Line check....
This happens over and over with this villain.
1/2 nl
Stacks $200 effective
Villain: Player I know quite well. Always -- always! -- raises to $22 on button if it's checked to him or limped to him. Plays very tight in EP.
Hero: Regular in this card room. It's not totally clear that I'm on his radar screen, but if I am, he probably perceives me as aggressive and unpredictable.
Preflop, everyone folds to BTN
Villain on BTN raises to $22
Hero in BB with K
Q
3 bets to $50
BTN calls
($100) Flop 972 rainbow
Hero bets $60
Villain folds
It happens this way every single time. He hasn't adjusted in four months of this. If I have a top 10% hand, I 3bet, he calls, and about 70% or more, folds on the c-bet. He never 4bets, and never folds to the 3bet.
So here's my logic.
1. I don't care if he steals my blinds, I just want to get money in the pot if I'm ahead of his range.
2. His strong pre- weak post- play is exploitable.
3. I like 3betting more than flatting because I feel it makes the cbet more dangerous, more effective, and more profitable given his pattern.
4. I've decided to 3-bet the top 10% of cards, giving me some showdown equity in case he calls the c-bet.
5. I'm usually committing a good chunk of my stack, but if I win $50 70% of the time and lose $110 30% of the time, I'm still ahead based on fold equity alone, not counting showdown equity.
I see two drawbacks.
1. I'm putting a good chunk of my stack at risk, and will be courting pot commitment with no guarantee of a strong hand on the turn. (But then, so is he, and I'm not the one open raising 11bb)
2. My play is easily exploitable. I would think that a skilled player could snap me off without too much effort.
Just because it's been working doesn't mean I'm playing optimally... so here are my questions:
1. What do you think about bet sizing?
2. I'm 3betting him on average one time out of ten. Is that enough? Too much?
3. Should I balance or polarize my 3-betting range here, in anticipation that he will eventually adjust? This is a tough question for me, because I really want to bring some showdown equity to the game.
4a. Is there an argument for flatting for pot control?
4b. The SPR cuts both ways here. I think it's an error for him to bomb the turn so hard with this stack size, because he's facing pot commitment on the turn just like I am. Is there a reciprocity issue here, and if so, who has the upper hand?
Interested to hear your thoughts.
Last edited by AbqDave; 12-28-2012 at 04:13 PM.
Reason: doh