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Flopped the 2nd nuts, disaster on the river Flopped the 2nd nuts, disaster on the river

07-29-2015 , 02:46 PM
1-3 NL

Hero: 24 y/o white male, having a strong session, loose in position, tight oop

V1: A classic TAG, a bit shortstacked at the moment though, doesn't play many hands

V2: Solid reg, having a good session, no real reads on him though

Hero in MP: A4ss limps to open the action

V1 calls on CO

V2 calls on BU

SB calls, BB checks

Flop: 2h3h5d

Hero leads for $15 V1 calls, V2 calls, Blinds fold

Turn: 10d

Hero leads out for $40, V1 calls, V2 calls

River: 5h

Hero checks, V1 is all in for $30, V2 calls, Hero?

That's $30 into a $173 pot after rake, but everything got there on the river. I feel I almost have to call with those odds but how can I be good? Should I really fold to such a small river bet?
Flopped the 2nd nuts, disaster on the river Quote
07-29-2015 , 03:04 PM
Raise or fold pre.

I'd be potting the turn, which may make the river decision moot. As played, I'm not folding.
Flopped the 2nd nuts, disaster on the river Quote
07-29-2015 , 03:04 PM
Obvious call and maybe a raise.

V1 was never getting proper odds, shortstacked, to chase anything. Maybe he was still chasing the flush draw, but if so it was a bad move on his part. Pair of 9s or something like that seems reasonable, or something like 23s. It seems like he had a good holding and sort of wandered into being committed, so then he just shoved.

You don't say what V2's stack was.

You might be beat by a flush or full house but you shouldn't beat yourself up. That said, you don't need to be in the business of playing A4 in MP.
Flopped the 2nd nuts, disaster on the river Quote
07-29-2015 , 03:05 PM
Flop PSB is good, but once you get two callers you can be pretty sure that one of them is on a draw. I PSB turn as well. $40 into $60 is too small, imo.

River is a crying call, even though you're almost always beat. I wouldn't say that "everything got there." A straight card of diamonds is probably worse than the trips/boat card, but pot was $180 (minus rake) before the river. With another $60 in there from your Vs, your $30 will only be 11% of the $263 pot. Puke/call.
Flopped the 2nd nuts, disaster on the river Quote
07-29-2015 , 03:31 PM
Don't know why you would ever open limp OOP. If you think this is playable OOP, then raise.

Impossible to analyze hand w/o stack sizes.

Quite possible you were drawing dead the whole way. Unlikely, but still possible. Also possible they both have overpairs.

Last edited by BadlyBeaten; 07-29-2015 at 03:37 PM.
Flopped the 2nd nuts, disaster on the river Quote
07-29-2015 , 03:46 PM
So long as table is fairly passive preflop, I also attempt to generate a multiway limped pot by open limping this hand and ~nutmining.

Flop donk size might depend on stack sizes, although with the 2nd nuts we can lean towards getting ourselves pot committed in most cases regardless. I'm cool with the PSB donk.

Again, stack dependent on the turn, but I probably bet closer to PSB, or perhaps enough to put shorter stack all-in (which is not an unreasonable bet).

I'm guessing given these stupid odds that river is a sigh call?

GalthoughstarsprobablyhavetoalignforustobegoodG
Flopped the 2nd nuts, disaster on the river Quote
07-29-2015 , 03:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadlyBeaten
Don't know why you would ever open limp.
To see an extremely cheap flop with morons (not blowing them out of the pot preflop), flop a ~nuttish hand, and get paid off postflop?

Git'snotabadplanatalotoftables,imoG
Flopped the 2nd nuts, disaster on the river Quote
07-29-2015 , 04:31 PM
yeah, it's a passive live 1-3 table. There's no reason not to limp with speculative hands to see cheap flops. If this were 1-2 online, completely different story. I would not limp here. I apologize for not including stack sizes, Hero is at about $600, V2 has me covered.
V1 is a little less than $100, shortstacking.

I agree that I don't know why V1 would be on a draw, maybe I give him too much credit for being a decent TAG, I've had a lot of history with him and he always was a solid player in the past, but lately is only shortstacking and only using two BI's max. I'm not sure why he wouldn't just get it all in earlier if he had an over pair.
Flopped the 2nd nuts, disaster on the river Quote
07-29-2015 , 04:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
So long as table is fairly passive preflop, I also attempt to generate a multiway limped pot by open limping this hand and ~nutmining.

Flop donk size might depend on stack sizes, although with the 2nd nuts we can lean towards getting ourselves pot committed in most cases regardless. I'm cool with the PSB donk.

Again, stack dependent on the turn, but I probably bet closer to PSB, or perhaps enough to put shorter stack all-in (which is not an unreasonable bet).

I'm guessing given these stupid odds that river is a sigh call?

GalthoughstarsprobablyhavetoalignforustobegoodG
I've read the sort of guide you made to low limit live Hold'em by the way, absolutely excellent. I try to stick to a lot of the principles you mentioned and it's perfect for beating the typical passive 1-3 games at the local casinos.
Flopped the 2nd nuts, disaster on the river Quote
07-29-2015 , 04:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WarPig6565
I've read the sort of guide you made to low limit live Hold'em by the way, absolutely excellent. I try to stick to a lot of the principles you mentioned and it's perfect for beating the typical passive 1-3 games at the local casinos.
Thanks, although I'll admit that 1/3rd of the way into hours 2000 thru 3000 aren't going quite as smoothly as the first 2000 hours, so make sure to keep an open mind...

GcluelessNLnoobG
Flopped the 2nd nuts, disaster on the river Quote
07-29-2015 , 04:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WarPig6565
yeah, it's a passive live 1-3 table. There's no reason not to limp with speculative hands to see cheap flops.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
To see an extremely cheap flop with morons (not blowing them out of the pot preflop), flop a ~nuttish hand, and get paid off postflop?
I think the people who see flops in back with suited kings, queens, and jacks will call a raise. The resultant increase in pot size increases the value of their errors on future streets. And if they truly are "passive," as I understand the word, they will generally play similar ranges in limped and raised pots.
Flopped the 2nd nuts, disaster on the river Quote
07-30-2015 , 01:33 AM
Stack sizes please. I'm never folding here getting like 8:1.
Flopped the 2nd nuts, disaster on the river Quote
07-30-2015 , 02:24 AM
Why people keep including Race as a meaningful characteristic to analyse a player?
Flopped the 2nd nuts, disaster on the river Quote
07-30-2015 , 10:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnyarmless
Why people keep including Race as a meaningful characteristic to analyse a player?
Well, there's a belief that "race" (cultural heritage is probably a better term) at least tends to be an indicator of psychological/personality characteristics.

Although it may be a misconception, I think there is a widespread belief that the life experiences of both Native Americans and people of African descent, in the USA at least, is closely connected, somehow, with their cultural heritage.

Last edited by BadlyBeaten; 07-30-2015 at 10:39 AM.
Flopped the 2nd nuts, disaster on the river Quote
07-30-2015 , 10:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
To see an extremely cheap flop with morons (not blowing them out of the pot preflop), flop a ~nuttish hand, and get paid off postflop?

Git'snotabadplanatalotoftables,imoG
What are the morons doing that's different from that? In a negative sum game, in a game with rake, why do you expect to breakeven, much less profit by copying the moron's strategy?
Flopped the 2nd nuts, disaster on the river Quote
07-30-2015 , 11:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadlyBeaten
Well, there's a belief that "race" (cultural heritage is probably a better term) at least tends to be an indicator of psychological/personality characteristics.
This.

Quote:
Originally Posted by smmcoy
What are the morons doing that's different from that? In a negative sum game, in a game with rake, why do you expect to breakeven, much less profit by copying the moron's strategy?
The morons can't betsize. They don't get enough profit when they hit, and they let you draw cheap and then can't let go of their made hand once you make one that's better.

Our edge is bigger postflop than pre-flop. I won't usually open-limp a nut-mining hand in MP, but I sometimes will in EP if I think it will get a bunch of overlimpers, and I'll participate in the overlimp parade with one in just about any position.
Flopped the 2nd nuts, disaster on the river Quote
07-30-2015 , 12:12 PM
You can NEVER fold getting these odds. Never ever ever ever. Call and be sad with your losing hand.
Flopped the 2nd nuts, disaster on the river Quote
07-30-2015 , 12:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadlyBeaten
Well, there's a belief that "race" (cultural heritage is probably a better term) at least tends to be an indicator of psychological/personality characteristics.

Although it may be a misconception, I think there is a widespread belief that the life experiences of both Native Americans and people of African descent, in the USA at least, is closely connected, somehow, with their cultural heritage.
Race has nothing to do with culture, it's 100% biological. I am sorry but this is textbook racism.
Flopped the 2nd nuts, disaster on the river Quote
07-30-2015 , 01:20 PM
Bull. Race is a strong, though nowhere near infallible, especially in America, clue as to the culture in which one was raised.

It is a clue, and nothing more, just like mannerisms or clothes. In absence of stronger reads, it is better than nothing. Stop looking for racism in descriptions.
Flopped the 2nd nuts, disaster on the river Quote
07-30-2015 , 01:33 PM
Ok, man. Let's move on. I'm sorry I brought it up.
Flopped the 2nd nuts, disaster on the river Quote
07-30-2015 , 02:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by smmcoy
What are the morons doing that's different from that? In a negative sum game, in a game with rake, why do you expect to breakeven, much less profit by copying the moron's strategy?
As G mentions above, we basically play Bingo a lot better than our opponents. The amount of money our opponents ship us when we flop Bingo is >>>> the amount of money we ship our opponents when they flop Bingo.

Just take a look at how your opponents play postflop in multiway pots and check out some of the hands they are showing up with by the river. Would you have put in any money postflop multiway over multiple streets versus the action they were facing with some of the hands these jokers are showing up with? There's your profit right there.

GcluelessBingonoobG
Flopped the 2nd nuts, disaster on the river Quote

      
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