money in the pot with what they believe is a monster.

I don't hate the turn check, although I sometimes bet ~1/2 pot to induce a river check, then bet for value OTR. And then if villain does bet river, you can be sure you're beat a lot. Right now, you have no clue.

As played, without prior reads, I fold.

If you had AA, I could see checking the turn for pot control. There are zero overcards that can come on the river, and then otr you can either vb or call his bet. I might play KK the same way. But once you get down to JJ, TT or 99, giving a free card that allows V to either make his hand or bluff into a scare card can be a disaster. So with those hands I would usually bet.

I bet turn also. Hand stays in our control then.

As played i prolly fold vs him. The Q hits our range and he pots into us. Yea, fold.

Fold the river

Just as a side note, FWIW, most villains at 1/2 live don't consider ranges. You most likely are beat here, but I've seen "value" bets OTR in these spots from guys who have A7 thinking "I has a pair and he has AK, so I bet".

You need to be good on the river here 1/3 of the time and you're not gonna be anywhere near that rate.

Echoing what other posters have said, you need to be betting for value on the turn here. This is not even close to being considered thin value - this is pretty standard. I'm guessing you have a problem with betting thin rivers as well if you're checking behind turns for pot control on hands like this.

If the Q peels off and he checks into you, are you checking behind or betting, and if so, how much?