Thanks Vernon for taking the time to write this up. The whole concept of planning hands is something I continue to need work on. Like GG and soemone else said the concept of planning to get stacks in is something I struggle with. I too fall into the pattern of pot fractions that developped over years and years.

Ahhhh Plan B for premium pair that we have waited 3 hours to get...

Probably the best part of Harrington on Cash for me was his emphasis on Big Hand big pot and small hand small pot. And the best part of PNLHE for me was the comittment threshold also emphasized by Harrington.

This is something I have changed in my game. I most typically raise my standard raise with AA KK so it is not completely uncommon from time to time for me to see an eleventeen way flop with these hands. Once that happens I used to go into "Oh **** mode" and try to barrel through the field on every flop.

Depending on flop texture stack sizes and player tendencies, I may still bomb the flop into the crowd. But more and more... particularly on "damp" boards I have conceded that there is a good chance my hand may be best now but has less chance of improvement than several of these other players who are not going to fold unless I make a bet that is very likely going to commit my stack. It certainly depends on the table but it is possible at 1/2 to win reasonable sized pots when the best hand is TPGK. This plan requires being able to dump those beautiful big pairs when the action gets hot and heavy. A skill I haven't quite mastered but I am working on.

Heads up is a different story and with reasonable stack sizes I am almost never straying from plan A (perhaps to a fault).

I want to chime in to say that position matters so much when planning a hand. No matter what type of hand you want to play -- a premium starting hand, a small pocket pair, suited connectors -- all of them become easier to plan when you know you'll have position throughout.

I know that sounds obvious, but the more dramatically I adjust my play to account for position, the more I seem to win.

A good plan should cover most eventualities. In game theory, a plan is called a Strategy if you have an response for each possible opponent action. You can draw it as a tree of all the possibilities; if he does X then I'll do Y.

In real life, you can't plan for everything, and you can't spend 5 mins thinking preflop. If you had already decided to flat call if villain bet the flop, you might still have to think what to do if his bet is 2x the pot, and you've never seen him do that before.

The great thing about planning ahead, especially in live play, is that you don't give so much away when you have to make a big decision. If you get check-raised you have already thought about what you'll do. When it's a total surprise, you have no choice but to think about it now, which villain might read something into - especially if you looked surprised at the time. If you have thought about it already, you can either act quickly or think for a minute to project whichever impression you choose.

One thing I have improved greatly in the past year is paying attention more at the table. To the point that I usually don't even use my iPod any more. I am looking for villain tendencies and making various plans and I am aware (usually) of all stack sizes and who may be steaming before I even look at my hole cards. I have an idea of which players I want to be in lots of pots with from anywhere and which players I want to play with bigger postional/hand strength edges.

Often I have a pretty good idea if the player(s) to my left are interested in the hand before the action is even on me.

So much of the information that goes into pre-flop planning can be processed already.

If my opponents are not as prepared before receiving their cards I have an edge.

I'm not suggesting you don't know this but your comment reminded me it's worth mentioning again.

I would say, at least the way I play, that position does not make it easier to plan a hand. It just makes every possible plan better. Sometimes this means that when we want value, we're more likely to get it. Sometimes this means that a plan which would have been unprofitable if tried out of position (like a call bluff on the flop, for example, or even calling a bet to chase an obvious draw) becomes profitable when you try it in position.

On the flip side of this, if I am hoping my opponent calls (or folds), but instead he raises, my plan has also gone wrong.

Part of any plan when you bet is what you're doing if it gets raised. So if there is a raise then your plan hasn't gone wrong

awesome post. great job.

Probably 95% of the people in this thread already know this, but I haven't seen it mentioned. For those who have not read Professional No-Limit Hold'em: Volume I, it lays out a system for hand planning over about 300 pages. The book has received mostly excellent reviews.

Thank you for the recommendation. I have yet to read this one. Much thanks.

I'll admit that I have not read that book. I'm sure that hurts my street cred or something...

i just want to say this is a great post and something I'm working on.

One thing it does is the situation is much clearer if you think ahead of time, because the emotion doesn't play into it (at least for me).

example: I think after I cbet a flop with two of a suit and I get a call from a passive drawing station and I think "well, if a flush card comes on the turn and he shows any strength, I'm laying down, 'cause this guy loves draws. OTOH, if the turn bricks I'm shoving 'cause I know this guy would always raise two pair or better on that flop". In either case it keeps me from second guessing when the card comes on the turn. There are times when I see what I feel is a legitimate tell that causes me to change the plan, but those are rare. Much more often, if I'm honest, is that I let the emotion of the situation make me lose perspective and I talk myself into a call (if the flush card comes, like by some miracle I'm ahead of this guy) or a bet into him to "see where I'm at" or maybe I wimp out on betting the turn in the case of a brick.

Anyway, my tilt issues are subtle, as I'm discovering. They are like little mini tilts that cause me to pursue a course that really doesn't have much thought behind it. Coming up with the plan IN ADVANCE takes much of the emotion out of it.

Just my two cents.

In this particular case plan B could be to keep the pot small (turn chk) or fold to pressure. AA is still a single pair in a multiway pot.

Great post Vernon
In an attempt to add just a touch of flavor;

"planning a hand" is necessary to maximize profits and minimize losses which separates the long term winners form the long term losers

This is a great thread. Recently (last 90 days or so) I have been making hand planning a big priority, including manipulating SPR preflop. I have seen my variance increase a little bit, as I am still learning how best to make this adjustment, but my profits are increasing considerably, and I am finding myself much more in control of the game.

I don't see how you can plan a hand much when you don't know how many ways it will be on the flop, how many people will call your flop bet, etc. But obv, great to try to plan as much as possible.

can you elaborate?
I kinda stopped planning bet sizing pre and on flop based on stack size b/c I don't know who is going to call, since everything is such a big multiway pot..

If you have a low SPR would you avoid playing small/medium suited connectors it there is no raise? What about in a pot with 4 or 5 limpers? I would like to hear some opinions on this please.

Implied semi-bluffing odds. My favorite story is number 3 where you folded actually and the winner tables J8. What a read on the range that's sick. Value fold all day, Checks all year.

What venue do you play at Dr. OP?

Excellent post by CallMeVernon.

When it comes to plugging leaks, I look forward to this ^^^^^ being as much help as the excellent info in OP's post. This is not standard practice for me, however, I have found myself floundering on the turn at times.

well, nicely written article for sure, but i really don´t agree with it tbh. you can´t really "plan a hand" preflop due to way too much possibilities for every hand to develop; all you really can do is try to play perfectly on any given street with the information available

so for example, if you have KJo in the bb, very good aggro villain raises CO unopened to 3x, giving him a range of SC 56+, any PP, any broadways, any suited kings + suited aces, and you decide to fold bc it´s a rio hand and you will be put in a lot of tough spots oop vs this very good opp (which both is true), you are making a mistake.

you easily got odds to defend here, and that´s exactly what you should do. you can´t really plan ahead imo in situations like that since you don´t know what develops. hence, although you don´t like the situation, from a mathematical point of view you should call, and that´s imo the only really quantifyable reason for your poker decision.

.

The EV of simply giving up our BB here is -1bb.

So the question becomes whether we think continuing OOP to a very good aggro Villain is more profitable than -1bb. Personally, I don't think it is, but that's me. And on top of that we can also add in the possible -EV of losing chips in our stack relative to the stacks of easier fish to fry at the table, tilting after the hand, etc.

ETA: And I know some might disagree with this as some still think this game is about the profit we make stealing the blinds, but the concept of "defending" our 1bb BB (which is like, what, 1% of our stack?) OOP to a very good player is kinda lol at a table where I'm assuming we'll have almost infinitely better spots to make a profit.

Gsickbump,imoG

Problem is: You've probably found yourself in this situation 100's of times & have run into every variable possible after the flop vs. a "very good aggro villain."

You know before the flop, what your default play is on a flop of QJ9r, so you don't need to plan for it. Those who don't, shouldn't be playing the hand. Instead, they should be doing their homework and building a foundation for BB defense against LP open/raise's.

OP's article gives you something to think about when building that foundation.

OP's 2nd part of his article is "Making a Plan After the Flop."

I think the reason you find fault in the article is that your playing experience is many levels above that in which the OP is trying to help, since your return is +Ev playing KJo against a "very good aggro villain" HU who open/raised in LP.

agree with all of that
i said i think the article is very well written, my post is maybe just something to keep in the back of the head

Some guys said you can't plan ahead because the cards don't fall perfectly. Planning a hand doesn't mean 1 plan. There are boards to fold, boards to c/c, boards to raise, etc. The plan should have maneuverability and options based on board textures. It's not a one-way street, it's a tree limb with several branches.

And as long as we're mentioning "one way"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SwaYAofxbIg&t=0m7s