Quote:
Originally Posted by jake
We've got 35% express equity - and we only need 23% - so call. (Not positive you can call on a non-heart, non-pair turn though).
As you imply, actual equity is much less than 35%, since we may not see the river card.
Fortunately, all of our flush outs are clean. If we assume he has a set, we have 11 outs from 45 cards (since an A wins too), or about 3:1. We're only getting 2.3:1 though. We're not likely getting more if we hit our flush, since that'll put 4 hearts out there. But if we hit our ace, we'll stack him.
So...
9/45 we win the pot
2/45 we stack him
34/45 we lose.
20% to win 229 = 46
4.4% to win 618 = 27
75.6% to lose 100 = -76
Total is about -3 (it's actually -2.28 if you carry the precision).
So if we know he has a set, and he won't stack off if we hit our flush, but will if we hit our A, it's slightly negative to call.
Shoving means we win 618 35% of the time (216) and lose 389 65% of the time (-253). That's definitely no good under our assumptions.
Adding any flushes to his range makes things worse, since now we have only 7 outs (2 hearts gone and our A is no good).
I don't think described V is getting frisky here with junk, but there's always a fudge factor. And V may well make some helpful mistake on the turn.
Since it's so close and there's always fudge, I'd call. If we do bink our flush, we need to bet enough on the turn so that he's priced out from drawing to his boat. Letting him draw profitably would make calling here a big mistake.