Quote:
Originally Posted by outdonked
I wouldn't call a bdfd+bdsd+overcards a powerful draw hand. Each back-door is worth 1 outer and the overcards are 6 outers. So, we have 8 outs OTF and if we miss the turn card we got 7 outs with one card to come for 14% chance and a very very weak draw. By the time the turn action is completed we may find ourselves pot committed with a extremely weak draw and way way behind a made hand. That's a good hand to fantasize about and make nice little plans of sucking out opponents but that doesn't bring the money in. That's a losing play with a weak hand.
I didn't. Do you know how adjectives work? I said the BDFD was powerful. Actually, it's the best BDFD we could possibly have. AhX on HHx is better than AhXh on Hxx because when the third heart appears OTT we can rep the flush, and if we get called and hit another heart we're practically guaranteed to stack our opponent, and one of them is a bad rec player 325BB+ deep who plays a wide range, which almost certainly includes lots of flush draws.
My point was the hand was plenty good to C-bet into two Vs. The flop is pretty dry so they'll both fold decently often, at least one will fold a majority of the time, and then we're usually HU OTT, where we can bluff again if our hand improved. And we may only have 8 outs to make the best hand (assuming villain is not drawing himself), but we can bet on any threatening card: any heart, any J, any Q, any K, any A, any 2, and any 5, and we have significant equity-when-called for any of these. So 25 cards will significantly improve our hand OTT. That's over half of the remaining cards, making the flop an easy C-bet.
"Pot commitment" when we're bluffing is a strange concept. It's okay to bluff the flop and give up on blank turns when both villains call. And it's okay to bluff the flop and turn and give up on the river if it's a bad card or we think villain is never folding.
Say we bet 35 OTF (a standard C-bet). We typically get 1 or 0 callers. Suppose V2 calls. The turn pot is now 130. We bet 70. IME we often win right here (close to half the time). But V2 calls. River is a blank, pot is 270, and we have left 525 against V2. We are in no way committed. OTOH, suppose V1 called OTF. Now there's 155 left, so we can either bomb the turn or bet like 50. We bet 50. We still have decent FE here. V1 calls. River pot is 230 with 105 left. That's over half V1's stack left. We still have FE, and if V1 checks to us and/or gives signs he doesn't want to see another bet, I may shove here. But we can easily get away from the hand if we think he likes his TP and is not folding. We are not committed. But checking doesn't mean we automatically lose either. We have AK so we beat every busted draw in either villain's range.
I get you're a nit who never bluffs but you gotta stop acting like that's the only way to play poker.
Last edited by Shai Hulud; 08-23-2017 at 09:27 PM.