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Old 05-15-2017, 05:36 PM   #1
Shai Hulud
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Facing river shove vs. weird villain with TT on J6492

Table is a mix of regfish, loose passives, and LAGs, plus a couple young unknowns who just sat down but look like donks (they're clearly friends as they're talking to each other since they sat down). Table seems pretty weak so far but I've been there less than an hour.

Live at Winstar $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players

MP2: $200.00
CO: $200.00
Hero (BTN): $200.00
SB: $200.00
BB: $200.00
UTG: $200.00
UTG+1: $200.00
UTG+2: $200.00
MP1: $200.00

Pre Flop: ($2.00) Hero is BTN with T T
UTG calls $2, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls $2, 1 fold, MP2 calls $2, CO calls $2, Hero raises to $15, SB calls $14, 5 folds

Flop: ($39.00) J 6 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $25, SB calls $25

Turn: ($89.00) 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $60, SB calls $60

River: ($214.00) 2 (2 players)
SB bets $100 all in, Hero ?

Villain is one of the unknowns who just sat down. I think this is the second hand villain was dealt, so I have no read on him aside from appearance and some very bizarre behavior. As soon as it gets heads up, he turns 90 degrees to face me, leans in, and stares, without blinking once, into my eyes until clock is called. He does this the ENTIRE HAND. Frankly I did not know what to make of this behavior.

Most players at Winstar play very straightforwardly here, checking their drawing hands. Some also take this line with their monster hands. Without knowing what kind of player he is, putting him on a range is difficult, but most players at Winstar would have something like this on the flop: {99-44, ATs-A2s, KJs-K2s, Q6s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, AJo, A6o, A4o, KJo, QJo, 87o, 76o}.

There are quite a few J combos that are ahead, as well as 44 and 66 which crush us. However, I think there are far more hearts and straight draws in his range, plus some weak made hands like A6o and A4o that might call down trying to hit two pair.

The problem of course is when he shoves. He did his tanking and staring thing before he shoved. At this point I think we are behind, as he's probably not shoving his busted draws. But some players are capable of bluffing here. The previous day I had encountered two people who took this line, one with Ace high and one with bottom pair. So I'm really bewildered as to what he could have. Seems strange to check his TP hands, also 44 and 66, but I don't expect these guys to play rationally. And his staredown routine makes me think he could be weak and trying to intimidate me.

I don't know. So, several questions.

A) How common is this check-call check-call shove line, and is it usually strong or weak?

B) Does this kind of staredown intimidation thing indicate strength or weakness?

C) What do you make of his range on the river shove?

D) Is my play fine up to the river?

E) Figuring I'm likely beat, do I make a crying call for the rest of my stack, knowing I need to be good less than 25% of the time, or sheepishly fold?
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Old 05-15-2017, 05:57 PM   #2
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Re: Facing river shove vs. weird villain with TT on J6492

check/call, check/call, shove is generally a very strong line. V is laying a trap for you on flop and turn, but is afraid you'll check behind river.

I probably check behind on turn. Sure you let his draws get a free card, but you also get to pot control against Jx. Our hand isn't so strong that we need to protect it at the expense of getting stacked when he has Jx, especially because if a heart comes and he shows strength we can fold.

As played I probably fold river but it's close. I don't think a default 1/2 V is bluffing his missed draws for a less than 1/2 pot bet on river.
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Old 05-15-2017, 06:23 PM   #3
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Re: Facing river shove vs. weird villain with TT on J6492

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qVillain is one of the unknowns who just sat down. I think this is the second hand villain was dealt, so I have no read on him aside from appearance and some very bizarre behavior. As soon as it gets heads up, he turns 90 degrees to face me, leans in, and stares, without blinking once, into my eyes until clock is called. He does this the ENTIRE HAND. Frankly I did not know what to make of this behavior.
You got a bunch of answers in LCP when you posted this there.

You also posted more information in that thread than you did here.
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Old 05-15-2017, 07:31 PM   #4
Garick
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Re: Facing river shove vs. weird villain with TT on J6492

Grunch (means I didn't read the other responses, just the OP).

A) c/c, c/c, donk jam is a very polarized line. It's almost never TP, here. It's basically a missed draw or 2p+.

B) That behavior is generally considered to be a weakness tell, though I don't put a lot of credence in general tells until I can correlate what they seem to mean IRT a particular V.

C) I think his range OTR has few sets, as most LLSNL Vs tend to play sets fast on flushing boards. Lots of bricked draws, or draws that turned/rivered a pair, some retardedly played overpairs, some 35s, some J9, and some, but very little, bare TP. All of the non-value hands need to be discounted a lot by the shove for most players.

D) Line seems fine up to river. I check turn a lot more than I used to, as even though he has a ton of FD in his range, we're not getting him off a Jack, so I don't mind pot controlling. Still, I would also often bet, and that's about the sizing I would choose if I did.

E) Bleh. Even though AI river bluffs are rare at 1/2, this just doesn't add up. I prob go on stereotypes here. If he's a bro-y 20-something, I call. If he's a middle-class MAWG, I fold.
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Old 05-15-2017, 07:48 PM   #5
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Re: Facing river shove vs. weird villain with TT on J6492

probably call. it's actually a pretty damn good runout for us and a very good thing that we do not have the Th. QhTh, KhTh, QhTh, 57s, 5h4h, etc all bricked out. prob just the best run out for us and he should not show up with much Jx here. Can maybe fold if we have ThTx.
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Old 05-15-2017, 08:51 PM   #6
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Re: Facing river shove vs. weird villain with TT on J6492

Unknown V I default to respecting their bet until I have reason not to. With middle pair in position I check and save one round of betting to manage pot size. If he checks on turn I check behind, no reason to bet. It's a we are way ahead or way behind situation. If he has the J he calls, if he doesn't he folds. So betting gains us nothing. Try and check it down and go to showdown. If it gets checked down to river and he bets a reasonable amount that gives us good pot odds, call. If it checks down to river and he bets and doesn't give us good pot odds fold. The line you took never gave you positional advantage, you were blind the whole time.
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Old 05-15-2017, 09:11 PM   #7
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Re: Facing river shove vs. weird villain with TT on J6492

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If he has the J he calls, if he doesn't he folds. So betting gains us nothing.
Umm... You think there are no draws in V's range?
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Old 05-15-2017, 10:15 PM   #8
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Re: Facing river shove vs. weird villain with TT on J6492

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Umm... You think there are no draws in V's range?
Sure there is, but I want to balance conflicting objectives. sure I want to deny a free card, but I also want to make sure the pot doesn't get out of hand for the strength of hand I have. Which takes precedence? If I keep betting I get hurt by building a big pot. If I fail to charge potential draws two things must happen to get hurt; 1. he must actually have a drawing hand. 2. He has to hit his draw.
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Old 05-15-2017, 10:26 PM   #9
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Re: Facing river shove vs. weird villain with TT on J6492

Smells like a busted flush draw, I throw a white in for the call. Willing to pay off a trappily paid set here, given the size of the pot relative to the shove. I don't love the spot, don't get me wrong, but it will just be a busted flush draw a large % of the time IME.
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Old 05-15-2017, 11:11 PM   #10
Shai Hulud
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Re: Facing river shove vs. weird villain with TT on J6492

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Originally Posted by callipygian View Post
You got a bunch of answers in LCP when you posted this there.

You also posted more information in that thread than you did here.
In that thread I was interested in how to deal with the personal space invasion issue. I don't think I even mentioned the cards or how the hand went. Here I am asking about the hand, what kind of range he could have, etc. It's a different question entirely.
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Old 05-15-2017, 11:16 PM   #11
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Re: Facing river shove vs. weird villain with TT on J6492

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Originally Posted by delvuter View Post
Unknown V I default to respecting their bet until I have reason not to. With middle pair in position I check and save one round of betting to manage pot size. If he checks on turn I check behind, no reason to bet. It's a we are way ahead or way behind situation. If he has the J he calls, if he doesn't he folds. So betting gains us nothing. Try and check it down and go to showdown. If it gets checked down to river and he bets a reasonable amount that gives us good pot odds, call. If it checks down to river and he bets and doesn't give us good pot odds fold. The line you took never gave you positional advantage, you were blind the whole time.
I appreciate you taking the time to respond, but I don't think checking is good here, given villain's range is mostly draws until the river shove, where it becomes polarized.

Last edited by Shai Hulud; 05-15-2017 at 11:44 PM. Reason: to make myself sound less douchelike
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Old 05-15-2017, 11:22 PM   #12
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Re: Facing river shove vs. weird villain with TT on J6492

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I appreciate you taking the time to respond, but this doesn't seem like good advice. His range is mostly draws until the river shove, where it becomes polarized.
J's are in his range. IDK. Sorry for the bad advice.
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Old 05-15-2017, 11:51 PM   #13
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Re: Facing river shove vs. weird villain with TT on J6492

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Umm... You think there are no draws in V's range?
How come moderator "Garick" always raining on everyone's parade with his own opinion being strong vs others . Just curious as you knock my thread, and many others? I wish you gave both negative and positive critism not just negative remarks, it just hurts to see community leaders acting this way..... I would listen to your remarks as positive critism to improve but I don't see your credentials (poker wise ). I hope others chime also.. I'll probably get banned or this posting for speaking my opinion, but at least it was heard...

Anyway back to the hand OP, I bet you J10 is in his range , kicker isn't strong, maybe he thought you were on a draw and miss and decided to take the last street...

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Old 05-16-2017, 12:07 AM   #14
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Re: Facing river shove vs. weird villain with TT on J6492

53 got there. So did 42hh. So did J2cc. On the other side of the stupid line he has QQ that held and can now safely bet.

You bet so much on prior streets you likely can't fold to a player that ... if he has a better hand than TT, then he also has lots of worse hands that might jam.
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Old 05-16-2017, 02:35 AM   #15
Shai Hulud
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Re: Facing river shove vs. weird villain with TT on J6492

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A) c/c, c/c, donk jam is a very polarized line. It's almost never TP, here. It's basically a missed draw or 2p+.
That was my feeling while playing. Didn't think he had a J but the river shove looks really strong. It could still be a J if he's one of those idiots who feels TPGK is so strong he should slowplay it, but I got the sense of two pair or better plus random bluffs after river jam.

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B) That behavior is generally considered to be a weakness tell, though I don't put a lot of credence in general tells until I can correlate what they seem to mean IRT a particular V.
Also my feeling while playing, but I thought about it while he was doing his staredown thing and felt some villains might try to send off reverse tells, so I didn't put much weight towards this "read" when making my decision.

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Originally Posted by Garick View Post
C) I think his range OTR has few sets, as most LLSNL Vs tend to play sets fast on flushing boards. Lots of bricked draws, or draws that turned/rivered a pair, some retardedly played overpairs, some 35s, some J9, and some, but very little, bare TP. All of the non-value hands need to be discounted a lot by the shove for most players.
So you're saying the marginal hands like KJ that are probably best but not worth a shove should be largely discarded as possibilities, assuming I parsed that last sentence right.

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D) Line seems fine up to river. I check turn a lot more than I used to, as even though he has a ton of FD in his range, we're not getting him off a Jack, so I don't mind pot controlling. Still, I would also often bet, and that's about the sizing I would choose if I did.
I bet because his checks, timeouts, and soul-reading came across as rather weak, and I think he is calling with lots of draws that don't have the odds. On the other hand, checking the turn for pot control has merit as I don't want to value-town myself when he's slow-playing a monster. But I hate giving out a free card on a board with tons of draws.

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E) Bleh. Even though AI river bluffs are rare at 1/2, this just doesn't add up. I prob go on stereotypes here. If he's a bro-y 20-something, I call. If he's a middle-class MAWG, I fold.
Exactly my thinking. He looked about 20-22 and definitely looked/acted more bro-y than intelligent. Constantly talking to his buddy about stupid **** I can't remember. I got the feeling later they might have been colluding due to a weird hand when they were heads-up, but, no proof, and they left after that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanaplan
53 got there. So did 42hh. So did J2cc. On the other side of the stupid line he has QQ that held and can now safely bet.
I feel like most randoms will play garbage like 53, 42s, and J2s, but not to a raise. OTOH I've seen quite a few people call raises with hands like Q7o so who knows. I pretty much discounted QQ. These guys sometimes like to slowplay KK+ and maybe AK preflop, but I figure with QQ he's 3-betting preflop, and if not at least betting on that board. Checking with QQ here is pretty horrible unless he knows I'm going to C-bet, which he can't know as he just sat down. But sure it's possible.

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Old 05-16-2017, 08:09 AM   #16
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Re: Facing river shove vs. weird villain with TT on J6492

[QUOTE=delvuter;52219717 If he checks on turn I check behind, no reason to bet. It's a we are way ahead or way behind situation. If he has the J he calls, if he doesn't he folds. So betting gains us nothing. [/QUOTE]

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Umm... You think there are no draws in V's range?
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Originally Posted by delvuter View Post
Sure there is, but I want to balance conflicting objectives. sure I want to deny a free card, but I also want to make sure the pot doesn't get out of hand for the strength of hand I have.
These are too very different comments. In your first one you said "betting gains us nothing" and he only calls if he has a Jack. I agree that there are conflicting objectives, but your first comment made no mention of the other issues and talks about this hand as WA/WB, which I don't think is correct. If you look at my response, I also said that checking the turn has merit, so I'm not saying that it's bad. I'm just saying that we need to make our plan around his whole range (which includes draws) and the ways that he could play different parts of it.

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Originally Posted by deerdeerdeer View Post
How come moderator "Garick" always raining on everyone's parade with his own opinion being strong vs others . Just curious as you knock my thread, and many others? I wish you gave both negative and positive critism not just negative remarks, it just hurts to see community leaders acting this way..... I would listen to your remarks as positive critism to improve but I don't see your credentials (poker wise ). I hope others chime also.. I'll probably get banned or this posting for speaking my opinion, but at least it was heard...
Not going to ban you, or even infract you, but I think you're being rather silly here. I definitely do offer positive comments. In fact, if you check OP's other thread ITF you'll see an "I like your approach" comment to his EV calcs. I'm not here to make you feel better, I'm here to make the forum run well and this forum's #1 goal is to provide good poker strategy, and thereby hopefully make users better players.

Unclear thinking and lack of/non-cogent analysis needs to be corrected if folks are going to get better. I'm sorry if it hurts your feelings to be told that you're missing something, but you need to hear it if it is true. Frankly I don't think I'm harsh about it at all.

As for my "poker credentials" I'm not here to get in a pissing contest about them. In the marketplace of ideas, people can choose who's comments they want to give more credence to. I think my posts speak for themselves and wouldn't be any better or worse if I posted my graph, which wouldn't prove anythig anyway, as there is no way to prove live stats.
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Old 05-16-2017, 11:22 AM   #17
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Re: Facing river shove vs. weird villain with TT on J6492

Garick, you are totally right when you say, "These are too very different comments. In your first one you said "betting gains us nothing" and he only calls if he has a Jack. I agree that there are conflicting objectives, but your first comment made no mention of the other issues and talks about this hand as WA/WB, which I don't think is correct. If you look at my response, I also said that checking the turn has merit, so I'm not saying that it's bad. I'm just saying that we need to make our plan around his whole range (which includes draws) and the ways that he could play different parts of it."

I didn't notice I had to different points! Thanks!
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Old 05-16-2017, 11:44 AM   #18
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Re: Facing river shove vs. weird villain with TT on J6492

Is it only a way behind/way ahead situation if we had like K's and an A is in the flop? What else calls a bet? Does any PP below J's call a bet? Maybe they will float a CB. So yeah, CB is good, but shut it down after the turn if they call our CB.
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Old 05-16-2017, 12:41 PM   #19
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Re: Facing river shove vs. weird villain with TT on J6492

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How come moderator "Garick" always raining on everyone's parade with his own opinion being strong vs others . Just curious as you knock my thread, and many others? I wish you gave both negative and positive critism not just negative remarks, it just hurts to see community leaders acting this way..... I would listen to your remarks as positive critism to improve but I don't see your credentials (poker wise ). I hope others chime also..
I primarily view 2+2 through the app and can't tell who's a moderator and if they are, whether they are a moderator of the forum they're posting in (mods don't get privileges outside of their forums).

It's not a mod's job to make you feel good, and mods aren't necessarily good players at all - just volunteers who help keep the forums clean and tidy.

Your ranges lacked draws and it was up to whoever noticed to point it out.

People who have studied the game have strong opinions, and there's nothing you can do about it. This isn't some kind of democracy where everyone votes and whatever's most popular becomes law. It's more like a theocracy where The Vengeful Math God has made secret/hidden laws which we the people have to discern. Some people have figured out some of the laws, and some even share what they've learned on a publicly accessible, free to access forum. Everyone can collectively decide to do something else, but if 90% of the people vote to do something the Vengeful Math God doesn't like, there will still be fire and brimstone raining down from the sky on those that oppose him because ultimately it's VMG's secret laws that matter.
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Old 05-17-2017, 04:45 PM   #20
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Re: Facing river shove vs. weird villain with TT on J6492

Just for the death stare aspect, interested in results. As for hand, probably checking turn. As played, I would probably call river and regret it.

**As for death stare, you said this happened pre-flop or after the flop?
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Old 05-17-2017, 09:14 PM   #21
Shai Hulud
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Re: Facing river shove vs. weird villain with TT on J6492

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Just for the death stare aspect, interested in results. As for hand, probably checking turn. As played, I would probably call river and regret it.

**As for death stare, you said this happened pre-flop or after the flop?
He stared as soon as I raised, but he didn't start the intense turn 90-degrees and lean in death stare until the flop, and this continued all the way to his shove (with him briefly looking away to grab chips or glance at the board).

Checking turn is fine, though I think this is one of those hands where it doesn't make a huge difference either way.

Results:
Spoiler:

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Old 05-18-2017, 02:41 AM   #22
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Re: Facing river shove vs. weird villain with TT on J6492

This is a classic example of why live tells can be so valuable in polarized spots. Villain either has a missed draw or he has us beat. Period. Generally, on the river here I'd be looking for live tells and if he didn't give anything away then I'd expect him to have us beat...because most of the time villains aren't bluffing in this spot but when they are they generally give something away.

That being said, alarm bells would already be going off in my head given that he is staring us down. For some reason he has gotten super serious about this pot after the flop. You think he's going to stare you down with a flush draw? No way. If he has a flush draw, you bet and he'll call. That's it. It's not going to be that serious of a spot for him. As you play more, I think you will find that it's fairly easy to determine whether villains likely have a draw or the goods.

As for the hand, I think it's super optimistic to go for 3 streets of value here. I prefer you check flop and bet turn. As played check turn. As played fold river without reads.
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Old 05-18-2017, 09:47 AM   #23
Shai Hulud
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Re: Facing river shove vs. weird villain with TT on J6492

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This is a classic example of why live tells can be so valuable in polarized spots. Villain either has a missed draw or he has us beat. Period. Generally, on the river here I'd be looking for live tells and if he didn't give anything away then I'd expect him to have us beat...because most of the time villains aren't bluffing in this spot but when they are they generally give something away.
Agree on villain having polarized range on river shove. But to me this hand indicates the opposite regarding tells, that they are often unreliable. His behavior gave me the sense he was weak and "feeling me out" on each street, and the river shove smelled very suspicious. Was I detecting weakness? Maybe. Perhaps this player thought I had JJ or 66. Some players may think their hand is weak when it is not. And if I did detect weakness, was it genuine? Perhaps this is an experienced player putting on a show, trying to trick me into calling a dicey river shove. Since this is villain's first played hand at the table, I have zero real information, so how do I know what his behavior means?

If most villains who bluff here give off tells, what are they? What exactly am I looking for? I've read Caro's Book of Poker Tells and one other one but didn't find them very helpful. So many of the listed tells could be random or mean something different than we think it means. Even tells considered pretty reliable like heartrate, I'm not so sure about. Does villain have a pulsing forehead vein? If so, maybe he just has a high resting pulse. Maybe he has social anxiety. Or maybe it does indicate excitement. Or maybe it indicates nervousness. If villain is excited, is it because he likes to pull off big bluffs or because he thinks he's going to win a big pot? If he's nervous, is it because he's afraid of being barreled off the hand, because he's so nitty he thinks he might actually be beat and is going to lose his stack, or because he's afraid I'll fold and he'll look foolish for failing to stack me?

This knowledge probably comes with experience, but I think in the meantime I'm better off ignoring tells and concentrating on hand reading and betting patterns.

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That being said, alarm bells would already be going off in my head given that he is staring us down. For some reason he has gotten super serious about this pot after the flop. You think he's going to stare you down with a flush draw? No way. If he has a flush draw, you bet and he'll call. That's it. It's not going to be that serious of a spot for him. As you play more, I think you will find that it's fairly easy to determine whether villains likely have a draw or the goods.
Actually yes, this player will stare me down like this regardless of hand strength. He did it 4/4 pots we were involved in. This one happened to be the first.

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As for the hand, I think it's super optimistic to go for 3 streets of value here. I prefer you check flop and bet turn. As played check turn. As played fold river without reads.
I wasn't going for 3 streets of value but thought his range was mostly draws so I should bet the turn to deny the free card. I also got the sense (perhaps completely inaccurate) he would bluff the river if I checked the turn. The plan was to check behind on the river. If I'd played even a few hands with this villain I would have checked the turn, knowing he likes to trap, but against an unknown I'm still not sure whether I should bet the turn.

So you say fold even though our pot odds are better than 3:1? With so many more draws in his range than monsters, if villain is even a little bluffy it seems like a call.

------------------

So if one set of players tells me it's a call, and another set tells me it's a fold, this would seem to mean one of the following is true:

a) one set is correct and the other incorrect

b) this is a very marginal spot

If the answer is b) I can move on, but if a) I wish I knew who I should be listening to...

Last edited by Shai Hulud; 05-18-2017 at 09:58 AM.
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Old 05-18-2017, 10:31 AM   #24
Dream Crusher
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Re: Facing river shove vs. weird villain with TT on J6492

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Originally Posted by Shai Hulud View Post
Agree on villain having polarized range on river shove. But to me this hand indicates the opposite regarding tells, that they are often unreliable. His behavior gave me the sense he was weak and "feeling me out" on each street, and the river shove smelled very suspicious. Was I detecting weakness? Maybe. Perhaps this player thought I had JJ or 66. Some players may think their hand is weak when it is not. And if I did detect weakness, was it genuine? Perhaps this is an experienced player putting on a show, trying to trick me into calling a dicey river shove. Since this is villain's first played hand at the table, I have zero real information, so how do I know what his behavior means?
I don't think this is an example of tells being unreliable. I think this just shows that you are relatively inexperienced in live games and don't know quite how to interpret live cues yet. Most of these cues are quite subtle but I think what you will find over time is that most players that are bluffing have a hard time keeping it together.

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Originally Posted by Shai Hulud View Post
Actually yes, this player will stare me down like this regardless of hand strength. He did it 4/4 pots we were involved in. This one happened to be the first.
Well turns out that this might not meant as much but if someone gets super serious like that I'm definitely going to be suspicious. If someone was staring at me I'd probably talk to that player to elicit a response.

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Originally Posted by Shai Hulud View Post
So you say fold even though our pot odds are better than 3:1? With so many more draws in his range than monsters, if villain is even a little bluffy it seems like a call.
This is LoL live poker where a lot of times you can fold getting really good odds. Sure, we don't know much about villain but if he looks like the bluffy type then I'm probably paying him off here but I don't expect to be good very often at all. This just isn't a likely bluff spot because he doesn't have enough chips to reasonably expect us to fold here. I also don't think that most players are going to play a draw passively the entire hand and then suddenly shove chips in when their equity falls to zero (when he could have shoved them in on the flop).

I really don't think this spot is super important given the pot odds. However, I do think he's mostly playing very strong hands like this and top pair type hands that he isn't sure how to play on the river. I don't think he's making a blocker bet with anything weaker and is unlikely to play a missed draw like this.
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Old 05-18-2017, 10:44 AM   #25
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Re: Facing river shove vs. weird villain with TT on J6492

I've come to the conclusion that one of my biggest leaks is bluff-catching rivers too often. The line check/call, check/call, open shove is polarized, but I've come to believe that polarized lines on the river are just strong, and it's rare that people are making big bluffs when they know they can't catch up. To bluff catch here, I'd like to have seen V been active/bluff before and/or have some reason to think they can bluff more than the general population. This may not be PC, but if V were a young Asian guy I'd probably call, and fold against other unknowns.
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