Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
I think the first thing we have to ask ourselves is whether we are comfortable playing for stacks postflop against this guy having only gotten in 6% of our stack preflop. I'm definitely not, so with that in mind I probably check back the flop to allow him to get creative on later streets where we've underrepped our hand and likely kept stacks out of play. If we're fine playing for stacks, then we're cooler with betting and facing a raise, and we could even bet larger to gets stacks in quicker.
I think I disagree with this. There are too many hands that continue on the flop - certainly some beat us (sets and 2-pair - I'm thinking 18 total combos of 66,55,22; 2 combos of 65s; and 4 combos of 43s) but we are ahead of a lot more combos, enough that I don't even think we can count them: FDs, SDs, combo draws, all PPs (can't see him having a PP bigger than JJ), pair and draw (like 54s), just top pair. I would much prefer to bet the flop and get value from those hands than to pot control / underrep here.
Stacking off with an overpair is rarely comfortable, but I'm certainly willing to do it on a draw heavy board against a LAG player.
The min-check-raise is a bit weird and suspicious, but I'm still thinking 3-betting OTF to deny equity to strong drawing hands might be the best play. We win if we can make a hand like Axhh fold, which has I think around 40% equity against us, while also not minding getting it in vs that.
And I know someone is going to say "we just turned our hand face up and villain can play perfectly against us!" Did we? What if we had Axhh, KQhh, KJhh, QJhh, etc.? Or a combo draw like 76hh or 87hh? What if we had 2 pair with 65s, or 66 or 55? We might not iso-raise pre-flop with 66, 55, 65s every time, but they're not impossible raises from LP. So we have many stronger value hands and semi-bluffs here that can all legitimately take the 3-bet all-in line.
3-betting AI here is bad if you only do it with overpairs; but as part of a wider strategy, I think making this play with an overpair is valid.
Last edited by GuitarDean; 01-15-2019 at 03:09 PM.