Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
Flop is sort of marginal but you have roughly direct odds to draw and there should be some implied odds as well, so it seems like a call. You're not committed to the hand at all.
The thing about the river... I mean I don't know how this guy plays, but a "nitty/conservative" player reraising on the flop, I'd be worried about him having stronger than Jx. The check behind on the turn could be pot control, but that's a bit incongruous with reraising flop. It could also be to let your drawing hands catch up because he has a boat, he could have 66, 77, 76s or even JJ here.
So whether the river shove is good depends heavily on how we range him for the flop reraise. If he really just has Jx a lot then the shove will be good, but I tend to range him stronger and don't like the shove.
FWIW, I did range him correctly at Jx. Nothing wrong with your analysis of his range, I've just played a very long time with him. I thought 2p was possible, so J7 was the risk I took on the shove but I discounted it heavily because he is more likely to slowplay top two on the flop than a minraise.
He did make the call, which I think was questionable since he was ranging me at Jx or a set. Jx only chops if we both play the T, and I have plenty of flush and 7x hands in my range. He ran incredibly hot that night, so maybe he had a God complex or something.
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