Game

1/2 NL in Atlantic City during the early evening


Read

Villain is a 32 year old or so guy. He sat down 1hr or so before and was raising some pots and playing kind of aggressive. He didn't say very much and hasn't gotten to showdown much though I saw him get to showdown with 8 10 suited or something in a pot he raised in late position. I was struggling to have any read if he was good at poker or not. He may also have been drunk but he didn't say much and was across the table. At this point he was down to $100 after buying in for $200 and fluctuating a bit. Again he didn't get to many showdowns so it was hard to tell wth was going on. I had been playing kind of tight and raising 20% or something preflop to get a feel for the game as I'd sat down 2h or so before. I myself had showed down top pair a few times but I had also folded a few pots where I showed aggression.

The game seemed pretty standard though I'd never played at this particular room and it was during the day so it seemed like there may have been more than usual regs. It was pretty loose preflop and easy to get to a flop by limping.


Action

Villain limp calls $20 from under the gun after I raise in late position with Qs Qc. Somebody else limp calls behind him. He has around $85 left, I cover.

Flop is Ks 4d 7s. Villain shoves. Other guy folds. What do?


My Analysis

I think his range can have many connectors and some sets. Plenty of flush draws though I doubt straight draws because he is in early position (?). I doubt he is playing this way preflop with AA-1010,AK-A10. He can have things like KJ, K10, suited kings. Maybe 45s though that is a reach. He was raising pots to $15 or $17 from early position with decent aggression though nothing insane. Just short of being out of line. I'm sitting thumbing 35% of my stack thinking there is no way I call and he doesn't flip over a king or a set.


PS back on the board from a long layoff good to be back

Probably just flip a coin

Fold is probably fine. If you're ahead it isn't by much, hands like nut flush draw are probably mixed in with random Kx or sets. You can just call with AA, Kx, and sets and be just fine here imo.

He's not good at poker if he's gotten to 100 from 200 and hasn't rebought.

Bit of a coinflip spot, I feel like call is probably a little -EV. It's hard to say because some players just always have draws and 7s here and never kings or better and it's hard to average over the population of players. I might call for image reasons and to see what he has.

Great analysis on all points.

There are kind of three different player archetypes here:

1) Shoves anything they consider a strong hand because haz strong hand. "Strong hands" here would include top pairs, sets and flush draws.

2) Checks top pairs and sets to trap, jams with hands where they don't want to go to showdown (because they have a draw or like a 7 or something).

3) The same as 2), but piles top pair hands into their shoving range as well.

This is going to be an easy fold vs 1), a call vs 2) and a thin fold vs 3). Averaged across the whole population, I think you're looking at a fold. But the evidence suggests this guy understands the value of aggression to just take down pots (raising T8s preflop, for instance) so I think he's going to be archetype 2) or 3). And against just that subset of the population, it might be a call I think.

Well I don't feel so bad for my consternation since it sounds like the consensus is this is a marginal spot. Result was I decided a call was -EV and I folded. Villain mucked, he was not showing a lot of hands. I told him before folding that I was showing him a lot of respect and I didn't have any idea if I was supposed to. He didn't say anything.

In hindsight when I think about it more, if he wanted me to put all my money in (with top pair or better) he would probably check raise. He would be able to basically min-raise my continuation bet all in and I'd be nearly committed with any pair or draw. As played he played the hand in about the only way he could get me to fold which tilts towards a call against a competent player.

I also like the idea of calling for image because I was starting to look like I could get run over. And to see what the f'er has.

this guy is not competent, forget that idea quickly.

For sure not folding.

Heads up I'm more likely to call.
If its the coin flip people are suggesting (which i agree), the fact he jammed into 2 players not 1 might sway me to fold.

The price isn't too bad given the betting is done, plus you're actually in pretty decent shape if he doesn't have a king. Call it off.