$2/$5 NL

New table opens. The first 30 minutes are wild as hell. Two guys both got stacked each of the first 2 hands.

Hero bought for $400 and has played 1 hand in the 30 mins and now has $510.

Effective stacks all about $500ish

Hero limps UTG
Bad LAG UTG+2 makes it $30
Unknown but apparently TAG 45 year old female calls
45 year old seemingly TAG male calls
Complete uber maniac of epic proportions calls in the SB.

These are all rec players and its unlikely anyone has a read on me other than Ive played only 1 hand so far.

Hero shoves $510.

What percentage do you expect me to take it down preflop? In other words, how much FE do I have?

Do we have a hand? Shoving AK is a dream spot, same with QQ, jj, 1010. AA or kk I might raise to $120 to milk some action.

At this table, I expect that you are getting called by JJ+ by everyone but the uber maniac, add AK for the bad LAG, and 44+/AT+ for the maniac. TAGs are pretty capped by their flats, so almost always folding. Bad Lag is not capped and opened early, so he may be calling 25%ish, Maniac is capped, but taking JJ+/AK out of his range still leaves more in it than anyone else. I'm guessing he calls 50%ish, but you are doing way better against him range V. range.

After some googling to get the independent event probability formula double checked (amazingly enough, I'd remembered it correctly) the probability that at least one of them will call you, based on my estimates above, is 62.5%.

This is almost impossible to answer without a better read on maniac. All you've given us is Uber maniac of epic proportions.
An Uber maniac may call almost 100% here last to act. You can only make this play with a hand that's well ahead of maniacs range.

Otherwise, you're getting called by something like TT or JJ+ and AK. Maybe AQ by the PFR. not doing the math for everyone but if bad LAG makes this raise with about 20% of hands he's probably calling 15-20% of the time now. If the TAGs would 3-bet most of the time with AK and QQ+ then they basically need JJ or TT to call now.

My definition of a maniac is someone who is constantly betting when checked to, making constant large raises, bluff raising. Hes playing big pots all the time. He can bust 3-4 buy ins in an hour without a sweat. That doesnt mean hes a huge calling station though. There's no way he has TT+ or AQ+ here. He could easily 3 bet preflop with a medium pair. That doesnt mean he always does though. Ive only played with him a couple times but it was very noteworthy each time. The day before this hand, I sat at a table with him and he had $1800. 45 mins later, he busted and left (and he won a couple big hands during that time).

The TAGs most likely cant have QQ+, but I dont know if they would call with JJ/TT. I wouldnt if I were them unless I had a really good read.

Upon more thought I think you're getting called about 20-25% by people other than the maniac. That assumes PFR is calling 15-20% of the time, and the other TAGs are calling a collective 5% of the time, which accounts for when they have AK or decide to be a hero w a big pocket pair.

Uber maniac is the wild card obviously, but you say this guy can bust 3-4 buy ins in an hour without breaking a sweat. That's pretty hard to do. I assume he's calling at least 50% of the time it folds around to him. If he spews away this much money this may be one of the better spots he gets with a hand like JTs hoping you have AK. So that suggests you're getting called 60-65% of the time by someone. That could be off a lot though and it depends on maniac.

I'd personally probably call you with something like QQ+/AK. JJ would probably be a fold but could call depending on any live reads and how punchy I'm feeling. The fact that you l/rr UTG scares me, but the big bet suggests you don't want to be called and the fact that gable is crazy makes me a bit more apt to call. If I'm one of the TAG callers I basically need to have an AK that I didn't 3-bet for whatever reason to call you here.

How often do you think you're getting called here? If I make this play it's because I want to get it in with the maniac with a range advantage and $90 of dead money. I'd shove something like 99 or TT+, AK and maybe AQ. Taking it down pre is an unexpected bonus to offset the times I run into a monster.

I'd say maybe 10% or less. If it was a tighter UTG+2 I'd say close to 15-20%. I'm not sure what youre trying to do here though. If you have a good hand you just blow everyone off their hands. I also can't imagine limping a top of the range hand UTG since it puts you in a super bad spot. If I saw an unknown not play ANY hands and then limp shove into four people for 100bb's I'd snap fold. I guess my point is that limp shoving a big hand is super bad because you're losing a ton of value, limp shoving a smaller PP like 22-77 is bad because if you get called you're probably crushed and they're super easy to play multiway. If you have suited connectors they also play really well multiway so there's no reason to shove and if you have rags just....Don't shove them?

What exactly were you hoping to achieve by shoving? Yeah you take down 24bbs quite a bit but you also lose 100bbs quite a bit. I'd say the move in this exact spot is marginally +EV because of the players and the pot but it just seems reckless.

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This is a bit contradicting. If Hero gets called 10% of the time then a shove with rags is massively profitable.

We are risking $505 to win $125, so a shove only needs to work 505/630 = 80% of the time to be profitable on FE alone. Even with 72o we'll have about 20% equity, and more realistically maybe 25% with the worst hand we limp UTG with.

EV = .9*125+.1*(1140*.25-505)
= $90.50

The shove has to work about 64% of the time to break even assuming 25% equity when called.

It's really hard to say exactly how much you get called here, but I think this move is underrated and under-utilized. It's probably profitable with even a weak hand containing no blockers, like 87s, and even better with something like A5s, although I'd be concerned about the maniac stacking off light and might prefer to shove a more linear range.

What does Hero have??

I could tell you but the question is how often do I get called in this spot and my holding has nothing to do with that. Im pretty sure if I say what I have, it will affect peoples opinions even if its subconsciously.

Mike, your holding having nothing to do with it is a boring question. Because, then the question is merely "is going all in blind here a good play?" That's not a good question. There is a distinct reason that people squeeze with specific hands. Perhaps you should look into that reasoning?

I think you'd have to ask that question to the villains involved, because nobody else can gauge what level of crazy they are.

In a typical game, I'd only be worried about OR having a hand. So I'd say <20% of the time. Maybe even lesser. Once the fishes flat, they don't like to call shoves. Even the TAGs will put you on AA or something and lay down their JJs.

I think that's about what my estimation would be. I was surprised by the estimates in the 60% range.

raise pre the first time.

Even if you had aces there needs to be a specific game type or dynamic to l/rr which is rare in a typical live 2/5 game.

buy in for more than 80 bb's when possible.

Just the fact that I limped UTG (and Im not an idiot) should limit my range a good amount. On a crazy table like this one about the only hands that I might limp UTG are AK/AQ, KQs or pocket pairs of any size.

I didnt limp UTG so I could make this play, but once the Bad LAG raised $30 and then there's 3 calls, the pot looks pretty enticing to steal. I dont think the 2 TAGs ever have QQ+ and I dont think they are ever calling without QQ+.

The uber maniac can have just about any hand other than a premium. If he had something like AQ+ or 88+ he would be 3 betting to about $200.

The bad LAG can have any decent hand. If he has a premium hand here so be it.

Doesn't this all depend on the maniac? Given your description I'm envisioning the craziest players I play with, and I would expect them to call a lot here closing the action, because they're uber-maniacs of epic proportions. Without the maniac in the hand 20%-25% or so sounds right, so really this question depends on our read on the maniac. That makes it difficult to answer without being at the table, but if you end up getting called by the maniac it can't be a surprise.

Also, disagree that our hand doesn't matter, though I understand the point you're making. If we have AQ, we have blockers to the hands that will call us, which isn't the case if we have 98.

Fair enough. I had AK

So I guess the question should be, is this the best play given our whole range. Let's assume we are opening around 16% UTG, the Bad Lag in UTG+2 is opening 33% and the uber maniac is playing like 66% of hands.
The LAG stacks off with the top 4-5% of hands of 33% so 14-15% of the time. The maniac would def 3! the top of his range so I think that leaves like smaller PP's are AQo, AJs type of hands that may look us up, that's 5.2%ish of hands. Now he isnt always doing this so let's say its 50/50 so like 4% of the time he calls. I think we're looking at about 17-20% of the time we are going to get called here, especially because it's such a weird line and loose/bad players tend to have a mental breakdown and call in these spots.
They all fold = +26bb's
We we get called by the UTG+2's 4% range with our whole 16% range
Our equity = 35%
EV = -24bb's (counting the 18 bb's in the middle)

We we get called by the maniac's 4% range with our whole 16% range
Our equity = 47%
EV = +2.5bb's

Putting it together, (26*.8)+(-24*.15)+(2.5*.05) = ~+17 bb

So if this is somewhat profitable with our whole range is it the best play? Probably not, I think raising pre with our strongest range is def a better play. When it comes to whether we should jam I'm not sure because if we are taking our strongest hands out of the above calculated ranges our equity drops quite a bit and it may no longer be the best option. If we take our top hands (QQ+, AK) out that raising is probably a better option preflop the it looks more like:

EV when folds: +26bb
EV when UTG+2 calls: 218*.43 = -6.25bb
EV when maniac calls: 218*.31 = -32.5bb

Putting it together, (26*.8)+(-32.5*.15)+(-6.25*.05) = ~+15.5 bb
So could it be profitable? Yeah, but there are a ton of variables. If you're going to do this you should be prepared for some serious variance and you need to pick a spot pretty carefully. I would like to see this with possibly a hand like KQo or AQo because we block a ton of combos of hands that can call and we are crushed like QQ+ and if we are called we are flipping against 99-JJ.

Edit: Additionally something like KQo or AQo doesnt play all that well multiway OOP anyways so we arent losing a ton of value. That being said, this is all assuming you are in the shove spot you got yourself in. This is almost impossible to predict so why would you be limping KQ or AQ to begin with? The hands that you might like to limp like suited connectors and small pocket pairs are going to be even more crushed if you shove and get called. So A) you shouldn't find yourself in this spot all too often and B) If you do, it's probably with hands like 22-77 or 86s that are going to play much more poorly if you get called and don't block any big hands so you are getting called more often.

Then it's an excellent spot to shove. Only 6 combos are meaningfully ahead of you, and only the bad LAG can hold one of those 6 combos. If maniac is calling super wide, that's fine because you're way ahead of his calling range. Maniac has almost no hands that you mind him calling with, other than the low pocket pairs, and even then your shove is EV if called just by maniac given all of the dead money.

Probably the more interesting question is what the bottom of our shoving range would be. I want a hand that's miles ahead of maniac and has some blockers, so probably AJ is the worst hand I'd shove here.

Did anyone end up calling?

I doubt I would ever limp AJ UTG on this table though. Bad LAG thought a long time and folded. Both TAGs instamucked. The second TAG told me he had TT. Uber maniac thought about it and folded a K face up.

Clearly I could raise the first time but on a table where I know I will get 4+ calls, I think limping and seeing what happens from there is a good play to mix in.

Usually I'd roast someone for limping AK UTG. However in this case while i dont hate it, I only mildly dislike it and it may ee. I just think that when someone has barely played any hands since they sat dont and limp-shove they have a big hand almost always. In this specific scenario it worked out well, but you're limiting yourself to winning 28bb's instead of 50-100 bb's against the LAG or Maniac.

Sure I'm limiting myself if they fold, but Im winning uncontested. That's huge.

If I raise and get the same 4 calls, I will be check/folding and losing 4-5BBs probably 60+% of the time. Other than that I think there are way too many variables to consider. I could win a big pot, lose a big pot or anything in between.

in this specific situation i think doing it with ATC is +ev

and if villains are folding TT then it should be even more +ev

I don't see how doing this with ATC can ever be +ev. I would want at least two high cards that can possible beat pocket 7's who's gonna look at you and say "that guy's full of ****" (not that I would do it that light anyway).