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| Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies. |
02-13-2012, 07:37 PM
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#1
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centurion
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 156
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This is a fold, right?
1/2 NL. I'm up $450 and am getting ready to leave. Table has been fairly passive. I'm UTG, racking up my chips, and get dealt K  T  . I think to myself, "what the hell, might as well call two dollars and fold to a raise." UTG+2 raises to $8, six callers. I think to myself, "Aaa, its only six more dollars, plus its my last hand, might as well call."
Flop comes Q  J  J  pot= $51. I notice that I have an open-ended straight flush draw. I lead out for $45. What better flop could I hope for, right? Action goes: Fold, Fold, Fold, villian in MP3 raises all-in to $180, fold, fold, hero?
Villian is fairly solid. He knows that I'm not betting this with air, but is well aware that I will bet my draws. I can safely rule out QQ, as he would likely three-bet it pf with the preceeding pf action. I figure that he will let me hang myself with QJ, which leaves hands like KJ, TJ, AJ or an A high flush draw. Am I missing anything?
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02-13-2012, 07:48 PM
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#2
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adept
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: meh
Posts: 801
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Re: This is a fold, right?
Preflop i would raise or fold the first time. Open limping is bad especially with a RIO hand.
The pot should ~$60 otf so you may have done the math wrong.
As played you did flop a monster. I think you have the most fold equity by C/Raising big.
As played, call it off. You have so many outs, are getting better than 2 to 1, and are pretty much never drawing dead.
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02-13-2012, 07:59 PM
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#3
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centurion
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 156
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Re: This is a fold, right?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Redsaddict
Preflop i would raise or fold the first time. Open limping is bad especially with a RIO hand.
The pot should ~$60 otf so you may have done the math wrong.
As played you did flop a monster. I think you have the most fold equity by C/Raising big.
As played, call it off. You have so many outs, are getting better than 2 to 1, and are pretty much never drawing dead.
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I agree that I sort of hosed myself by limping pf. On the flop, there were 7 people to the flop x $8 - $4 rake - $1 BB Jackpot= $51. I figured that I had less than 12 outs as any ace other than A of spades was not a clean out, the board could pair, or I may be drawing against an ace flush draw.
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02-13-2012, 08:01 PM
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#4
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centurion
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 112
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Re: This is a fold, right?
If your plan going into the hand was to play cautiously and not get in big trouble with this hand you probably shouldnt have bet the flop oop into a paired board with this many players involved. Most boats wouldnt shove here though ive seen it happen...anyhow you have a good amount of outs to draw to. His most likely holding is trip jacks obv. As played I'd call.
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02-13-2012, 08:02 PM
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#5
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centurion
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 112
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Re: This is a fold, right?
Didnt realize there was a bad beat jackpot. That makes it an instacall.
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02-13-2012, 08:17 PM
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#6
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enthusiast
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 86
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Re: This is a fold, right?
You're getting about 2:1 on a call (pot = $51 + $45 + $180 = $276, and it's $135 to call), with two outs to the stone nuts, 7 more flush outs, 4 more str8 outs, if he's not boated. If he's on a better flush draw, you lose your flush outs (except the 9s), and pick up six outs to pairs. Plus, if he has trips, some of your outs give him a boat. So, you have maybe 12 outs twice. This seems like a straightforward call to me.
Btw, Redsaddict, what's a RIO hand?
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02-13-2012, 08:27 PM
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#7
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grinder
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 443
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Re: This is a fold, right?
Might have missed out on the bbj.
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02-13-2012, 08:55 PM
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#8
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journeyman
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: 2/5 NL in the flesh
Posts: 360
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Re: This is a fold, right?
Quote:
Originally Posted by ranceg29
Didnt realize there was a bad beat jackpot. That makes it an instacall.
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Every time a flop like this comes off 3 or 4 regulars start murmuring about the BBJ. What a bunch of droooolers.
Seriously I think you are about 45% here. Gamble a little with your winnings, +EV considering P.O.s.
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02-13-2012, 09:23 PM
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#9
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banned
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,612
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Re: This is a fold, right?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Redsaddict
Preflop i would raise or fold the first time. Open limping is bad especially with a RIO hand.
The pot should ~$60 otf so you may have done the math wrong.
As played you did flop a monster. I think you have the most fold equity by C/Raising big.
As played, call it off. You have so many outs, are getting better than 2 to 1, and are pretty much never drawing dead.
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Agreed on c/r flop, as played its a supersnap call..and its not possible for him to be drawing dead...
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02-13-2012, 09:34 PM
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#10
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enthusiast
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 62
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Re: This is a fold, right?
Quote:
Originally Posted by TopGun in VA
You're getting about 2:1 on a call (pot = $51 + $45 + $180 = $276, and it's $135 to call), with two outs to the stone nuts, 7 more flush outs, 4 more str8 outs, if he's not boated. If he's on a better flush draw, you lose your flush outs (except the 9s), and pick up six outs to pairs. Plus, if he has trips, some of your outs give him a boat. So, you have maybe 12 outs twice. This seems like a straightforward call to me.
Btw, Redsaddict, what's a RIO hand?
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Reverse Implied Odds. K-10 has RIO because it will give action and lose $ to so many hands that fit in a standard range. If you pair and get action, better kicker is likely. If you flop a SD, it always includes boards that make big hands for your opponents so not much fold equity either. On a Q-J board in a 8 way pot, someone is usually coming with you.
Glad you asked that. It was a good refresher typing it out.
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02-14-2012, 03:46 AM
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#11
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newbie
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 46
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Re: This is a fold, right?
Easy call. I like the check raise better on the flop since all the money's getting in anyhow. A CR might even get a hand like J10 to fold.
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