1/2 home game.

Hero ($200): early 30s WG. Seen as TAG/nitty by villain. We have lots of history where he has run big bluffs on hero, sometimes successfully, sometimes not.

Villain (covers): early 20's Asian. Tightish pre, very willing to make moves post. I view him as good and he knows it.

Three limps to V on the BTN and he raises to $15. SB folds, hero calls in BB with 99 and one limper comes along.

Flop ($50) 773

Hero checks, expecting V to bet. Thoughts on leading here? I feel like he's going to barrel a bunch and I have a good hand to call with. MP checks, villain checks. Now I'm planning on leading a bunch of turns, as I feel I'm well ahead.

Turn ($50) 9

Now I feel like betting is bad. I check, MP checks, Villain bets $20. I c/r to $50 to keep him in with draws and maybe induce a shove. MP folds and villain tank calls after 45 seconds.

River ($150) J

Do I jam here for close to pot, or check and hope he bluffs at it? At this point when he just calls turn I think he's drawing or somewhat weak. If he had T8, he's betting river, and will almost certainly bluff his missed flushes. Maybe bet small and get value from pairs and get a bluff jam to pick off <10% of the time?

He doesn't have many bluffs here so I would just bet for value.

Bet the turn. There are lots of hands that could and would call (including overpairs, flush draws, 7x hands, and some straight draws). You might even get raised by someone holding a 7. So just lead out. I might suggest betting $25 into the $50 pot.

OTR, once you've checkraised the turn, you should continue to lead the betting on the river. Players don't bluff enough on the river at these stakes. Besides, you check-raised the turn and he still called. He might have called with a draw, but he also might have called with a hand that he considered too good to fold.

If there's $150 in the pot, I'd bet $50-$75 on the river. Shade the bet towards the lower end of the range if you think he has a weak, but made hand. If you think there's any chance he actually has a 7 in his hand, then go ahead and bet $100-$150.

Raise turn bigger

Jam now

Can't really expect him to bluff after your turn c/r line. AP, cross your fingers and bet near pot

I would bet turn, but with the hand AP I would get it in here.

I'm afraid our turn x/r has probably scared off most overpairs and some 7x hands. Maybe some $50-$65 bets will get a call that a shove wouldn't, but can give up value with that play. Villain might even be more convinced he is beat and do less bluff-catching with Jx hands as well. Since you are viewed as nitty probably not getting a call with anything other than 7x hands at this point.

Agree with a lot of this, but with a few observations.

First, it's hard to see how Villain has a J in his hand, unless it is a hand like AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, or (god forbid) JJ. There aren't too many other hands including a J that would fit the betting patterns. Notably, none of these hands can call a big bet OTR other than JJ.

Second, there are lots of overpairs that can call a value bet. Many 1/2 NL players would find it hard to lay down big pair hands like TT+ for an additional $30 when there's $120 in the pot after the turn C/R. Again, none of these hands can call a big bet OTR other than JJ.

Finally, Villain may very well be holding a 7, but it doesn't really fit with the preflop action. Other than A7s and 77, there are not really any hands that Villain could be holding that would include a 7 and be the type that a typical 1/2 NL player would raise to $15 pre-flop.

All of this has to factor into how much to bet OTR. If Hero really thinks that this Villain has a lot of 7s in his pre-flop raising range, then by all means bet big. It is the extremely rare 1/2 NL player who is capable of laying down trips just because he suspects that he might have a kicker problem.

But if Hero concludes that an overpair is more likely, then I think you have to size your river bet to something smaller that lays irresistible pot odds. As difficult as it is for lots of 1/2 NL players let go of Aces or Kings, a good many of them will still fold them to big river bets on obviously dangerous boards.

Bottom lines: I'd bet the river rather than hope for a bluff; and I'd shade my bet on the smaller side unless I have good reason to believe either (a) there's a decent chance Villain is holding a 7; or (b) Villain is a calling station who could not bear to fold Aces, Kings or Queens when they are still the top pair on the river.

I'm surprised V didn't cbet this flop. It is only 3way, low paired board, he should expect a lot of folds. I certainly think he'd bet hs flush draws on the flop given V description. I think V would also bet flop with his over pairs, 7X, gutshots with 65, 54 and 64. Maybe he'd even cbet any two largish over cards too. That doesn't leave many checking hands!

So what is he checking flop with but continuing turn? Hands containing a 9, of which there are few, slow played over pairs, 7X, 33 and any turned straight draws: JT J8 T8 86.

Combined with your turn x/r scaring V off bluffing this makes the river a bet in my opinion. I think I'd size it to the maximum V can call with 7X+. He should realise JX and over pairs are bluff catchers here so he's not likely to call again unless he thinks you are bluffing. Going small on the bet won't get more calls and in fact could look like you want a call so bad he may fold more easily.

Bet pot to collect max value from 7X+ and know that he'll level himself into trying to catch a bluff with one-pair sometimes too. In this spot you actually can have more busted flush draws than V so him thinking you are bluffing river is not impossible.

If villain didn't have history and a correct view of hero as a nit (hero might not be, but in this hand the alleged "nit" is putting money in with a monster so villain's view is correct in this hand) then I would agree. However, in my opinion villain isn't calling with overpairs or Jx flush draws when hero has x/r OTT and is leading OTR. I also disagree slightly about the betting patterns of 7x hands. Considering position pre villain could raise with a lot of 7x hands and slow play them OTF hoping for hero or others to catch up. When it checks to villain on the turn, he would bet small hoping to keep people in the hand and get some value. After a x/r 7x with weak kicker might give pause to a nit betting into him. TL;DR villain can have 7x.

If villain has overpairs is he really going to check the flop? Will he bet that small on the turn with a flush draw? (Not rhetorical, just wondering. I think less likely.)

The hands I'm targeting are 7x hands here, since most overpairs don't jive with the hand to me and likely aren't paying me off anyway. Jx hands are possible but not paying us off. Betting too small might either convince villain we are never bluffing or limit our value from calls, so I get it in here. We agree at least that we must bet something rather than hope for a bluff from villain.