private 2/5 game, 200min600max, very loose/passive table

Hero ($550): 19 years old, hat, headphones. In the game for 900, reasonably active image, somewhere between tag and lag. Not doing much limping and have initiative in most pots I'm involved in.

Villain (covers): mid-20s, white, not particularly good/tough, defends his blinds too much and flats pre too often. Doesn't seem to attack multi-way pots without reasonably strong holdings but don't have a lot of history with him as we've only been playing together for a couple of hours.

Recent history: only a few hands prior villain doubled hero up. Villain opened from MP, hero defended from blinds multi-way with A4ss, 556ss flop checked through, hero led $50 on 3d turn, villain raised to $125, hero jammed ~$250 and villain snap called with QQ, river 3s for frushie.

1 limp from habitual limp/caller, hero opens AQ from EP/MP to $20 (15-25 standard sizing at this table). 3 calls including villain in SB, and limper calls.

Flop ($102): A54

villain checks, limper checks, hero fires $75, two folds, villain makes it $180, limper folds,

Hero?

I really don't think I'm behind here all the time. His sizing was awfully small and it seems like if it was a value raise he'd make it more. Table was loose/passive and villain should probably know I wouldn't be cbetting that flop with air, but maybe he doesn't know that. Our options:

-Folding- seems too weak given that we have top pair and our villain could very well be making a move on a reasonably dry board. If he has pegged me as the type to fold AT-AK to a c/r on this board, he can exploit the **** out of me because I have 2p/sets so rarely in this spot.
-MR/Folding- Don't hate it but we might be lighting money on fire. If we minraise to $280, and villain jams for an extra $250, should/could we fold? How often is he just folding to this minraise?
-Jamming- allows villain to just play perfectly against us on a dry board on which he'll make few mistakes
-Calling- also okay, but we have to be prepared to call off our stack on virtually every turn card.

If I had more reads/info, I'd give them to you. How do you approach spots like this vs villains with which you have very limited history?

Interesting. did you notice if he seemed tilted from the previous hand when you stacked him with your frush?

isn't the pot 80 otf with 3 callers? Regardless, you have an SPR of slightly over 5 otf, so it is entirely V dependent if you think they would get it all in with worse here. The board is relatively drawless save for a few combos of straight draws, so if there is any chance that V is making a move with a weaker A, OR AIR, then the best option would be to flat and be prepared to call off the rest of your stack.

don't consider folding as a bad option simply because you think you will be expolitable. First off, he won't know what you are folding. for all he knows you are folindg JJs, and he will very rarely have the opportunity to exploit your willingness to fold tp otf. Most live players rarely adgust and try to exploit their opponents. Unless he gives you a reason to think you are being exploitid, you shouldn't worry about this all that much.

agree that MR/folding is bad for the reasons you mention, and jamming is the worst option. I think when all is said and done i'd fold here.

Do you think V is the type that would flat AK from the SB here?

When I don't have any reads, I try to use stereotypes and betting patterns to put V on a hand. A check/raise on this board is normally indicative of a top pair/good kicker type hand.

I think there is a good chance V shows up with AK/AJ here.

However, do you think V is tilting a bit here? The recent history may lean this more towards a call. In a normal situation, I think it may be a fold. But there is a good chance V is trying to teach you a lesson, esp. with your image of a young "punk".

I also think you are giving V too much credit here of thinking about your range. There are very few players at these stakes who are level 3 thinkers. Also like fogodchao said, you can play explotiably at these levels because no one is ever going to exploit you.

Based on your limited reads / history, this V doesn’t sound like the type to overvalue AJ/AT in this spot. I also discount AK because I think he often 3bets PF here. 44, 55, A4, and A5 are all in his range. I also think 23s is in his range which IMO is one of the most overrated hands in NLHE (everyone overrates its deceptiveness). As far as hands you beat, maybe he does this with A3, A2, 43, and occasionally 67s. I discount air here because I think he should read you for an ace. AQ is possible for a tie.

So, I honestly think folding is the best option here. Sure, you will get bluffed/semibluffed occasionally, but I think his range consists of more hands that beat you here. I think your concern about folding is more of a concern about being weak than about being exploitable. I’ve been there and made some bad call downs before. If you are worried about appearing weak, I would just mutter something about how QQ always flops an ace or JTs never gets there.

My second choice would be to call and reevaluate OTT. If the turn comes a 2,3, or 8 and he still leads big into you, then I think it’s a definite fold. An ace OTT and you are probably committed. All other cards will require you to read his betsizing and any tells. It’s a marginal spot, so that’s why I prefer folding on the flop.

Great feedback so far tyvm, in hindsight he may have just said to himself "this kid doesn't have the ace" and is just making a play, but it's hard to call off 110bbs just based on us deciding he thinks we're FOS. I don't think he's ever not betting the turn so we almost never get to showdown IMO. This isn't a terrific spot for him to do this with complete air, so perhaps the combination of
1) his live outs, and
2) the non-negligible chance he actually does have 44/55/A4s
Make this a sigh fold. Since I don't have a comfortable read on him I'm trying to find a way to analyze this from a math/combinatorial/range point of view rather than a gameflow/tells point of view.

Additionally, I think MR/folding has some merit vs calm thinking players but based on history I wouldn't put him in that category. MR looks so much like I'm just setting up a turn jam that he should not really ever be continuing without 2p+. But again, perhaps he isn't thinking about that.

I agree with all that, but I think the fact that you just doubled up of off him with a draw could have him steaming a bit. When players are tilting, they are going to do stupid things. I think this is a situation where you could use more game-flow in your decision making than the math/logical stuff.

My initial reaction when you said it was a loose-passive game was that we could wait for better spots. But I am realizing more and more that that line of thinking is wrong. As long as we are not prone to tilt and have more BI in our pocket, we need to make this call if it is profitable.

Bet less post flop when checked to u... but as played fold on the flop

why?

Given all the meta-game I would call flop and fold turn to a reasonable bet. Some people at these stakes could do this with AJ/AT to 'see where they are at.' Sometimes it could be pair+gutshot, sometimes OESD. I feel that against a guy like this it's fairly safe to then fold non-Q turns, as his bluffing continuing frequency is going to be too low to commit. I am not at my computer, but I bet if you stove flop vs. a reasonable range it's a clear call, and if you then assume he shoves 2pr+ ott 100% of the time but shoves his semi bluffs say 1/3rd of the time it becomes a clear fold. This would also let you solve for how often does he need to continue with his bluffs in order to make calling turn correct.