Quote:
Originally Posted by donkbird88
I'd say maybe 10% or less. If it was a tighter UTG+2 I'd say close to 15-20%. I'm not sure what youre trying to do here though. If you have a good hand you just blow everyone off their hands. I also can't imagine limping a top of the range hand UTG since it puts you in a super bad spot. If I saw an unknown not play ANY hands and then limp shove into four people for 100bb's I'd snap fold. I guess my point is that limp shoving a big hand is super bad because you're losing a ton of value, limp shoving a smaller PP like 22-77 is bad because if you get called you're probably crushed and they're super easy to play multiway. If you have suited connectors they also play really well multiway so there's no reason to shove and if you have rags just....Don't shove them?
What exactly were you hoping to achieve by shoving? Yeah you take down 24bbs quite a bit but you also lose 100bbs quite a bit. I'd say the move in this exact spot is marginally +EV because of the players and the pot but it just seems reckless.
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This is a bit contradicting. If Hero gets called 10% of the time then a shove with rags is massively profitable.
We are risking $505 to win $125, so a shove only needs to work 505/630 = 80% of the time to be profitable on FE alone. Even with 72o we'll have about 20% equity, and more realistically maybe 25% with the worst hand we limp UTG with.
EV = .9*125+.1*(1140*.25-505)
= $90.50
The shove has to work about 64% of the time to break even assuming 25% equity when called.
It's really hard to say exactly how much you get called here, but I think this move is underrated and under-utilized. It's probably profitable with even a weak hand containing no blockers, like 87s, and even better with something like A5s, although I'd be concerned about the maniac stacking off light and might prefer to shove a more linear range.