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Bad river jam? Bad river jam?

06-19-2017 , 12:16 PM
Short handed home game, 1/2. Hero and villain have extensive history, both are TAG. He's more conservative/nitty, I'm more loose.

Heads Up, BB raises 5x (400bb). I call with 54s (200bb)

Flop comes J76 with two hearts. Hero checks, villain bets 15bb. Hero raises to 45bb. I want to get a fold here, obv, but hero reraises to 75bb. I think this is where I go wrong in the hand, and I call. I wanted to see more streets but calling here commits me to the hand with a marginal holding, since I'm pretty confident he has Jx.

The turn is another 7, opening a back door flush draw. My range from villain's perspective would include some 7's, but I would typically slowplay a set here. I check, intending to x/r, but villain checks behind.

River is a 10H and hero jams. Bad? I'm betting 120bb into a 160bb pot.
Bad river jam? Quote
06-19-2017 , 09:46 PM
Flop is sort of marginal but you have roughly direct odds to draw and there should be some implied odds as well, so it seems like a call. You're not committed to the hand at all.

The thing about the river... I mean I don't know how this guy plays, but a "nitty/conservative" player reraising on the flop, I'd be worried about him having stronger than Jx. The check behind on the turn could be pot control, but that's a bit incongruous with reraising flop. It could also be to let your drawing hands catch up because he has a boat, he could have 66, 77, 76s or even JJ here.

So whether the river shove is good depends heavily on how we range him for the flop reraise. If he really just has Jx a lot then the shove will be good, but I tend to range him stronger and don't like the shove.
Bad river jam? Quote
06-19-2017 , 10:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
Flop is sort of marginal but you have roughly direct odds to draw and there should be some implied odds as well, so it seems like a call. You're not committed to the hand at all.

The thing about the river... I mean I don't know how this guy plays, but a "nitty/conservative" player reraising on the flop, I'd be worried about him having stronger than Jx. The check behind on the turn could be pot control, but that's a bit incongruous with reraising flop. It could also be to let your drawing hands catch up because he has a boat, he could have 66, 77, 76s or even JJ here.

So whether the river shove is good depends heavily on how we range him for the flop reraise. If he really just has Jx a lot then the shove will be good, but I tend to range him stronger and don't like the shove.
FWIW, I did range him correctly at Jx. Nothing wrong with your analysis of his range, I've just played a very long time with him. I thought 2p was possible, so J7 was the risk I took on the shove but I discounted it heavily because he is more likely to slowplay top two on the flop than a minraise.

He did make the call, which I think was questionable since he was ranging me at Jx or a set. Jx only chops if we both play the T, and I have plenty of flush and 7x hands in my range. He ran incredibly hot that night, so maybe he had a God complex or something.

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Bad river jam? Quote
06-20-2017 , 09:40 AM
I agree with where you say fold on flop. If you had position maybe. I hate river jam as it looks like you're repping what he likely has.

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