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Deep 2/3 - do we raise for value at any point? Deep 2/3 - do we raise for value at any point?

04-09-2017 , 09:24 AM
First, the hand:

~$2/3, $6 straddle

UTG +1 limps (~$1k stack), UTG +2 calls limps behind (~$1500 stack),
Hero raises to ~$30 w/ AJ (covers both villains), it's folded back to the limpers and they both call

Flop ($101): J63 UTG +1 checks, UTG +2 bets $40, Hero calls, UTG +1 calls

Turn ($221): A UTG +1 checks, UTG +2 bets $80, Hero calls, UTG +1 calls

River (~$461): K UTG +1 checks, UTG +2 bets $200, Hero calls, UTG +1 folds

--

I guess, at first glance, this would appear to be a pretty non-standard hand in a lot of ways (the entire hand is obviously weird since one of the villains decided to lead the flop). Anyway, so the question is - do we wanna raise for value at any point?

While I was in the hand I just couldn't think of any hands that would continue vs my exact hand since I block everything; any sort of continuing range that these two villains are gonna have vs a turn raise will contain hands that have me beat a big % of the time. If you advocate a raise, which hands would we be targetting that we expect them to continue with? Single Jx hands fold to a raise, single-pair hands fold to a raise except some weirdly played Ax (which we block, plus neither of them can have any strong Ax combo), any sort of straight draw folds, worse two-pair hands don't/shouldn't make up a big portion of their ranges. In spots where a villain's value range is this narrow it is generally gonna be better to just flat and keep ranges wide/allow them to keep bluffing, so I'm assuming the same should be true here.

Raising river doesn't really seem like a super attractive option either because of ^, but yeah, to elaborate a little bit: 1. we're still 3-way here, and there's also a pretty big chance that they'd end up shoving hands that I'd want them to just call my raise with (their wide ranges may contain some worse two-pair hands, and in their eyes those hands would be the super nuts and they'd prob happily shove over a small raise for a billion bbs).

But yeah, a bit tl;dr, I guess you could just say 'lol you're playing vs huge whales, stop over-analyzing and just raise/try to get as much money in as possible OTT'. I'm very theory-oriented in these spots and I keep thinking quite a lot about which hands are reasonable to have in my get-in-438974283478374 bbs range - even vs whales.
Deep 2/3 - do we raise for value at any point? Quote
04-09-2017 , 10:14 AM
I'm OK with just calling, I'm not overly enamoured with villans fiddly little bets and feel like I want to make it bigger, but as you point out a raise at any point just isn't getting called by worse hands....the board is super dry. And there really arnt many other two pairs in villans range...one pairsare going to fold to the raise, so I don't see alot of value I raising
Deep 2/3 - do we raise for value at any point? Quote
04-09-2017 , 10:17 AM
Reads would certainly help. But I'll give you my thoughts on how I would play this readless.

It's a very dry flop and most players won't donk this flop with sets, since they'd rather let you cbet. So I would discount (but not eliminate) sets from the donker's range. On the flop he can have a lot of hands that he might think are good but that are vulnerable to overcards on the turn (e.g., 77-TT, A6s, A3s, and weaker jacks); he can have an OESD (45s); and he can have more speculative hands like a gutshot and a backdoor draw (e.g., 5d7d) or overcards and a backdoor draw (e.g., KdQd). Unless he's a real fish, it's hard for him to have two pair here. So I think you're probably ahead, but there's no real reason to raise here (it's way-ahead, way-behind). I like your flop call.

On the turn several things have changed: 1) You now know that UTG+1 also has interest in this flop; 2) your own hand is now much stronger; and 3) UTG+2 has again made a very small bet. I would raise here. You're targeting villains' two-pair hands (A6s and A3s), their draws (45s, 8d6d, 7d6d, 6d5d and anyone who liked the flop with KdQd, 5d7d), and the occasional ace that donked or floated with overs and a backdoor draw (e.g., AsQs, AhQh). Because the bet is so small here, I think you can even further discount sets. In short, you very likely have the best hand, there are hands that can call a raise, there are now more draws on the board, and you're deep enough that you need to start building a pot.

I like a raise to $300 on the turn. And I'd be prepared to fold to a shove. Sure, sometimes you'll fold the best hand when a villain overplays a worse two pair, but that's fairly rare. Most villains are very hesitant to put in $1000 without the nuts. For this same reason, I don't expect any 3bet bluffs when you raise here.

As played, I like a smallish raise/fold on the river for the same reasons. Your hand is just too good not to get more money in. You have the second-nut two pair and the hand has played out in such a way that it's hard for villains to have sets or QT for a straight.
Deep 2/3 - do we raise for value at any point? Quote
04-09-2017 , 12:09 PM
Grunch: It depends on Vs, but I would usually r/f turn. It won't cost any more than calling a river bet, and a set will probably let us know about it, as they will be looking to re-raise to play for stacks. Meanwhile, we get value from 45, some Jacks that fear the bet was small enough to induce bluffs, and 36s might be in in a limp/call range as well, though rarely.
Deep 2/3 - do we raise for value at any point? Quote
04-09-2017 , 04:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Acquittal
Reads would certainly help. But I'll give you my thoughts on how I would play this readless.

It's a very dry flop and most players won't donk this flop with sets, since they'd rather let you cbet. So I would discount (but not eliminate) sets from the donker's range. On the flop he can have a lot of hands that he might think are good but that are vulnerable to overcards on the turn (e.g., 77-TT, A6s, A3s, and weaker jacks); he can have an OESD (45s); and he can have more speculative hands like a gutshot and a backdoor draw (e.g., 5d7d) or overcards and a backdoor draw (e.g., KdQd). Unless he's a real fish, it's hard for him to have two pair here. So I think you're probably ahead, but there's no real reason to raise here (it's way-ahead, way-behind). I like your flop call.

On the turn several things have changed: 1) You now know that UTG+1 also has interest in this flop; 2) your own hand is now much stronger; and 3) UTG+2 has again made a very small bet. I would raise here. You're targeting villains' two-pair hands (A6s and A3s), their draws (45s, 8d6d, 7d6d, 6d5d and anyone who liked the flop with KdQd, 5d7d), and the occasional ace that donked or floated with overs and a backdoor draw (e.g., AsQs, AhQh). Because the bet is so small here, I think you can even further discount sets. In short, you very likely have the best hand, there are hands that can call a raise, there are now more draws on the board, and you're deep enough that you need to start building a pot.

I like a raise to $300 on the turn. And I'd be prepared to fold to a shove. Sure, sometimes you'll fold the best hand when a villain overplays a worse two pair, but that's fairly rare. Most villains are very hesitant to put in $1000 without the nuts. For this same reason, I don't expect any 3bet bluffs when you raise here.

As played, I like a smallish raise/fold on the river for the same reasons. Your hand is just too good not to get more money in. You have the second-nut two pair and the hand has played out in such a way that it's hard for villains to have sets or QT for a straight.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
Grunch: It depends on Vs, but I would usually r/f turn. It won't cost any more than calling a river bet, and a set will probably let us know about it, as they will be looking to re-raise to play for stacks. Meanwhile, we get value from 45, some Jacks that fear the bet was small enough to induce bluffs, and 36s might be in in a limp/call range as well, though rarely.
I think it's pretty assumptive to start discounting sets in this spot; villain has just as many combos of sets (6) as A3/A6 combos (6 in total). And low pairs are typically weaker players' favorite hands to limp/call with imo (and even bad regs tend to do this).

Yes, this bet sizing would normally be indicative of a weakish hand/non-set hand, but that's assuming we're up against a player who at least has some sort of understanding of the game. I've seen fish take this line a billion times with strong hands, and sometimes they simply don't know how to size their bets.

That being said, I agree that raising turn is the best play here and I made a pretty clear mistake. In-game I didn't really think it through and simply failed to construct their ranges quickly enough. They can obviously have a bunch of middle-pair hands with a bdfd on the flop that picked up equity OTT, and this is something I missed completely for some reason - and I think this is the most critical detail that makes it a turn raise and not a flat.
Deep 2/3 - do we raise for value at any point? Quote
04-09-2017 , 07:32 PM
pre flop is really good cause seems like you got max value.

I would raise turn for sure. River I might raise honestly but the caveat being if he shoves 2pr then i would just call.

But raise turn, IDK why but this feels more like KJ then a set or a bluff.

you can even raise flop. just feel you took a very passive line with a strong hand so we almsot have to call down. the bad thing is what are we repping to Villain?
Deep 2/3 - do we raise for value at any point? Quote
04-10-2017 , 04:57 AM
Call. Results OP?
Deep 2/3 - do we raise for value at any point? Quote
04-10-2017 , 12:08 PM
I suck at deepstack.

Preflop for me depends on position and looseness of table. The earlier position we're in / the looser the table, the more I just overlimp. The later position / the tighter the table, the more I raise.

I also just flat the donk. Raising will often fold out worse, and we definitely don't want to be building a big pot with just one pair. The board is also pretty drawless so it's not as if there are draws that will call. When I find myself up against two players after the flop on this board, I'm feeling pretty sick unless one of them sees a turn with any pair.

I'm also just calling the turn. Again, a raise is often folding worse. Do we really think A6/A3 donked the flop, or J6/J3/63 called a preflop raise, or a naked Ace made it past the flop? I don't. And we're *still* up against two opponents. This sorta feels like cooler territory, honestly. Still, too good a hand to fold plus we might have 4 outs to super cooler someone, and we're getting a reasonable price, so I call.

Getting this price I also call the river. I think it's closer to a sigh call than anything else. Unless these guys are uber loose preflop and have a wide two pair range, the only value hand we can really expect to get paid off on is KJ. Also, calling the river also perhaps entices an overcall, so we risk the least to perhaps win another bet that way (instead of re-opening the betting).

Gnicehand,imo,butnoteIsuckatdeepstackG
Deep 2/3 - do we raise for value at any point? Quote
04-10-2017 , 12:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
It depends on Vs, but I would usually r/f turn.
If we didn't have outs to a monster, I'd be more cool with that. Folding with 4 outs to a monster potential fullhouse-over-fullhouse cooler deep, meh, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG
Deep 2/3 - do we raise for value at any point? Quote
04-10-2017 , 12:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlwaysMars
and sometimes they simply don't know how to size their bets.
I rarely play deep, but in my normal $300 max BI game, an $80 turn bet is a big bet, regardless of the size of the pot.

GcluelessNLnoobG
Deep 2/3 - do we raise for value at any point? Quote

      
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