Can we possibly fold to a Loose Passive on river chk/ raise here? - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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Can we possibly fold to a Loose Passive on river chk/ raise here?

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07-24-2016 , 01:38 AM

wager9

journeyman

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 257

2/5 NL Live

V1 Arab guy: Splashy.
V2: Arab guy (his friend) - very Loose Passive. Limps almost every hand including the top of his range. Plays the same post flop as well. Will check everything including nuts on every street if OOP. Calls fairly wide as well but not a total calling station

I open in Co with K

with 500 behind to 15. V1 calls with 250 behind. V2 calls with 150 behind.

Pot = 45
Flop: J

Checks to me. I check.

POT = 45
Turn: 6

Checks to me. I bet 25. V2 calls.

POT= 95
River: K

V2 checks. I bet 55. He shoves for about 70 more...Can we possibly fold this?

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07-24-2016 , 01:44 AM

DK Barrel

Concept of the Week author

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 6,797

You need to be good 1 in 5 times for calling to be correct.

You can expect to lose and still profitably call.

Folding would be bad.

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07-24-2016 , 02:32 AM

Amanaplan

acanalpanamA

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 5,628

When you hold the Kc and given the line, it's harder to find a hand worse than KJ that he's shoving for value, that makes me want to fold even given the odds to call.

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07-24-2016 , 03:30 AM

SABR42

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 23,041

Fold.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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07-24-2016 , 05:00 AM

bluffcity

enthusiast

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 63

Think given your read, if it's 100% accurate, you can make an exploitative fold here. Don't see anything that this player is shoving that you beat.

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07-24-2016 , 06:59 AM

WereBeer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 10,700

Your read is 'only raises the nuts' and our hand is far from the nuts. If your read is good, fold, move on.

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07-24-2016 , 07:23 AM

HappyLuckBox

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 1,491

??
cant tell if these replies are trolling or not. snap call

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07-24-2016 , 07:27 AM

venice10

Referee

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 25,852

Quote:

Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox

??
cant tell if these replies are trolling or not. snap call

You probably missed the read that he only raises with the nuts.

If that is true, then it is an easy fold. If the read is wrong, then call.

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07-24-2016 , 08:33 AM

BombayBadBeat

newbie

Join Date: Jun 2016 Posts: 16

I think we can fold here pretty comfortably given reads. By the sounds of it villain would take this line with most likely hands of QQ, AT & T9...plenty of combos there. As for hands we beat I'm struggling to think of one unless it's a f*** it all in otr w KThh

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07-24-2016 , 03:01 PM

#10

Jamitontheriver

adept

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,137

Quote:

Originally Posted by WereBeer

Your read is 'only raises the nuts' and our hand is far from the nuts. If your read is good, fold, move on.

Please show me where it says this read in OP. Pretty sure that if he thought V only shoved the nuts he wouldn't ask our opinions on what V is shoving with.

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07-24-2016 , 03:06 PM

#11

wager9

journeyman

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 257

Quote:

Originally Posted by venice10

You probably missed the read that he only raises with the nuts.

If that is true, then it is an easy fold. If the read is wrong, then call.

Never said he only will do this with nuts. I said he will check nuts as well as everything else. As far as his AI raise on river that is where my read gets flimsy. Its probably nutty but it doesnt have to be.

As he is not a great player, I can assume now and again he will overplay. These TP types sometimes will overplay 2 pair or something.

I don't expect to be ahead a lot here but what I was wondering is if you all thought it was frequent enough to justify a call getting the odds we are getting.

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07-24-2016 , 06:21 PM

#12

WereBeer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 10,700

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jamitontheriver

Please show me where it says this read in OP. Pretty sure that if he thought V only shoved the nuts he wouldn't ask our opinions on what V is shoving with.

OK, but that's what it sounded like to me. If he has worse in his range, OK we usually call, depending on the range.

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07-24-2016 , 06:30 PM

#13

Jarretman

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 2,937

Bet $40 or $45 on flop and shove turn (if V2 is the only caller) and I don't think it's that close.

As played I'm calling. I don't expect to be good that often, but often enough to be +EV for sure. I'm also betting more on turn and probably just shipping K river.

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07-24-2016 , 08:09 PM

#14

BackDoorFlush

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 2,171

More pre. More OTF. Shove turn.

As played, snap call. Sorry he had T9.

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07-24-2016 , 08:50 PM

#15

Corto Montez

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 423

Unless we have a read that this guy tends to over-value hands, this is definitely a fold. Our read that he will slow-play huge hands all the way to the river makes it even more of a fold, as we can't even remove JJ-KK from his range here, and he has all T9/AT combos as well. Can't really see a hand which he would check-shove here that we're ahead of, except maybe QJ, but given how passive he is, I consider that rather unlikely.

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07-24-2016 , 11:50 PM

#16

wager9

journeyman

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 257

Quote:

Originally Posted by Corto Montez

Unless we have a read that this guy tends to over-value hands, this is definitely a fold.

Yeah this is crucial.

His range after the Ck Rz, IMO, was pretty nutty:

KK-JJ,66,33,ATs,KJs+,QJs,T9s,ATo,KJo+,QJo,T9o
I am about 14% vs it...not getting the price. Should have folded vs this V in this spot I think.

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07-25-2016 , 02:43 AM

#17

MastaC707

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 283

Im not even gonna read the hand hx. Can we fold to a loose passive check raise on the river??? Yes Passive and river check raise don't go together, so its likely a good hand.

Masta--

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