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COTM: Planning a Hand COTM: Planning a Hand

07-22-2011 , 10:22 PM
Concept of the Month: Planning a Hand

Before I begin, I want to point out that I am far from the best player on this forum, and that what follows below is my own personal view only. I hope that other posters will be able to start a good conversation from at least something I've written here.

0. The Importance of Making a Plan

In the first few sections of No Limit Hold 'Em: Theory and Practice, the authors make several references to the fundamental importance of having a plan for each hand you play. For example, on p. 13, planning a hand is listed as a key underlying skill in manipulating the pot size. Also, on p. 20, at the end of the section on the Fundamental Theorem of Poker, the authors state:

Quote:
Plan ahead for bets later in the hand (and even for future hands), and don't allow yourself to fall into a difficult situation where you're likely to make a mistake.
Later they devote an entire section (pp.28-32) to constructing various plans for how to get stacks in with a flopped set 100 big blinds deep. The section is concluded with the following:

Quote:
Perhaps this process seems cumbersome or superfluous to you now. So many things can happen; perhaps you figure you should play one street at a time. But this sort of bet planning and pot size manipulation is the key to successful deep stack no limit. Learn to think this way during every hand, and you won't regret it.'' [Emphasis mine]
1. Making a Plan Before the Flop

When I play, I try to adhere to the following: never put any money into the pot without an idea for how I want the hand to play out. Obviously this starts with my preflop action.

The first thing I think after I look at my cards, but before folding, is: do these cards let me make a good plan to win the hand? What I mean here is, I want an idea for how the hand can play out with me maximizing what I can win while minimizing what I lose.

The most basic example is a random hand like K7o. Do these cards let me make a good plan to win the hand? The best-case scenario with this hand is to flop kings up or trip 7's. Then maybe I can win a big pot---but even when I make a hand like this, it's unlikely someone else made a hand good enough to play for big bets, but not better than my hand. Between the unlikeliness of making a "big pot" hand, the likelihood of losing a big pot, and the likelihood of making a mistake with a marginal hand like a pair of kings or sevens, I don't like the possibilities with this hand, even before I take stack sizes into account. That's why I fold those hands.

The next most basic example is when I look at a small pocket pair like 33. The only way I'm going to win a big pot with this hand (going to showdown) is to make a set and get a few big bets in. So obviously, Plan A with a hand like 33 is to flop a set and start getting the money in. Now the question becomes: how much money should I put in preflop to try to realize my plan? Obviously this is going to depend on the stack sizes. No matter what the stack size, I can obviously have a plan to set mine. But the plan is only a good plan if the stacks are deep enough. The size of the stacks might also determine whether I should limp in or whether I can raise.

Raising instead of limping allows a Plan B: if the flop texture is good for c-betting, I can sometimes take the pot down on the flop even if I don't make a set. This isn't supposed to be about when to c-bet, so I won't say any more about it, except for this: at LLSNL, where most people call too much, making people fold is always my Plan B or C, never my Plan A.

Notice that in this example, my plan for the hand includes the fact that after I make the set, I'm going to immediately get as much money in as I can. How I will do this is obviously going to depend on things like position, the preflop action, my opponents' tendencies, and the board texture, but my point here is, I'm already thinking about all these possibilities before the flop comes down, not after. Obviously I may tweak my plan depending on the exact board texture, but I have a general idea what I want to happen.

Other hands can be harder to play in some spots because they make different kinds of hands. So for example, small pocket pairs have only a Plan A and B: Plan A is to make a set and try to get all in, and Plan B is to bet with the intention of taking the pot down. (Plan C is to give up, and obviously sometimes we have to do this.) But now say instead of 33, we have AA. AA is just as likely to flop a set as 33, but with AA we have a very viable alternate plan: flopping an overpair and getting value out of worse 1 pair hands. With short stacks, this is my Plan A, and I'm happy to get all the money in. With deep stacks, this is my Plan B, but still often a good plan to extract money from my opponents.

Another example of a hand that makes different kinds of hands is suited connectors. They can make straights and flushes (or obviously 2 pair and trips, but that's true of any hand). I often treat these differently when I am planning the hand out because straights have better implied odds than flushes. Some hands like JT can sometimes flop a 1 pair hand that has a good chance to be the best hand, but this isn't (usually) my Plan A with hands like these. With a hand like suited connectors I obviously want stacks to be deep because that way my implied odds after the flop facing a bet can still be good if I choose to call a bet to draw.

2. Making A Plan After The Flop

Obviously, if I have a preflop plan, most times the flop will ruin that plan. But sometimes I will connect with the flop and want to continue. In those cases I need to figure out how big I want the pot to be on each street for the hand to develop the way I want by the river.

With a set, I'm trying to size my bets or raises to get the money in as quickly as possible. But if I have flopped a straight or flush draw, it's not always clear how best to proceed on the flop. It will depend on the exact situation and our opponents' tendencies. Sometimes the best plan is to semi-bluff; sometimes the best plan is to keep the pot small until the draw comes in.

As far as this relates to hand planning, all I want to say is this: I tend to get in the most trouble when I make one plan on the flop, then deviate from it on the later streets. For example, say I'm on the button and I flop a gutshot draw. Someone bets into me, an amount that offers 13:1 stack odds. If I read my opponent as being strong, I will usually call to draw to the straight. If it comes in on the turn, I will then plan to shovel in the money. If I miss and my opponent puts a big bet in, I'm planning to fold.

Now let's change it so that there is a flush draw on board. This makes it possible that we could bluff our opponent off his hand if he is not that strong and the turn completes a flush (that we don't have). I always decide whether I want to try this play before I call the flop bet. If I think my opponent is strong, or if I think he bets flush draws on the flop, or if I think flush cards aren't scare cards for this opponent, I don't do this. (I adjust by not semi-bluffing when I actually have the flush draw, because my implied odds would go up.)

The idea of calling the flop and then "seeing what happens" on the turn is not something I'm going to do very often, in that spot or in any other. Instead, I'm going to have multiple plans for the turn. I'm going to already know, once I call the flop bet, what I'm hoping comes on the turn. I'm going to know (or at least make an educated guess) whether I have "phantom outs". I'm going to know what I'm doing if my opponent bets again on the turn. I'm going to know what kind of turn cards would lead to me taking (or giving) a free card if it's checked to me in position. I'm going to know whether my aim is to control the pot size, bloat the pot size, or bluff.

Ideally, each street's plan should match up with the original preflop plan. For example, if I call a raise on the button, I usually have already put some thought into whether I'm ever going to try to steal the pot if I miss. If I decide preflop that I probably can't bluff, I don't like to change my mind midway through the hand. That's how I get in trouble.

3. Planning On The Turn

If you created a plan for your hand preflop and on the flop, you should be prepared for any turn card. But if your plan for the turn involves continuing with the hand, you should obviously now plan for the river as well. Planning for one card coming on the river is, in my opinion, mostly the same as planning for one card coming on the turn. However, because there is only one street of betting left after this one, there are now certain things I pay closer attention to on the turn than on the flop:

1. If I have a made hand and I want to play for stacks, I am now carefully planning out the best way to size my remaining bets to get stacks in. If my plan on the flop involved getting the money in on the turn, I'm now going to shove the turn. If it involved getting the money in on the river, I'm going to size my bet so that the two bets will each be relatively easy for my opponent to call. If I have flopped a set or some other monster, I'm already setting this up on the flop, but with a flopped draw that hit on the turn, I now will usually go from calling bets to raising them (or just making them), and this is when bet sizing goes from important to very important. (If the stacks are so deep that it will take more than 2 bets to get stacks in, I just hope my opponent raises me at some point.)

2. If I am still drawing, I have to remember that if I call a bet on the turn, I only have one more street to get any money in. This drastically slashes my implied odds with any draw, especially out of position, which means that under most circumstances I'm going to fold to a well-sized bet.

4. When The Plan Goes Wrong

This section will be short. Since I place heavy emphasis on planning how I want each hand to develop, obviously the only time I'm ever in a tough spot is when either: 1) my plan was no good from the beginning (this happens sometimes, I'll admit), or 2) my opponent does something that doesn't fit in with my plan. For example, if I bet hoping that my opponent calls, but instead he folds, my plan has gone wrong.

On the flip side of this, if I am hoping my opponent calls (or folds), but instead he raises, my plan has also gone wrong. (This includes times when I expect it to be checked to me and my opponent leads out instead.) When my plan goes wrong and the pot is getting big, I usually fold. Sometimes maybe I get bluffed, but in the games I play, most of my opponents don't have the balls to bluff huge, so if I run into one who does, I take special note of it and plan whole hands differently against them in the future.

5. A Few Personal Examples

Maybe it is best if instead of continuing to be abstract, I give a few examples. I'm just going to discuss some hands that stick out in my memory, either that I played or I have seen others play, from the perspective of making--or failing to make--a good, detailed plan for the hand.

Hand 1 Here's a hand I played from a long time ago. I don't remember the exact details, but I remember the lesson I learned from it. I was playing 1/2, fairly deep, but not very deep; maybe the effective stacks were 100-125bb. A solid reg raises to $12 from early (close to middle) position and it folds to me in the BB with ATo. I called $10. My plan was to win a small or medium-sized pot with top pair. The flop brought an A and two low cards. I checked, the reg bet, and I called. When I called the flop, I was hoping the reg would check behind on the turn and I could check/call a river bet. But that's not what happened: he put in a sizeable turn bet (the turn was also a low card). I thought he would do this with an ace that had me dominated, or sometimes a total bluff, but most likely I was beat, so I folded.

I had a plan for this hand on this flop, and I followed through with it by folding. But the lesson I learned was that my preflop plan was not a good plan. If I can flop top pair on a non-threatening board and still have to worry about being dominated, I really had no business playing the hand at all. I should have just folded preflop. I won't say any more about hands like this here, because we already had a COTM about this, courtesy of venice10 ("Trouble Hands").

Hand 2 Here's another hand I was involved in that illustrates a different point. Again I'm playing 1/2. I raised UTG to $10 with effective stacks around $475. (It doesn't matter what I had because our hero in this hand is not me.) Player 1 (the hero) calls with QT. Player 2 (the villain) raises to $35 out of the blinds. I quickly call, as does the hero.

The flop comes AJx rb. Villain bets $35 into a pot of about $100. I fold, and our hero calls. Now I'm not exactly sure what hero's plan was when he called the flop. He must have figured that he had some implied odds if he hit a K, as well as possibly being able to steal the pot on the turn if villain checked. (He also had backdoor outs.)

Anyway, the turn brings a K. Villain now checks, and Hero bets $75. Villain thinks for awhile and calls. So now the pot is $320. The river is a blank, Villain checks again, and Hero fires $200. Villain reluctantly calls with AK and loses a bundle.

In my opinion, the Hero butchered this hand on the turn. After the flop betting, there is $400 left in the effective stacks, and $170 in the pot. Once Hero makes the nuts, he should be planning his bet sizing so that he can get Villain to call a river shove. A $75 bet and call puts $320 in the pot and $325 left for a river shove. Once Hero got to the river, he decided to bet less to ensure a call. He wanted Villain to call a big bet feeling pot committed.

But if this is the case, Hero should have been planning for this on the turn. What if he bets $125 instead of $75 on the turn? If he's called, that would put $420 in the pot instead of $320, with $275 left for a river shove. If Villain is going to call $200 into a $320 pot, surely he'd also call $275 into a $420 pot. Furthermore, the way the action went, and with what's on the board, it's extremely unlikely that Villain has a hand he's willing to call $75 with on the turn, but not $125.

In my opinion, Hero should have gotten Villain's whole stack in this hand, but didn't get the last $125 because he didn't have a good plan for his betting.

Hand 3 This is a hand I played recently where I saved some money by looking ahead to future streets. Again playing 1/2, I pick up T9o in the CO. There are a couple of limpers in front of me, a fish on the button behind me, and effective stacks are fairly deep (over 100bb) so I decide to limp and take a cheap flop. My idea for this hand is that I want to make a straight or 2 pair, and occasionally I can win a small pot if I make 1 pair (but that's Plan B, and I'm folding to any semblance of action with 1 pair). Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

The flop comes 887 with 2 clubs. So I have flopped an open-ender. The BB leads out for $15, a slight overbet, and a loose-passive player calls from MP. Most of the time when I flop a straight draw in a tiny pot I like to at least see a turn, but I stopped and thought about it and ultimately decided to fold.

The key is that I didn't think there was any good plan for any future action. What happens if I make my straight? Let's say the turn comes a J and BB bets again. Well, she checked her option as the BB. She could have anything. She could have trips and I could stack her by raising; but she could also have 87, 77, or even J8 and have me drawing dead. What if there's a flush draw out there? Both BB and MP could easily have one at this point, meaning even if I make the straight, there's a possible redraw to a flush as well as maybe a board double-pair. There's also the possibility that the button, who hasn't acted, calls or raises behind me with any of the hands I fear (a flopped full house, or J8, or 86). And this is just what I have to worry about when I hit my hand!

Since the prospects of hitting and still being in trouble were too great, I decided this was a fold on the flop. This hand went to showdown and the button actually won the hand with J8. I was glad that I thought about this possibility before I called the flop, and not after, as it saved me at least $15.

Hand 4 Finally, here's a hand (again at 1/2) where observing an opponent's tendencies from past hands helped me create a good plan for this hand. The main villain in this hand is on the button, and I am in the SB. (I have moved to get on his left.) Action limps around to villain who raises to $15. Effective stacks are around $370.

Now before I even tell you what I had, let me first tell you what I noticed about villain previously. From prior action, I have deduced that: 1) this villain very rarely raises preflop, but likes to call raises; 2) when villain makes a strong hand, he tends to bet "standard" amounts without thinking about the pot size, and these amounts are usually underbets; 3) villain does not consider board texture and only thinks about his absolute hand strength in a vacuum. In particular I have seen him play non-flush hands for big river bets even after flush draws come in.

So given these tendencies, obviously when I look at my cards I'm hoping to find some kind of suited-connector type hand. Even with a positional disadvantage, I can call off less than 5% of my stack preflop hoping to flop a draw and exploit villain's weak and predictable betting patterns, and I can expect him to have a strong starting hand here since he raised preflop.

Now I will tell you my hand: QJ

Almost exactly what I want to see here, but when I call I'm already telling myself that I'm not very interested in making top pair. I want a straight or flush draw on the flop. I am at a big positional disadvantage here, but I feel that the villain's tendencies will make up for this. So I call $15 and 2 of the limpers also call. The pot is roughly $60 heading to the flop.

The flop comes K-9-rag rb with one diamond. A gutshot and a backdoor flush draw. Everyone checks to villain, who bets $20. I decide to call here because, well, my implied odds are really, really good. 4:1 pot odds with an extra 16:1 stack odds. My plan here is to check any turn, including ones that make my straight, because I'm very confident villain will bet again. Also, the other two players in the hand now fold, leaving us heads-up to the turn.

The turn is the A, which is a great card for me. I check, as planned, and villain now bets $40 into a pot of $100. With over 3:1 direct pot odds and another 7.5:1 stack odds beyond that, I decide to call and check any river, with the intention of shoving if I hit a T or a diamond, but folding on anything else.

The river is a low diamond (board is not paired). I follow through with my plan and check, knowing that this villain will bet with the strong part of his range, which is what I'm trying to extract value from anyway.

Not only does villain bet, but he bets $100. With just under $300 left in my stack, I shove, and he takes all of 2 seconds before calling with a flopped set of nines, doubling me up.

Against a different opponent, this might have been a fold preflop, way out of position with a marginal hand that could get me in trouble. But knowing my opponent led me to form a good plan for proceeding with the hand, and I stuck with it and won the maximum.
COTM: Planning a Hand Quote
07-22-2011 , 10:30 PM
I'll note that by far planning is the biggest mistake I see in HHs by players who have the basics down. It is also a significant reason that keeps players in LLSNL. Look forward to the discussion.
COTM: Planning a Hand Quote
07-23-2011 , 01:44 AM
More Please! Thanks so much.
COTM: Planning a Hand Quote
07-23-2011 , 11:03 AM
Nice. Hand 2 is particularly illustrative for me, as I tend to bet pot fractions more than setting up playing for stacks. I probably leave a lot of value on the table that way. Something for me to think about...
COTM: Planning a Hand Quote
07-23-2011 , 12:16 PM
Good thoughts overall. Hand 1 is pretty terrible imo. Calling a 6x raise with no money in the pot from an early pos open vs a "solid reg" while being out of position with a hand that is often dominated by an early raisers range (enough reasons to fold yet?). What's your best case scenario here? You can flop top 2 vs his AK I guess, but most often you'll miss and when you do hit your hand you'll often be beat. And even if you do have the best hand he's a solid reg and prob not gonna spew off money to you with a weaker holding. He can pot control or barrel at will as well. In your defense you didn't say what you'd do if you had missed or what u'd do on certain textures, but overall it's a bad spot.
COTM: Planning a Hand Quote
07-23-2011 , 02:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Skleice
Hand 1 is pretty terrible imo. Calling a 6x raise with no money in the pot from an early pos open vs a "solid reg" while being out of position with a hand that is often dominated by an early raisers range (enough reasons to fold yet?). What's your best case scenario here? You can flop top 2 vs his AK I guess, but most often you'll miss and when you do hit your hand you'll often be beat. And even if you do have the best hand he's a solid reg and prob not gonna spew off money to you with a weaker holding. He can pot control or barrel at will as well.
Yeah, agree 100%. I played that hand a long time ago, and after I folded the turn I thought to myself, "What was I even doing in this hand to begin with?" Thinking about that hand helped me in my own game, so I figured I'd share it here as well. I have absolutely nothing to say in my own defense about how I played it.
COTM: Planning a Hand Quote
07-24-2011 , 04:29 AM
Well written. Thanks.
COTM: Planning a Hand Quote
07-24-2011 , 08:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by paul rizzo
Well written. Thanks.
+1. I have an irrational unwillingness to bet pot OTF in order to set up a river shove, or turn bet, for fear of losing my customer, and this article is going to really help my development. Thanks!
COTM: Planning a Hand Quote
07-24-2011 , 09:19 PM
One thing that helped me think about bet sizing the way I do now is a chapter of NLHT&P called "Thinking In Terms Of Expectation: Playing The Nuts On The River", pp. 21-24. Much later in the book they also talk about how in certain tournament situations, ensuring a call to build up your stack can be more important than maximizing your expectation. But I don't worry about that at all in the cash games I play in.
COTM: Planning a Hand Quote
07-24-2011 , 11:54 PM
Quote:
I was playing 1/2, fairly deep, but not very deep; maybe the effective stacks were 100-125bb. A solid reg raises to $12 from early (close to middle) position and it folds to me in the BB with ATo. I called $10.
I know this thread is about planning, but just curious... at 1/2 do you still call 6xBB raises from solid regs who are in E/MP when you're OPP with ATo?...

Good thread. I'm looking forward to continued discussion.
COTM: Planning a Hand Quote
07-25-2011 , 12:05 AM
Nowadays I hardly EVER call raises with hands like ATo, even when I'm in position.
COTM: Planning a Hand Quote
07-25-2011 , 04:37 AM
it's funny. i lost a hand to a guy who called a raise IP against me with ATo tonight.

i think part of the problem with having a plan for a hand is that the plan has to be very fluent or you are going to cost yourself money.

you raise in EP with AA ... your initial plan is to win a huge pot. you get six callers because it is $1/$2 and no one folds. now, you must come up with plan B. say the flop is J 7 2 rainbow. well, we're going to c-bet this flop. you get two callers. time for plan c. c could also stand for confused. because you are either WA/WB here against the stations that are playing $1/$2. The turn is a K. If our plan was to continue firing, do we do that here? Since 90 percent of $1/$2 players think a hand like KJo is the nuts, we've now smashed their range for top two pair. do we have to fire again? yeah, probably. and now we get raised. we've put in a large portion of our stack and could be drawing pretty slim. we've gone through plan D and E here on one street.

so while i understand the thought process behind developing a plan for a hand, i think that plan really has to be fluid throughout.
COTM: Planning a Hand Quote
07-25-2011 , 05:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ibelieveinkolb
it's funny. i lost a hand to a guy who called a raise IP against me with ATo tonight.

i think part of the problem with having a plan for a hand is that the plan has to be very fluent or you are going to cost yourself money.

you raise in EP with AA ... your initial plan is to win a huge pot. you get six callers because it is $1/$2 and no one folds. now, you must come up with plan B. say the flop is J 7 2 rainbow. well, we're going to c-bet this flop. you get two callers. time for plan c. c could also stand for confused. because you are either WA/WB here against the stations that are playing $1/$2. The turn is a K. If our plan was to continue firing, do we do that here? Since 90 percent of $1/$2 players think a hand like KJo is the nuts, we've now smashed their range for top two pair. do we have to fire again? yeah, probably. and now we get raised. we've put in a large portion of our stack and could be drawing pretty slim. we've gone through plan D and E here on one street.

so while i understand the thought process behind developing a plan for a hand, i think that plan really has to be fluid throughout.
lol interesting point... perhaps you just need an adaptive plan, value or bluff?
COTM: Planning a Hand Quote
07-25-2011 , 08:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ibelieveinkolb
i think part of the problem with having a plan for a hand is that the plan has to be very fluent or you are going to cost yourself money.

you raise in EP with AA ... your initial plan is to win a huge pot.
TBH, these statements show why you're struggling. Let's take the last statement first. It is an old adage that you win small pots with AA and lose big ones. The reason is that you're almost always going to be the pfr and have the initiative on the flop. While level 1 players are thinking about only their hand strength, they aren't thinking, "Wow pretty cards, let's call with these." They are comparing their hand strength with TP. They instinctively know that if they can beat TP, they are in good shape.

Unfortunately if they can beat TP, they can beat AA. Therefore, they might call down with TP, but that is only if the price is right. That means it doesn't cost too much. Knowing what is "too much" is a skill in itself. If they are willing to risk 100 BB, it means they are ahead often. If they can't beat TP and face a good sized bet, they just either call one street (to re-evaluate on the turn) or fold.

Of course if you can get a set over set situation, that's great. However, that's going to happen about 1.5% of the time with AA, or about once every 14,700 hands. At 30 hands per hour, you'll see this once every 490 hours of play. Don't hold your breath.

The only real decision I'm making pf is at what price am I willing to pay to see a flop with the cards I have. It doesn't make any sense to do more than that. That price can be my stack (AA) or absolutely zero (72o). Naturally, there are a lot of factors that vary the amount I'm willing to pay.

The reason for not doing any more planning than that is I'm only seeing 28.5% of the cards I'll be playing by the river. However, on the flop I'm now seeing 71% of the cards I'm playing by the river. That's a huge difference. I know who and how many are also interested in the hand. It is on the flop I'm doing my significant planning. If I was the pfr and have TP/OP, I'm setting a budget of how much I think a worse hand can pay and planning on how to distribute that money over 3 streets of betting. The wetness of the board will vary the distribution.

If I missed, the planning often involves folding to a bet. If I'm going to try to win the pot, I'll know how much I want to invest against the villains and still have a reasonable chance to see a fold.

If I'm not the pf raiser, then the planning is a bit more complicated. The concepts are the same, though. How much will I budget to play this hand? How do I want to see it spent?

In all of this, the villain in question will be a factor in that budget. Against some villains, stacks are going in if possible with TP. Therefore, I'm not folding to a raise. Others play extremely straight-forward and if the hand looks like it is going to exceed budget because of a raise, I'm folding. Extremely rare at LLSNL, there are some villains where I'm going to have a stretch budget. I'd like to keep it at "X" but because they are LAGs to maniacs, I'm going to have to accept spending more.

Many HHs in LLSNL has a lack of planning at the core of the struggle with the hand. The nice thing about plans is that once you have it in place, you're not faced with tough decisions. You've already decided what you want to do. I'm not saying that some plans aren't bad. "Call and re-evaluate on the turn" is a classic leak, but it can be fixed far more easily than the leak that every hand is played out uniquely depending on the moment.

Finally, while most of the hand is out on the flop, it doesn't mean that the turn and river don't matter. If you have a set and there is a FD potentially out, then you have other decisions to make if the 3rd card comes on the turn. Those decisions should be made on the flop though.
COTM: Planning a Hand Quote
07-26-2011 , 10:57 AM
Lol, you really outplayed this guy in hand 4. Called down to runner a flush and stCked a flop SET. Lol, not the best example IMO.

Good article though.
COTM: Planning a Hand Quote
07-26-2011 , 01:20 PM
Nice post... but why did villain in hand 2 not bet the turn LOL?
COTM: Planning a Hand Quote
07-26-2011 , 06:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by masaraksh
Lol, you really outplayed this guy in hand 4. Called down to runner a flush and stCked a flop SET. Lol, not the best example IMO.

Good article though.
true, but still played right. it's great when dudes play so bad and allow you to play perfectly.

Old guy flopped a set of QQ on a AQx flop, checked oop, i checked behind with j10, x on the turn, check check (lol) do i need to say a King binks? he bets 40 into 50 (it was a straddled pot raised by him) i ship for 450 all day, snapped called, ship it lol
COTM: Planning a Hand Quote
07-27-2011 , 11:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by masaraksh
Lol, you really outplayed this guy in hand 4. Called down to runner a flush and stCked a flop SET. Lol, not the best example IMO.

Good article though.
If this is what you got out of hand #4, then you're thinking in terms of results and missing the entire point.

Before getting to the showdown, you don't know villains exact cards, only his range and his tendencies, or what he is likely do on future streets.

Rather than making a blanket statement, try saying which of the 7 actions Hero took that you disagree with (preflop call, flop check, flop call, turn check, turn call, river check, and/or river shove).

I see this type of villain frequently (one that underbets and stacks off on unfavorable boards) often enough that I appreciate getting help on how to get his stack, while not losing much when I miss.
COTM: Planning a Hand Quote
07-28-2011 , 02:46 AM
Thanks so much Vernon. Only had a chance to glance through but it looks good so far. Will try to take some time and possibly add to it as soon as I have power back ... Sigh storms in Chicagoland...

Anyways, SplitSuit did a video and COTW in uNLFR back in 2010 that dealt with planning and default line creation as well. If anyone is looking for additional info on planning, he shared a lot of great ideas about planning default lines in that COTW.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78...eation-843218/
COTM: Planning a Hand Quote
07-29-2011 , 12:34 AM
A plan should encompass multiple possibilities rather than changing street by street. Plan B should only come into play when presented with new information. Let's breakdown your post:

Quote:
Originally Posted by ibelieveinkolb
you raise in EP with AA ... your initial plan is to win a huge pot.
That's a goal. How you intend to achieve your goal is the plan. Also, focus on extracting maximum value while ahead instead of winning a large pot. Aces aren't nukes.

Quote:
you get six callers because it is $1/$2 and no one folds.
Then your raise is too small. Recon missions are essential in war. Raise varied amounts when you first sit at the table until you find their breaking point. Take note and raise to this amount whenever you want 1 or 2 callers.

Quote:
now, you must come up with plan B. say the flop is J 7 2 rainbow. well, we're going to c-bet this flop. you get two callers.
This flop is too dry for multiple callers. Bet larger. TP is your target and extraction is easier heads up. Alternatively, if you are heads up on the flop you can bet smaller to get value from smaller pairs and gutshots.

Quote:
time for plan c. c could also stand for confused. because you are either WA/WB here against the stations that are playing $1/$2. The turn is a K. If our plan was to continue firing, do we do that here? Since 90 percent of $1/$2 players think a hand like KJo is the nuts, we've now smashed their range for top two pair. do we have to fire again? yeah, probably.
It is not an equal divide. You are WA far more than WB. KJ is only part of their range and you have outs against 2p. Your line depends on your opponent, and you should know it before you cbet. Against most b/c, but that K is a good bluffing card. Against fish who float or automatically bet overcards you can check to induce.

Quote:
and now we get raised. we've put in a large portion of our stack and could be drawing pretty slim. we've gone through plan D and E here on one street.
so while i understand the thought process behind developing a plan for a hand, i think that plan really has to be fluid throughout.
Unless you are deepstacked you will usually have to take the chance with AA. Know thy opponent. Plan a line that creates the best scenario for your hand. You can exploit players who call with worse by valuebetting, utilize passive actions to keep an aggressive fish's range wide, or anything else you can think of. Use your intel and be creative.
COTM: Planning a Hand Quote
07-29-2011 , 11:27 AM
Nice post.

I'll admit I'm not the greatest hand planner and I think I more-or-less fly by the seat of my pants from street to street far too often (ex. I'm typically the call-and-reevaluate-turn guy, with a hazy idea of what I'm going to do, but certainly haven't worked it out exactly). I also find it a lot more difficult to plan hands (especially for bet sizing moving towards getting stacks in, etc.) in the heat of the moment at the table; I find I still spend a lotta time after the hand is over evaluating if I did things ok rather than as the hand is actually happening. Hopefully this becomes easier with experience.

GcluelessNLnoobG
COTM: Planning a Hand Quote
07-29-2011 , 04:00 PM
Great read, hand 2 in particular is good-- very much what NLHE: T&P preaches. Well done! Always good to get a reminder to plan hands because it is sometimes easy to forget.
COTM: Planning a Hand Quote
07-30-2011 , 02:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by masaraksh
Lol, you really outplayed this guy in hand 4. Called down to runner a flush and stCked a flop SET. Lol, not the best example IMO.
masara, you should have figured out that this article was not really aimed at you.

Seriously, though, there are a lot of people in this forum who I'm sure would not have played Hand 4 the same way I did. I think a lot of people would have check-raised the turn when they picked up the diamond draw, or else they would have donked out the river, afraid of a check behind if they checked. Against other villains these actions might have been correct, but not against this one.

The point of this hand is not that I made any tough decisions; it's that I was able to form a good plan to stack this villain based on my knowledge of his tendencies, and once I had the plan all I had to do was stick with it, hope the cards agree with me, and the hand plays itself.
COTM: Planning a Hand Quote
07-30-2011 , 04:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CallMeVernon
The point of this hand is not that I made any tough decisions; it's that I was able to form a good plan to stack this villain based on my knowledge of his tendencies, and once I had the plan all I had to do was stick with it, hope the cards agree with me, and the hand plays itself.
Making the plan is far easier than executing it. First, the cards and other players will frequently not cooperate, but the hardest part is remembering the plan in the heat of the hand.

While I personally hate "call and reevaluate", I find that only a small fraction of plans actually come close to preflop visions and most hands are played action, by action. This makes preflop planning very hard to get used to doing. Though it is beautiful when it does happen.
COTM: Planning a Hand Quote
07-31-2011 , 12:18 AM
nice post. i made it a habit to keep multiple options open on each street.
COTM: Planning a Hand Quote

      
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