1/3NLHE @Crown Casino in Melbourne
Hero just transferred to a new table and has no knowledge of Villains.

Hero: Mid 20's caucasian male with a starting stack of $500
V1: Middle aged cauasian male and has Hero covered
V2: Early 30's asian male with a $2k+ stack. Perceived as a solid player.

OTTH: V1 opens UTG to $6. Hero flats in MP with 33, V2 3bets on the BTN to $25. Both V1 and Hero call. Pot is $78

Flop is TT3r, V1 donk leads $27 and both hero and V2 calls. Pot is $159

Turn is a K, completing the rainbow. V1 checks, Hero bets $70, V2 raises to $170, V1 folds and Hero?

Turn is one of the two worst cards for us.

Flop call is fine, we want to keep BTN in the hand with a hand that is drawing to 4 outs at most and normally 2.
There are no flush draws, so BTN should never be overplaying AKs here which binked a pair+flush draw ott.
And most players really shouldn't be raising AA here since it's just so stupid since we have Tx/33 most of the time.

Buut AT/JT might raise the turn here if they 3bet. If being the operative word.

In game I'd probably never fold because I suck, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's the right play.

Fwiw: If the turn was a 9 or less and he raised, I'd happily gii with him.

never ever folding. V1 has 88, 99, something like that . V2 is trickier, because by flatting on the flop, you are repping a T. So if he is raising you on the turn after you donk out, he is repping KK.

still not folding though. cant shove over the top on the turn because he is most likely folding everything but KK.

flat the turn. then, either C/C any river but a T or K. or, donk out 150 on the river

I would fold preflop to the first raise. If this goes HU, I'm not convinced setmining here is really profitable, especially if larger stacks go in, unless it goes a lot more multiway (where we are getting far better immediate odds preflop, which makes making up the necessary IO a lot easier postflop). Plus we could get squeezed (like we did here). Even calling the 3bet is kinda meh; at least now we're getting better immediate odds of almost 3:1, and overall our implied odds will be 16+, hopefully against a tighter 3bet range. However, none of these guys sound like idiots. If all the money goes in postflop, I'm not convinced our set is good enough to be profitable here.

The SPR is 6, which means we'll be able to get in stacks fairly trivially over 3 streets. Board isn't drawy, so no scare cards to kill action. So I also just call flop and hope guy behind comes along / gets outta line.

I would donk more on the turn in order to makes stacks more easy to play for by the river, at least $120.

Unless our opponent is ******ed, the only worse hand he's probably going to call off the rest of his chips with is if he has Tx, so I'd probably just ship now. We'll probably lose Kx, but we were probably going to lose them to a river donk anyways.

For me, this all goes back to preflop. Do we *honestly* think that setmining in this spot (OOP to a good Villain and possibly one other non-******ed guy in the hand) is going to be profitable in just a 3way pot? I'm not convinced it is.

GcluelessNLnoobG

GG, I cannot fathom folding any pair preflop here for just over 1% of our stack. We don't have to try to stack off ~170 bbs every time we hit a set for the preflop call to be more than profitable.

Never folding this. There is an off-chance that villain 3b with KK, KT (or TT), but if that's the case, chalk it up to cooler/variance and move on. There are a ton of Tx and Kx hands that you are ahead of here, as well as QJ and AA.

It would definitely be a nitty fold, but the more I play the more I expect it is a correct one unless we are up against a very poor opponent.

We're only getting about 1.5:1 immediate odds, which needs we need to make up *at least* 7 bets postflop to make this just breakeven (*if* we're purely setmining, which admittedly we might not be), which means that if this pot ends up HU we'll need 3 bets to go in postflop (either 3 streets of betting or a raise and a bet). Not convinced this is going to happen enough, plus taking into account "coolers" where we lose our stack, plus taking into account times we spew when not flopping a set, plus times we get squeezed behind like here, where this is actually going to be profitable against non-morans.

GimoG

Except those 7 "bets" equals $42 in this instance. That's not exactly tough to accomplish at 1/3 LLSNL.

In a pot that will be ~$12 HU (if we factor in some rake/BBJ/etc.), getting in $42 postflop still more-or-less equates to needing to get that third postflop bet in before making any money.

GimoG

$15 on the flop.
$30 on the turn.
#win

Let alone the $45, $55, $80 whatever we might get on the river.

That's my point. The first two bets ~break us even; we *need* the third bet. And note how it *really* thinly breaks us even, cuz when you start factoring in times we don't get paid off at all, or spew when we don't flop a set, or get it in vs a two-outer and he hits the 8%+ of the time he will, or when we flop a set and we're no good, blah blah blah, that third bet becomes even more necessary all the time.

I mean, obviously nitty. But it's just kinda where I'm at personally evaluating my tables right now, and I'm at least attempting to evaluate whether I'm overestimating my true IO in the majority of the situations (and I believe I am). Always interesting how we're all in different stages of our poker timeline and how I'm sure everything is viewed differently thru whatever goggles we happen to be wearing.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I think this comes down to how often V2 is 3betting pre.

Hands that 3bet pre, call flop and then raise turn : KK, AT imo. If btn was indeed a solid player, as you have described him, I doubt he raises you on turn with AA when you have shown a lot of strength in the hand. Can't see him overcalling with AK on flop either.

In my local games, the bad players tend to have two open raise sizes, 5x or more with premiums and close to min with "pot builders". If V2 is truly a solid player, his 3b range here should be pretty wide on the button vs a min raise and flat. You are repping Tx though, so he would have to be value owning himself with AT (maybe QT or JT suited). Had this been a 5x pre and a flat and then a 3b from V2, he may never has those hands pre. Not a slam dunk, but I am never folding this spot.

Pre is whatever if you have a loose, gambley table that doesnt 3-bet.

If you've got a lot of 3-bet happy players behind you, you should fold pre first time. Second time around calling is fine

raise the flop. with a paired board like this you really aren't going to make any money unless someone flopped trips with you and you want to raise the flop to be able to get stacks in by the river. and just calling allows V2 to see a turn getting5:1 direct odds and the right implied odds to turn a full house. any pocket pair has a 10:1 chance of making a bigger full house on the turn. if V1 had bet closer to full pot a call might be more in line though i would still raise that bet. you should be playing flopped under full houses fast generally.

i cant stress enough how much i really hate this flop call. raising will be much more profitable in the long run.

AP i dont really think you can fold though its pretty apparent he has KK.


even im not so tight as to be folding a pair over 100bbs deep to a minraise from UTG.

youre neglecting the fact that we have position and a pair that still might win in a showdown.

I'm not totally neglecting it showdown value, but I'm also making a decent assumption that for the most part we're setmining (it's unclear if OP is planning on doing something other than that postflop or not). But again, you have to factor in the times we don't flop a set and put money in postflop when behind (or even when ahead but let the in-position player catch up by the river). Also keeping in mind we're only in MP as the first caller (at my game I would *never* end up in position here), plus facing a minraise (almost a straddle) which will induce a raise here like the vast majority of the time at my table.

1000+ hours ago I would have lol'ed at the thought of folding preflop given these IO. But I'm just not as convinced as I once was that this spot is actually profitable against the current landscape of opponents / table conditions (with profitability the *only* thing that matters).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Yeah, this is really a preflop fold. Setmining here is not profitable with a pair as low as 33. I might setmine here with 66 or 77 if I am feeling in that moment but even those are probably bad calls. My pairs I am flatting with here are 88-JJ. 4bet preflop hands like QQ+ and AKs/o for value and specifically AJo, KQo, A9s, A5s as 4B! bluffs for balance.

These very low pair set mine plays work best against bad players; thus, hitting your set (or boat in this case) is not your only way to win as you can push them off with your bluffs when you whiff. Against a player you rate as very solid who has position #muckitpre