I was playing in a 1/2 game this evening and had been there for about 20/25 minutes. The table is pretty tough for a 1/2 game and pretty deep with multiple people over $4/500, and very few below $200. I bought into the game for $300 and was sitting with about $280, as I had only seen one or two flops and whiffed.

The action is opened by the villain, who has about $600 in front of him. He is on the older side, but is very good and usually the most aggressive player at the table. I also think he is usually the best. He makes very large bets that put opponents in tough spots, and when he turns his hand up it is usually best.

Anyways, he raises to $7 from middle position. A fish calls, and I look down at Jc Jd. I raise to $22 and the villain calls, the fish folds. After the villain called he asked how much I had in front of me.

Flop: 8910rainbow

As soon as the flop turns up the villain immediately moves all in. Literally it was a snap move all in where he grabbed a huge handful of green $25s in one hand and reds $5s in the other. We have played together a fair amount and I know that he must know I wouldn't three bet him without a fairly big hand. I honestly thought he would put me on QQ+, so this was strange to me. After about 10 seconds of thought I basically decided I would fold, because I thought he had at worst a 2 pair combo of some sort, as I know he would call my 3 bet with suited connectors. I said to him "I have Jacks" he responded and said "you know that is beat right now, I have a set. Call if you want."

As I said, I have played with him previously. Last time I played with him he had told a lady who he put all in "I hit 2 pair call with AK if you want, but I have you beat." She called with AK and was beat.

What do you do in this type of situation. I only have $22 in the pot, and had about $280 to start the hand. Seems like an obvious fold to me, despite the open ended straight draw, but I would really like the insight of the community as I often feel like I sometimes struggle in these types of spots.

If this is a fold, how much money would I have to have invested in the pot to make the call profitably? I don't know how to calculate these types of things, or what types of programs to download to run these types of hands. I would really like to add that type of equity thinking to me game, I think it would really help me to make close decisions.

This is what pokerstove is for. Against sets and flopped two pairs (assuming he plays suited but not unsuited) you have 38.6%.

Are you getting the right price to call? No? Then fold.

Pre-flop sizing isn't good.

This appears to be a straight forward fold, but...

If he does have a set 88-1010, then we're a 2-1 dog basically and we're getting a little better than 2-1 pot odds to call. He could be lying and have 77, JJ-AA, AJ, KJ, J10...
In this spot, vs this opponent, I may be inclined to call which may add to our image down the line. I'm not saying I do this everytime, but for some reason I would like to gamble a little with this guy and see what he actually has given that we have a lot of outs.

i'm getting it in here every time unless i see he has 67 or JQ. you're getting enough odds vs 2pair. You've got lots of hands in bad shape. Even against sets you're still at like 30%. if his range includes pair draws you put it in here.

What the. OP how often are you in these types of spots lol (end of your second-to-last paragraph) ? As played I would probably fold on the basis that he is shoving into a fish also that you described, who would most likely come along with hands like J10+ for the shove, and in giving the speech after and him making a speech previously and being correct, would factor into a fold here (you should never believe a poker player obviously ).

My assumption is that he knows you have a strong 3betting range and wants you to second guess him for a bluff with his speech, and he probably doesn't realise that you are aware that he has done this previously to another player. Your equity vs a set is just above 35% in this hand, and around 40 vs two pair.

The bottom line is that I do not think he is bull*****ting you here, and you have committed 11bb out of your 140+bb stack when the pot is not offering you sick odds. As played, fold.

Well, if he really does have the set we're in bad shape. Which set matters little, though it does have some miniscule impact on the percentages because of backdoor full house draws (for instance, when villain has 88, the board could run 10-10 or 9-9 for the hero to make a better full house). However, let's assign 99 to the villain.

I ran 9-9 vs J-J on the 10-9-8 rainbow flop and it gave us 31.5% equity, meaning we win less than 1/3 of the time.

If our equity is 31.5% of the pot, than we can justifiably call any jam for which our call will not exceed 31.5% of the entire pot after all the chips are added together (though the closer to 31.5% of the pot our call becomes, the closer it becomes to a break-even call--once it exceeds 31.5% of the final pot, as it does here, it becomes a losing call). As it stands, our call will represent roughly 45% of the pot and so, in the long run, we'll be losing 13.5% of every dollar we call off here.


Put more simply, because our equity is approximately 33% or 1/3, I think we about need 2:1 to make this call, and we're not getting it.

By the way OP, get into the habit of not announcing your hand and hence your 3betting range (which will appear as more polarized vs observant villains), it will give opponents an effective line to play against you. Say nothing, and just fold.

I've played against a guy like this recently and this is a clear fold. Most of the time in this spot he has a set. Good fold. 2 pair is possible, but less likely.

In these situations either you're ahead or behind with odds being no influence. To play around with the odds, you can search for an odds calculator and run all the simulations of your JJ vs possible hands.

The guys did some good math here to follow.

Why not? What would you do?

with the caller in between, i'd make it like 30-35

Sounds right. Villain would/should fold too if he setmines and plays them pf like that.

learn to start 3 betting more so your hand isnt obvious