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Flopped nuts vs. Nit - how to max value?

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07-17-2017 , 10:02 AM

twitcherroo

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Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 2,482

$1/3 hero playing very LAG. Don't normally LAG but table was loose passive so it seemed appropriate. In control of table. Very friendly game, several regs, playing 6-7 handed.

V is late 50's woman. Nice lady, basic understanding of game but super nitty and MUBsy.

V in BB, H on BTN

Folds to H, raises to $9 w/ K10o. SB folds, V takes a couple of seconds and calls.

Flop ($17)
QdJd9c

V checks, Hero? (H has no diamond). V is tight, trying to get her to pay me with an absolute cooler is going to be difficult. Hero checks back the flop.

Turn ($17)
Ac

V leads for $15, Hero?

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07-17-2017 , 10:04 AM

teddyrowe9

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Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 1,432

bet/bet/bet

as played, raise

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07-17-2017 , 10:04 AM

Mat the Gambler

adept

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 1,170

The board is now double suited, so obviously you have to raise as more than half the deck will either kill your action or give your opponent a free card. Raise to 40.

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07-17-2017 , 10:10 AM

twitcherroo

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Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 2,482

Quote:

Originally Posted by teddyrowe9

bet/bet/bet

as played, raise

When you bet the flop against this V, what do you expect V to do? What range would she have to have for this to be a 3-streets of value hand? What range is a 1 or 2 street range? Or 0 street? I ask because I don't think V is every going 3 streets here.

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07-17-2017 , 10:10 AM

johnny_on_the_spot

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Flop check is terrible. QJ9 smashes a calling range. You're gonna get called by all sorts of 2P+, 1 pair, pair+draws, naked OESDs, naked FDFDs.

If V has no ability to call a flop bet, there are few cards that can come that will change that.

Additionally, your hand is its strongest it can get, I tend to play flopped nut straights a little quicker on wet boards

AP OTT, raise to 35

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07-17-2017 , 10:16 AM

MIB211

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Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 3,010

I would have just bet flop. She won't pay you without a cooler, but your hand isn't so strong that you can let her improve. Basically the only way she improves to a strong, second best hand is if she binks a set on the turn, but more likely if she's drawing to improve it's because she has a flush draw and can beat you.

Have to raise turn. I'd make it $50.

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07-17-2017 , 10:16 AM

twitcherroo

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Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 2,482

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mat the Gambler

The board is now double suited, so obviously you have to raise as more than half the deck will either kill your action or give your opponent a free card. Raise to 40.

Mat - that's where my head was. 1/2 the deck kills the action, only value (if any) is hitting pot on the turn. Even a brick river doesn't help me (doesn't hurt either but I don't think it loosens her up).

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07-17-2017 , 10:21 AM

twitcherroo

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Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot

Against 'normal' player I agree I'd pound the flop because I'll get called by draws but I don't think she'd call on a draw unless it was a nut/nut combo.

I do like the idea that really there are very few turn cards that make her more likely to call without catching me.

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07-17-2017 , 10:23 AM

djevans

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Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 5,050

Quote:

Originally Posted by twitcherroo

flop check is terrible and he listed all the reasons why.

As played raise. You got a fantastic turn card which she could have if she didn't connect with the board and it's draw heavy so she won't fold often.

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07-17-2017 , 10:23 AM

#10

twitcherroo

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Quote:

Originally Posted by MIB211

I think you're right, smallish flop c-bet probably would have been smarter.

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07-17-2017 , 10:43 AM

#11

twitcherroo

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Spoiler
I raised to $50 on the turn for all the reasons listed about. She went in the tank, got MUBsy, ignored the fact I've raised 35% of the pots and declares "I guess you have the straight" and folds. Says she had AJ and turned Aces up. Hard to believe anyone would fold that to a LAGgy player but I sort of believe she had it.

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07-17-2017 , 10:55 AM

#12

sauhund

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Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 5,936

well, even if she folded AJ here, she most likely calls you down if you just take a standard bet/bet/bet line.
If she isn´t lying, you just won the minimum against the range you are targeting (and would have obv won even less against all the JT and blaggablagga combinations)

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07-17-2017 , 11:04 AM

#13

johnny_on_the_spot

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Quote:

Originally Posted by twitcherroo

So if she's not going to continue unless she has the nut draw you let her see the turn for free???

Sorry, but that is a bad way to think about it. If she's not going to continue unless she has the nut draw or a made hand, you have to bet the flop. DUCY?

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07-17-2017 , 11:09 AM

#14

johnny_on_the_spot

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Quote:

Originally Posted by twitcherroo

Spoiler

I raised to $50 on the turn for all the reasons listed about. She went in the tank, got MUBsy, ignored the fact I've raised 35% of the pots and declares "I guess you have the straight" and folds. Says she had AJ and turned Aces up. Hard to believe anyone would fold that to a LAGgy player but I sort of believe she had it.

Jfc that's terrible. Gotta love the soul read that's correct. Look on the bright side though, you raise here with a lot of hands that are crushed by 2P and she still folds

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07-17-2017 , 11:11 AM

#15

QuadJ

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If villain is that nitty you don't make your money by hitting hands. You make your money by bluffing them off hands on the flop and turn. Get heads up to the flop and bet all but the worst flops, most turns and only continue on river if you have a hand or the situation is particularly favorable.

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07-17-2017 , 11:40 AM

#16

hfrog355

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Flop check gave me AIDS.

Quote:

Originally Posted by teddyrowe9

bet/bet/bet

as played, raise

This.

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07-17-2017 , 11:52 AM

#17

sauhund

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Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 5,936

HIV is usually a bloodborne infection.
I hope you don´t have the full disease outbreak yet.

Other than that, I agree.

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07-17-2017 , 12:09 PM

#18

wj94

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Best flop to bet with the nuts in history. Worst flop check in history. I mean really, why? Your hand is not going to improve. You have the nuts. Any K, T, 8, diamond, or board pairing card is bad either for killing your action or reducing the strength of your hand. That's half the deck!

Start by betting $20-25 on the flop. She's either got a hand she's gonna put some money in with or she has nothing and will fold anyway.

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07-17-2017 , 12:22 PM

#19

Dizzyqtp

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Quote:

Originally Posted by teddyrowe9

bet/bet/bet

as played, raise

thread was solved after the first reply.

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07-17-2017 , 12:32 PM

#20

twitcherroo

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Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 2,482

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuadJ

Agree. I pillaged the table unchecked for several hours doing exactly that.

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07-17-2017 , 12:59 PM

#21

BadlyBeaten

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Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 2,300

The problem is that if (1) you raise her and (2) the next card doesn't improve her hand, you're not collecting anything more. So the answer, I think, is to raise OTT as much as you believe she will call.

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07-17-2017 , 01:50 PM

#22

donkatruck

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 1,911

General rule, I play flopped straights fast, especially if there is a flush draw present. Your straight isn't getting any better. Bet it now.

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07-17-2017 , 02:11 PM

#23

hfrog355

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Playing straights fast is almost always better. LLSNL players don't believe that you flopped a straight and consistently level themselves into calling with lesser hands. OP raised from the button and has been playing a lot of hands. His range for cbetting this board is an ocean wide. You don't have to bomb it, but you do need to bet.

Quote:

Originally Posted by sauhund

HIV is usually a bloodborne infection.
I hope you don´t have the full disease outbreak yet.

Other than that, I agree.

Quote

07-17-2017 , 02:33 PM

#24

sauhund

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Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 5,936

Quote:

Originally Posted by hfrog355

I love to be a smartass here since this vid actually proves my unfunny point brudi

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07-17-2017 , 02:38 PM

#25

ZuneIt

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Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 2,160

Quote:

Originally Posted by twitcherroo

[Grunch] Raise $20 as she has 2 pair [AJ minimum] & will not fold. Overbet the pot [120%] on the River, if she cks & she will think you're trying to push a lady around with your LAGISH, BADASS EGO SELF.

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