This hand occurred a few nights ago at a live 1/2 cash game with five players, many of whom I've had a long history with and know their general styles of play.
Prehand Descriptions
VILLAIN1 (150 BB): This guy is generally fairly fishy; he almost always overvalues his hands and will donk bet or cbet most pairs he makes on the flop/turn, even if they are weak (low kicker). If he is last to act and there was a raise, he usually calls too often with marginal holdings. (For example, he has donked AJ into an A94 all clubs board in the past.) He rarely 3!, and if he does, the sizing is usually way too small or way too big, but he almost never 3! bluffs.
HERO (275 BB): seen as TAG with strong fundamental game (at this point of the night I've almost tripled my buy-in of $200).
The Hand
PREFLOP: I'm UTG and I raise to 6 with Q
J
. Everyone folds but V1 in the BB, and we see the flop. Pot: 13
Flop: 7
Q
J
I raise to 12 for pure value, knowing he generally calls in this spot when he spikes a pair or maybe is trying to catch a flush, even though he isn't priced in. Probably could've raised a bit bigger, but didn't want to scare him off. V1 calls. Pot: 37
Turn: 2
total blank, and I fire again for 37. V1 calls. At this point I feel like he must either have Qx or the nut flush draw because I can't imagine him calling with weaker hands, even despite his tendencies. Pot: 111
River: A
The flush didn't get there, but if he had the A
in his hand he likely spiked what he would think to be the best hand. I check, V1 bets 75, I call. V1 shows AQo and takes the hand.
My question is, is the check on the river a positive EV play in the long run? Should I check call the river in most instances or bet fold? The main reason I wanted to check rather than bet is because I couldn't justify folding after a potential 3! because I felt AQ was rather unlikely due to the lack of action pre. If I bet into him OTR, I could potentially be scaring away a bluff that more times than not comes out from him.