Originally Posted by dgiharris

I agree,

but I don't think that changes the math. Basically, in the scenarios I modeled I thought I did a pretty good job giving V very little air. In one case I gave him air 25% of the time and in the other scenario I gave him air 10% of the time. I think that's pretty fair, do you disagree with these assumptions? I think 10% air is reasonable. I think 25% is a bit optimistic

If you agree, then you see that the predominant factor in EV is still V continuing with air since I thought our fold equity would be 10%, i.e. we could fold out Villain's pocket pair 10% of the time.

However, if you widen V's range of pockets from TT-QQ to 77-QQ and then increase our fold equity against V from 10% to 25% then I think you can make the case that we'd want to shove first since FE would now be a significant portion of our +EV profits in this case...

So I guess that is the question. In your opinion, if V's range is 77-QQ, how much fold equity do you think we have? Basically, how often is V folding to our shove on this board in your opinion? If he called a massive 3bet pre, I don't think it is with the intention of setmining as much as it is with the intention that villain thinks hero is FOS, or the lol "I put you on AK" type thinking Other than binking a set on the flop, this is as dreamy of a flop as it gets for mid PP type hands. Therefore, I don't think we have any (close to zero) FE against any PPs

BUt I have to say, that if V would call a 3bet with 77 I could see this same villain also calling w AJs and KQs. And therefore if he'd call with that then he'd have more air in his range. Maybe so, but something tells me this is more PP or AK (I guess also AQ) than AJ or KQ. Maybe it's the size of the bet, i.e. 30 vs. 20 he opened with twice before.

So it's a logical catch-22 kind of paradox.

If V's range is predominantly TT-QQ then we have very little fold equity and thus need V to continue with his air as much as possible. However, if we think we have more fold equity against V then it must be because V has a wider range of pockets that may fold such as 77, 88, or 99. HOwever, if V would call our massive 3bet with 77, 88, or 99 then it would follow that he would also call with AJs, KQs, and JTs type hands. And if he would call with those hands then that means he has more air in his range thus validating my original premises/arguments.

The above is a bit convoluted but I hope you can follow my rationale.

Originally Posted by endodocdc

I follow your rationale..it's laid out pretty clearly. I would check the EV calculations again, though, as I come up with 21% equity for AK against TT+, not 24%. Also, my personal feeling is we shouldn't figure FE into our calculations against villain's TT+ range, as I think it's close to zero.

Originally Posted by dgiharris

I didn't set V's pair range as TT+ but rather TT-QQ so that is where the discrepancy may be coming from.

I set the FE to 10% which I thought was close to zero. Maybe 5% is better?

Overall I agree with a lot of what you are saying and I think my worst case scenario falls more or less in line with your postings with the exception of our FE being 10% instead of 5%???

I think the reality is somewhere between my two scenarios but weighted more towards the worst case which comes out as exactly 0EV so its right on the line which does make this an interesting hand to think about and discuss.

Originally Posted by Liquid Cash

I honestly think people are over estimating villain's range here. I don't think he has a range of AK+ here. First of all this guy is described as "very loose" plus the fact that this looks like a squeeze when he raises a bunch of people flat and hero 3-bets. Then villain snap calls without thinking. If he has a big pair he would at least think about re raising I would think because hero has under 100 bb's.

I think c-betting 1/2 pot or so is good here because he can fold hands like KQ,KJ,KT,QJ,all of those braodway hands. You might say "well we are ahead of those hands anyway so what's the point" but the fact is if you check they will most likely bet and you can't really check/call down. So even though you are ahead of these hands in an absolute sense you can't really get to showdown easily vs them and win.

If he shoves flop just fold, if he calls your c-bet I think you can just give up. I still think even if you have to give up that this c-bet will show a profit by getting him to fold hands that would otherwise bet and make you fold if you checked.

Also you could just check/fold but make sure you take this line vs him with good hands in the future to balance if you plan on playing with him a lot.

Originally Posted by TheWiener

if you are playing the first time against V - 3 open raises in 2 rounds means nothing.

i think it would be really bad to just call AK in that spot - 5 handed you can never be sure to have the best hand even if you hit your A or K otf.
as well you will see everyone folding a lot of the time.

for me its always hard to slow down otf as preflop 3better - and against a thinking player i would fire out here to fold out pockets but against a V like that i would just c/f and hate myself for it

Originally Posted by kick2dante

fwiw he had JJ, i bet 220ish into 330 he snap calls, turn is 2 giving me nut flush draw (and chop outs) i bet his last 80 he wins

had i not picked up the nut flush draw would be interesting to see if i still woulda bet it, i probably would have.............. kinda had to at that point

Originally Posted by AintNoLimit

Raising to the proper ~210 amt. would have made this so much easier..

Originally Posted by Little_blue

I think you guys are all concentrating on the wrong area. shoving is slightly + ev, folding has 0 ev and check calling against an aggressive palyer may be minor + ev...but there if a much bettor line.

What I take away from this discussion is if I have AK and a pot size bet will give me less then a 1.5 spr then SHOVE PRE FLOP. and I don't think its even close.

In NLHT&P they talk about the play and suggest that if you have to balance it do the same with 50% of you KK and you become unexploitable. (thats from my memory and I might be out of context)..

Originally Posted by Little_blue

I think you guys are all concentrating on the wrong area. shoving is slightly + ev, folding has 0 ev and check calling against an aggressive palyer may be minor + ev...but there if a much bettor line.

What I take away from this discussion is if I have AK and a pot size bet will give me less then a 1.5 spr then SHOVE PRE FLOP. and I don't think its even close.

In NLHT&P they talk about the play and suggest that if you have to balance it do the same with 50% of you KK and you become unexploitable. (thats from my memory and I might be out of context)..

Originally Posted by kick2dante

i had 700 behind, there are others in the hand that have me covered, that could be a disastrous mistake

Originally Posted by Little_blue

In a multi way raised pot, I generally calculate my SPR against the most likely caller who is the original raiser. I don't usually think palyers will back raise AA or KK unless I have seen evidence otherwise. WE call them dead money for a reason.

From NLHT&P

Concept No. 22 p.259

Ace-King is a powerful "move-in"hand, and frequently moving in preflop is by far the best play with it.

"Ace-king has some peculiar properties that make it particularly well-suited to all-in moves preflop. AK is the favorite against any non-pair hand, only a slight dog against all pairs through queens, a moderate dog against kings, and a huge dog only against aces. Thus the only hand it truly "fears" is pocket aces, and the fact that you hold one ace cuts the chances an opponent has pocket aces roughly in half.

Also AK doesn't play well out of position after the flop with deep stacks,[/COLOR]"

If the most likely scenario is we are going heads up against the original raiser we don't mind it, correct...who is 150 deep..

So the problem becomes how do we do against the rest of the field

Assume the other 3 palyers have us covered, and will just call AA and KK 1/3 of the time (not 3 bet the oringinal raiser) and fold all other hands to are shove..

Thats about .3% of all hands...There orginal calling range is conservatively 12% of hands (AJ+ KQs Kjs PP and Axs)....that means any one will have AA or KK hand .25% of the time...a

so you will be called by one of these player about 7% of the time..



Against the calling range we have 18% equity (poker stove)...assume 700 effective stacks...so the final pot when one of these players calls us is 1490

So are equity on the shove against these players is ....
((1490 * .18) - 700)*.07 + 127 * .93=-77.724 + 90.21 = 13 ish

If the call wider 1/3 of AA and KK hands, QQ and AKs...say then they call about 9% of the time and one will call you about 25% of the time but your equity will be around 39% when called

(1490 *.39 -700) * .25 + 127 * .75 = -30 + 90 = 60

so I have a problem seeing that if effective stacks are 700 against the rest of the field how this would be a disastrous mistake.