Hi all. 1/2 game
Fold to me in LJ(800$) К 10 saw the Cut off grab chips well before the action (15$) I limp 2$
Cut-off(Main Villain) (450$) raise 15$ plays fairly straight forward however is not a nit.
BB(300$) call ,
I call as well
3-way Action
Flop (45$) Q 10 6
We both check . Main Villain C-bet 40$ , BB fold , I call
Turn (125$) A
I check. He bets 100$
Hero raises to 400$

We block the nut flush, if villain is competent, he will be able to fold a smaller flush/set .
AA or QQ
AQ ?
Did I choose a bad spot to bluff with my specific hand?
what better bluffs have in this spot/

I think this is a fine spot to bluff, with the 3rd diamond dropping you're representing a flush. Even if you get called, you have a redraw to the nut flush on the river.

Why would you play this hand at all pre, especially knowing there will be a raise behind you? Fold pre twice and fold KTo from the LJ as a standard.

I would play post the same way, but don’t expect small flushes to fold.

I like the concept, but I think the stack sizes make this a little awkward. You’re repping a L high or Q high flush? Would you really over PSB jam the turn with the effective nuts? Or with a smaller flush? I think a thinking V would look you up with AQ+, maybe as low as A10. Certainly V is calling with a set or straight. I think generally multi street bluffs work better than a single bullet but the stacks don’t really allow for that here. Probably works because the absolute size of the bet is large but I wouldn’t attempt it versus a moron or thinking player. Nitty, Mubsy players surely fold.

Def fold pre. *Especially* when you sense he is raising. Playing this hand out of position is a leak (and many would dump it on the button).

On the turn, you mentioned 'raise to $400', but this is actually 'all-in', correct? He only had $295 after he bet $100 on the turn... Probably fine I suppose...

Also wondering why you played this hand pre, especially knowing CO was going to raise?

Turn is fine. I hope he believed you or you spiked a diamond. How does he see you?

I agree with you because of stack sizes. But it's close.

Hero: "if villain is competent, he will be able to fold a smaller flush/set"

Really?

I seriously doubt whether a competent or incompetent V would fold a set or a straight or even a small flush (which I think he'd jam ott). V's range/line suggest he's ahead. He's raised pre-flop, c-betted and led turn with something other than napkins presumably.

And V is getting ~1.8:1 to call H's turn xr (as V has 295 behind here if I'm adding correctly) effective jam, so V may like his chances.

That said, jamming is high variance but has more EV than calling. I think H has maybe 20-25% FE against V range (targeting JJ/KQs - 9 combinations) of (AA-TT, KQs/KJs, AK/AQ/AJ/ATs) and maybe 27% actual equity against this range. And H is never getting paid for his NF if he hits it so the hand is mostly over ott.

I'd rather try this move against a deeper V who would feel less pot committed and where my FE was likely higher.. But that's what makes a horse race. AP I think V will find a sigh call.

Spanish moon - agree completely that V's stack size and turn bet sizing really limit our options and the expected outcome from V post H's shove.

According to whom.....?

A straightforward guy is going to play straightforward on this turn.

Trying to get low-stakes players to fold sets/flushes is pretty optimistic and should most definitely not be your default play, no matter what your hand is.

Fold pre both times. Calling the 7.5 iso-raise OOP is much worse than the initial limp. If you want to play it, at least come in for a raise. But it doesn't seem like your fundamentals warrant that this'll be at least a BE open, not trying to be mean

Turn is a call.

Fold pre. His raising range crushed KTo and we will be OOP.

You can bluff here if you want but he has a lot of strong hands on this board and people don’t like folding. The good news is we have 30% equity against AQ. I did a quick breakdown so I’m sorry if I got the numbers wrong but it looks like we need V to fold about 30% of the time for our shove to be break even. Then again, call is going to be +EV so we need or shove to be better than break even.

V also shouldn’t be folding flushes on the turn unless he thinks you are a nit and is trying to exploit you. Even his sets should be calling against a strong opponent.

Fold pf twice. A competent villain in not going to fold a set/smaller flush as played. If he was over-worried about the flush draw on the flop, he would have checked the turn.

0% chance V is folding a flush herem. you'd have to have limp called KJdd OR K9dd preflop first into the pot as in the LJ...unlikely you're limping those there.

If you're gonna bluff in this hand, at these stack sizes then i think it's best to flat turn and shove river. I'd expect all straights and flushes to call, most of the sets probably depending on the river.

never getting paid for NF if he hits it so the hand is mostly over ott.

[QUOTE=twitcherroo;54828782]I like the concept, but I think the stack sizes make this a little awkward.
+1

he ended up having a Q 9.


We spiked a diamond on the river

Bad play gets rewarded haha

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