Recently I played in a 1/2 game and found myself in a spot where I knew I could pick up the pot if I fought hard enough for it, but looking back at it I was wondering if I made a mistake with my bet sizing.

Hero is TAG who is on a heater at the time of hand, sitting on $800. The V in this hand is somewhat new to the game, he basically nut peddles but his bet sizing is garbage IMO and I try taking advantage of the this leak when spots present themselves; like if he has a big stack, Im IP, we're HU.

V has a range of JJ+, AQs+, AKo when he is raising PF.

V ($300) opens hand UTG+2 for $8 and the rest of the table folds to me OTB. My hand was Q8dd and I felt with V's range (JJ+, AQs+, AKo) that I could win a nice pot if I connected well or I could take advantage of scare cards if I missed completely. The SB and BB both fold and we see a flop.

Pot $19
Flop 8h-10d-Jh

V fires out $12 and at this point I figure I'm definitely behind. He isn't known for C-betting so I put him on JJ+ because any AKo / AQo hands he has checks his gutters. As for AK / AQ of hearts I'm not sure how he plays such big draws, I haven't seen enough of how he plays.

I decide just to call w/ my bottom pair + gutter + bdfd.

Pot $43
Turn 7c

With the potential straight up V decides to check at which point I pick my spot. He looks very unhappy with the 7c and actually looks like it kicked him in the stomach. I fire out $25 repping the straight. I now also discount a set of Jacks as I'm sure he would continue betting this turn. I put him on KK or AA both he would not lay down to this turn but I felt I had to bet the turn in order to be able to bluff the river successfully.

Pot $93
River 7c

V again checks and is showing clear disappointment with how the hand is going.

I know he is capable of laying down over pairs in this spot so I fired out $60 but still feel I could have played the hand better.

Any suggestions would be appreciated, especially my bet sizing on the turn and river and any other insights into different lines would be great.

Thanks
-CF

I rarely agree with a bluff spot being good at 1/2, but this one looks so. You have the right image and the right V.

Turn bet is a bit small, imo. Also, though JJ should be discounted, it should not be eliminated from his range. Some V's get super mubsy with a 4-straight out, and even though they aren't folding, they hate life and try to play pot control. Also unclear why you don't have QQ in his range. Sure, you block it, but there are still 3 combos left.

AP, river sizing is fine.

It's generally ok. Most Vs shouldn't continue here with AA/KK/QQ as they should pretty much always be beat. but I agree with Garick, turn sizing needs to be closer to $35/$35 here.

Also, what was the actual river? Just another 7?

I'd actually like the river more if it didn't pair the 7. You shouldn't really have any 7x in your range, and all flopped 2p are now counterfit so from that perspective it's a somewhat good river card for him.

Still I think he should be laying down most of his range, your line should be fine.

Disagree w the line. Not a fan of IP bluffing even the nittiest of players with a FDFD on board. Just too many ck-c in their arsenal when the FD misses... And it takes a 4 liner (that you really don't even have many bluffs on anyway/more value bets) to consider it.

AP, turn sizing is good as long as you intend on betting non-9 rivers big AND you have a semi competent image AND you aren't giving off any live tells AND you think he might think you'd play the nuts this way AND you know you have to bet more (than 60) an AK7H riv...

I know I bluff at 1/2, 1/3 and 2/5 well more than the average player.

Bluffing villains off overpairs at 1/2 isn't generally the most profitable business ime. But I get our read.

We do have a good image however v is somewhat immune to it being new other than our stack.

Decent turn to bluff though and I agree you probably have to be willing to barrel a lot of rivers I still might go a tad bigger though to increase the success rate right here ott.

I'm not sure this river is one I love though and in my mind this river downgrades the bluffing opportunity slightly.

Obv you're repping the 9 but with the board pairing otr he does at least have nut 2p now vs our range. In terms of relative hand strength that shouldn't matter much but this is 1/2. And also since 1/2 players are notoriously bad at value betting rivers villain could be emboldened to call when we bet the board pairing river. And the presence of bricked FDs doesn't help.

So the turn is a good spot but this river it's just ok IMO. I don't hate still following through but I think our FE actually drops a little on this river.

Don't like it. Jacks full in his range and people marry overpairs at 1/2. I expect AA and KK to call "just to see it".

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I'm fine with taking the shot. Pot will be 19 with 292 behind. Nice SPR to move him off an overpair. If he's aware you're on a heater, I believe that helps V believe you've out-flopped/-drawn him. Your image is right, assuming V is aware of it. You're HUIP. Good spot.

As an aside, if V showed himself to be weak tight, I'd look to move him off hands routinely any time I could iso. His willingness to fold is the most important part of making this work.

Flop is great. Bonus! you have some equity. Not really part of the plan, but it's always nice. So now you're actually value betting on 8's and Q's. But 7's, 9's, T's, J's, and hearts are all plausible scare cards. I like the call.

If you plan to take the shot, it's a turn and river bluff or neither IMO. You're going to need to bet both in order to get him off his range. I realize you're not suggesting this, but just for clarity I think bluffing only the turn has highly negative EV.

Turn: bink! We hit the nuts (well, we're going to pretend we hit the nuts). I'd go larger: at least 35 and I like 40. In addition to a larger bet generally representing a larger hand (to unobservant V's), I think he's likely to call this and then fold to the river barrel, so you want to make this as large as you can. Furthermore, many LLSNL V's consider the absolute size of the bet as well as (or sometimes even more than) it's size relative to the pot. By bloating the pot on the turn, you make the river barrel absolutely larger and therefore more scary. Of course, you lose more if it doesn't work but that was a fear we got over before taking the line.

Assuming river is some other 7, it's not a great card, but I think the bluff depends not so much on our telling a great story but rather on the mubsiness of many LLSNL V's in the face of strong aggression for big money. As one V once told me (after another V had folded to a big river bet), "I would have thought you were FoS, but I would have folded anyway: too much money to find out."

I think 2/3 pot is about the smallest I'd bet. I'd make it closer to pot size, maybe 75 as played. I really want to discourage curious calls and leverage the absolute bet sizing fear many LLSNL V's have.

Hand is well played IMO. River card is not a bad card at all. V would have lead out his full house on the river expecting us to call with our straight. It also adds to the "scariness" factor when getting V to lay down his overpair. This guy is not hand reading at any level higher than level 1 so he folds a lot to a large bet here a very high percentage of the time.