Flopped set, wet board, multi-way pot

[SaintTino]

1/2 NL full table. Hero is 30 year old regular that most people recognize at this poker room and is known for playing aggressive. Playing at this table for about 2 hours and has a stack of $267 to start this hand. Most pots to this point have been won without showdown. First hour into the session, Hero turns a set of 4's and stacks a fish, and that's been the only hand that Hero has had to show. Aside from that, been card dead for a while, mostly folding.

This will start as a multi-way pot, but there is only one villain that will be the focus here. He is a regular, mid 40's white guy that is a successful business owner. He wears the same ball cap that has his business name on it every time he plays. He's usually pretty quiet, but mild mannered and polite. If you engage him in conversation he will talk back. Not overly talkative, but seemingly friendly. Enjoys gambling and has little regard for money. Will get it all in 100+ bb with 4 outers, and has a history of getting very lucky and winning huge pots. He usually plays 2/5 and is actually on the list waiting to transfer to the 2/5 table, so while he waits he's sitting at our 1/2 table. He has me covered and he is two seats to my right in the cutoff.

Here's the hand:

Hero is in SB with 55

6 people call including villain. With so many people in the pot, I elect to just call here with my small pair and hope to hit a set. I see no point in bloating the pot right now, and if I miss the flop, I'm done with this hand. BB checks. Pot is $18 Flop is:
582

I made a decision to check my set here with the intention of raising any bet. BB bets $15, 3 callers and instead of raising, I changed my mind and decided to flat call. The range of hands in the pot right now could be straight draws, flush draws and maybe just a pair of 8's. My hand is very well disguised right now and I'd like to keep it that way. If the turn is not a 9, 4 or a diamond I think I'm golden and I'm going to get it popping. Pot is $78. Turn card is K

I check again because I have a fairly strong reason to believe that my villain here will bet into this pot. I know that he is capable of floating that flop bet and may have hit that King. BB checks as does the the two MP, and villain bets $25. Now is my chance to get it in so I pop it to $75, everyone folds to villain who glances at me, thinks for a few seconds and then makes the call. Pot is $228 and I have $175 left in my stack.

The river is A completing the flush draw and a possible but unlikely straight. Action is to me........what now????

[progress]

Depending on how much each of you had at the start of the hand, You maybe should have went all in on the turn. At least you should have raised bigger. Depending on how much you have right now, you should either bet and fold if raised or bet then call or check then call.

I think you should bet then call and pray that he has a worse hand. He might have kq, or A8. If he hit the flush, he hit the flush, raise more on turn to push him out next time if the beat bugs you

[Ollieeeee]

First of all I would bet flop almost always here. As played raise raise flop, HU a call is ok but 4 way calling oop sucks imo.

I would probably lead turn because if V is on a draw he checks back almost always, why give him a free card, you've already said he loves to gamble and will call all ins with 4 outers. I would probably bet near pot.

As played shove river.

[paradroid12]

every street is questionable except the preflop call, which can sometimes be a raise obv

don't c/c flop, c/r ... (betting is fine, too)
~ if you check flop you have to raise when 4 people put money in. this is the DREAM SCENARIO you were imagining when you hatched the plan to c/r in your little reptilian brain. So raise it NOW. There are 1000 straight and flush draws on this flop and you're asking to get cracked. With 4 people putting in a pot-sized bet, you'll get action on your c/r. you're leaving money on the table. I would make it at least $40 more on the flop.

raise more on the turn
~ when you decide to raise turn, you still have $225 in your stack and there's $128 in the pot. I think you need to make it at least $75 more ($100 total), which pretty much commits you to the pot and is a good reason to just ship it on the turn. you're offering almost 3:1, which means he's going to correctly call with all his draws. which is exactly why the river sucks...

the river sucks because you misplayed earlier streets
~ you had 2 opportunities to increase the size of the pot so you wouldn't be in a river guessing game with most of your stack still in front of you, but you opted to call and make a less than 1/2 pot raise. he can have a lot of hands that beat you and a lot that you're crushing.

my advice: arbitrarily decide whether he's more likely to bluff or call light and then take the appropriate action. your play of the hand has made it certain that he will own you no matter what you do on the river though. oh, and it's good to bet when you have the nuts, in case you were curious.

[k1ng_17]

I agree with paradroid, you checked flop to set up the check raise and 4 people called the initial bet that was golden for you to raise as initially planned. If played that way the cbet on the turn imo would have won you the pot there, not placing you in the questionable spot you are in on river.

That being said, as played tho you have to bet the river and hope if he raises he's giving you +ev to make the call. If he has the flush its a cooler hand at best the way you played it

[SirRawrsALot]

Grunch

Originally Posted by SaintTino

Hero is in SB with 55

6 people call including villain. With so many people in the pot, I elect to just call here with my small pair and hope to hit a set. I see no point in bloating the pot right now, and if I miss the flop, I'm done with this hand. BB checks. Pot is $18 Flop is:
582


I made a decision to check my set here with the intention of raising any bet. BB bets $15, 3 callers and instead of raising, I changed my mind and decided to flat call. The range of hands in the pot right now could be straight draws, flush draws and maybe just a pair of 8's. My hand is very well disguised right now and I'd like to keep it that way. If the turn is not a 9, 4 or a diamond I think I'm golden and I'm going to get it popping. Pot is $78.


Gah. So much $$$ in the pot I think I c/r and try to set up a turn shove. I don't think a 9/4/d are the only cards you need to worry about. People could be calling with A3s/97s/46s. Basically, any A, 3, 4, 6, 7, or 9 can easily give one of your 3 opponents a straight. Make it like $70 here. Even with one call, that puts the pot at like $185-ish. EZ shove on any turn.


Turn card is K

I check again because I have a fairly strong reason to believe that my villain here will bet into this pot. I know that he is capable of floating that flop bet and may have hit that King. BB checks as does the the two MP, and villain bets $25. Now is my chance to get it in so I pop it to $75, everyone folds to villain who glances at me, thinks for a few seconds and then makes the call. Pot is $228 and I have $175 left in my stack.

Raise more. After you call the $25 there is $128 in the pot and you only make it $50 more... Not a fan. Make it like $100 here.

The river is A completing the flush draw and a possible but unlikely straight. Action is to me........what now????

Ugh. If we check, how likely would villain shove as a bluff sensing we are scared of the flush? At the same time, how often does he actually have a flush? 3 people check to him on a 852ddxKx board. Why bet 1/3 the pot as a semi-bluff against 3 people when you can either bet bigger to try and get folds, or check behind and get a free card.

I think I shove. Hope he has 2 pair. If there's a good chance he ships the river on a bluff when checked to, c/c, give him a chance to bluff.

[LOLshoveaments]

Completely butchered the flop, easiest raise of all time. OF ALL TIME!

[samo]

As played, C/C a reasonable bet but not stack. V line leans more flush than 2-pr. Shoving will only get a call from a better hand.

PF - ok.
OTF - lead.
OTT - lead.

If V is your target, I suggest getting chips in earlier than later especially given: draws on the board, and vulnerability of 4th set. Checking the flop and turn is a losing value proposition long-term.

[mtagliaf]

The King on the turn shows you why a flop checkraise would have been better. Top pairs and 99/TT cannot continue (many weak players limp with medium pairs instead of raising). Plus, you have 4 people who have already shown some interest in this hand. One of them has a flush draw, and their dead money is now yours for the taking. Take it!

You also have a "gambler" as your villain, who sounds like he doesn't care much about math - why not force him to make bad decisions earlier instead of later?

Agree with shove river as played.

[SaintTino]

Originally Posted by paradroid12

every street is questionable except the preflop call, which can sometimes be a raise obv

don't c/c flop, c/r ... (betting is fine, too)
~ if you check flop you have to raise when 4 people put money in. this is the DREAM SCENARIO you were imagining when you hatched the plan to c/r in your little reptilian brain. So raise it NOW. There are 1000 straight and flush draws on this flop and you're asking to get cracked. With 4 people putting in a pot-sized bet, you'll get action on your c/r. you're leaving money on the table. I would make it at least $40 more on the flop.raise more on the turn
~ when you decide to raise turn, you still have $225 in your stack and there's $128 in the pot. I think you need to make it at least $75 more ($100 total), which pretty much commits you to the pot and is a good reason to just ship it on the turn. you're offering almost 3:1, which means he's going to correctly call with all his draws. which is exactly why the river sucks...

the river sucks because you misplayed earlier streets
~ you had 2 opportunities to increase the size of the pot so you wouldn't be in a river guessing game with most of your stack still in front of you, but you opted to call and make a less than 1/2 pot raise. he can have a lot of hands that beat you and a lot that you're crushing.

my advice: arbitrarily decide whether he's more likely to bluff or call light and then take the appropriate action. your play of the hand has made it certain that he will own you no matter what you do on the river though. oh, and it's good to bet when you have the nuts, in case you were curious.

I agree, I really misplayed the flop. Looking back on it, I can clearly see how I screwed up and put myself in a very tough spot OOP. In the moment I thought that I was making a good decision by not revealing the strength of my hand on the flop, but all I was doing was making it easier for everyone to chase. I think the more appropriate line here would be to c/r the flop, then ship the turn. Lesson learned...thanks for the info.

[mtagliaf]

I often worry about revealing the strength of my hand too early. Then I remember that bad players don't care and call anyway.

I played a hand in a live game very similar to this one this weekend. 33 from the small blind, limped pot, hit my set. I checkraised to 35BB on the flop, and got two callers. Then I shoved the turn (about 70BB) and got one caller, with his flush draw.