Quote:
Originally Posted by M3rcy1993
Really don't like this logic. At all.
No.1 remember in poker if it's +EV for our opponents it's -EV for us. If villain is competetent at the slightest he should never rock up with QQ+ here. As he is OOP and expect him to 3bet that range. Also leading $20 into $61 does nothing for him holding QQ+ so lets disclude QQ+from his range
I don't see a good reason to disclude QQ+ from his range. People do really strange things at this level, and that flop can miss a lot so the 20$ bet could be a value bet/seeing where V is at in the hand. I suppose I should ask considering effective stack size, how often do you think V is calling the raise here on a draw? Considering the hero's action, if I was the V, I am assuming another barrel on the turn putting me in a Shove or fold position.
Quote:
No.2 We DO NOT have the Jh which is a good thing as we block none of villains flush combos. If Villain does have a flush draw, putting $20 to win the $61 pot + Hero's $20 call is basically getting 4:1 odds with 2:1 equity which is +EV for the villain thus -EV for us. With two overs and a flush draw Hero is actually a slight dog against.
The V is basically committing to a shove on the flop with a flush draw and without history, I am not making that assumption (the only thing we got is the OP called him a decent play. Most decent players don't chase flush draws without a pair or something that doesn't autolose in showdown. Let's assume he is though for the sake of argument, and you put the AhKh in V's range, he chose to shove all in for his last $260 on a two card draw?
Quote:
No.3 Villains range is capped due to the flop and preflop action, he either has a type of flush draw, 9x, 99, 7x. Maybe even 88/66 type hands. T8, 86 oesd JhTh, 8h5h combo draws are also very possible
Against the draws we MUST bet and not only that bet a size that pot commits us as we must deny the right odds to call for Villain. 2/3 pot to 3/4 pot i think is good, so roughly $120-$150 would be my bet. To bet an amount where you can bet fold accomplishes nothing in this scenario. May as well check and let flush draws see free rivers. Our decision to either check or bet depends on our read on how weighted Villains range is to 99/7x relative to flush draws. Sucks pot committing ourself as we can't fold to his x/r shove with 99/7x but we CAN'T check back the turn if he has a draw and like i said, a LARGE % of his range in this spot is going to be a draw of some kind
I think you are inappropriately capping the V's range here. Not every player 3bets Qs up. There is this trend in cash games I have been seeing (it might be anecdotal) where players are limping or flat calling raises with high pocket pairs to mine lay. It might not be happening here, but it doesn't mean it's impossible.
You obviously don't check, but you don't bet an amount that causes the V to shove back. I think the way the V is playing takes most of his draws out of his range because he could fold here a good chunk of the time if he isn't beating a two-pair. Even if he has the drawiest of draws (some weird **** like 8-10h), he is drawing to 37% on any pocket pair you have, and has >0% of folding you out.