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Old 12-25-2012, 04:44 PM   #1
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Assume flush and let go trips?

This has been bothering a lot. Villain is a regular and have been playing aggressively, with a few folds into big pots at the rivers.


Hero: (BB) limp with 8d9d
Villain : (4th seat) bet 13
Hero: Calls

Flop 9x 9s 5s
Hero: Bet 30
Villain:call

Turn As

Hero: bet 40
Villain: All in 100

I have 150 left and can cover. call or fold? Assume villain has a flush?
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Old 12-25-2012, 05:21 PM   #2
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Re: Assume flush and let go trips?

Fold Preflop

We have to call 60 to win 226. It's not even close, snap call.
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Old 12-25-2012, 05:34 PM   #3
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Re: Assume flush and let go trips?

Too little information to provide an accurate read or a useful discussion.

You're pretty much relying on the simply fact that it is only $60 to win $226, or roughly 4:1 odds, meaning you just need to win 1 out of 5 times, or 20% of times to break even.

Plus if villain does indeed have flush, you have 10 outs to beat him, needing only 3.4:1 odds.

FYI, it's an easy fold preflop.
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Old 12-25-2012, 05:34 PM   #4
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Call always. Betting and then folding here would be terribad.
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Old 12-25-2012, 08:45 PM   #5
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Re: Assume flush and let go trips?

Yeah, call for the reasons others have already stated.
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Old 12-25-2012, 08:50 PM   #6
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Re: Assume flush and let go trips?

How do you limp from the bb before 4th to act bets?
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Old 12-25-2012, 09:01 PM   #7
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Re: Assume flush and let go trips?

Yeah call here. Villain was so shortstacked he could have so many aces in his range.
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Old 12-25-2012, 11:00 PM   #8
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Re: Assume flush and let go trips?

Call due to the odds.

When you make a thread, word it differently than you did here. Saying, twice, "assume he has a flush?" and mentioning that it'd been "bothering you a lot" makes the result fairly obvious - that you called, he had a flush, and you didn't catch up.
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Old 12-25-2012, 11:04 PM   #9
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Re: Assume flush and let go trips?

To continue beating a dead horse, fold pre, flop was good (rarely ever trying to checkraise here unless you know he cbets 100%), and snap it off at the end.
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Old 12-26-2012, 12:10 AM   #10
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Re: Assume flush and let go trips?

also confused how you limp before his action? did btn straddle?

fold pre. V only has ~145 behind. you have a terrible hand to play oop under these conditions.

AP call and lose to a flush
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Old 12-26-2012, 12:31 AM   #11
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Re: Assume flush and let go trips?

I'll toss out another idea, he may have a big Ax that got sticky on the flop. A9, K9 and T9 areas single as well, although unlikely given that you also have a 9.

Heads up like this you should fold pre. If there were a half dozen callers then you'd be in a much different situation and calling wouldnt be awful.

But once you've hit that flop as hard as you have, AND at it ... You pretty much have to call.
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Old 12-26-2012, 02:29 AM   #12
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Re: Assume flush and let go trips?

Depending on his opening range, he'll probably have fewer flushes in his range than if the turn was a 2 since a ton of his opening should be Ax. You can't ever fold now anyway though. He can have JJ-KK with spades, AK float, flushes, trips, AA full, maybe A5ss, but it's pretty irrelevant constructing a range when we have great odds and trips. Just level 1 spot it and shrug call.
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Old 12-26-2012, 02:44 AM   #13
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Re: Assume flush and let go trips?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dradow View Post
This has been bothering a lot. Villain is a regular and have been playing aggressively, with a few folds into big pots at the rivers.


Hero: (BB) limp with 8d9d
Villain : (4th seat) bet 13
Hero: Calls
This is where the mistake was made.

When we play and an aggro villain raises preflop and action gets to us, our plan has to be more than to just call and hope to flop gin.

Against an aggro villain who is around 65bb calling with 98dd is just -EV. This aggro villain is going to c-bet nearly 100% of the time and when we have a hand like 98dd we are not going to like 80% of flops we encounter...

Now, if 5 players called and action got to us then you can make a case for calling. But as you describe the action, it folded around to you and now you are heads up.

Think this through... How is calling a raise with a marginal hand Out of Position vs an Aggro opponent who is 65bb deep profitable???

It isn't. Fold preflop.

as played, super easy sigh-shrug-roll eyes-call...
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Old 12-26-2012, 05:42 AM   #14
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Re: Assume flush and let go trips?

why are we assuming a flush and never once considering AA? if he has AA, he's praying you have a 9 and he got lucky and will now stack you.
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Old 12-26-2012, 08:39 AM   #15
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Re: Assume flush and let go trips?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ibelieveinkolb View Post
why are we assuming a flush and never once considering AA? if he has AA, he's praying you have a 9 and he got lucky and will now stack you.
does it really matter?
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