Good question Kelvis. I think we can rule out AA, KK, QQ, AKs, AK as he would have Bet/Raised preflop. I think the absolute top of his Calling range is AQ and JJ. Going down the list with PP's, JJ, 1010, 99, 88 I think are are logical hands he could have. I'm struggling to think about whether he would call with 77 or below, as he does not have any money in the pot even though he does have button position. I do think he would call with some suited connectors 67s - QJs are all in play, and I'll add in AJs as well.
So I guess his calling range preflop would 88 - JJ, AJs, AQs, and suited connectors from 67 through QJ.
On the flop with my relatively small bet in compared to the size of the pot, I think all PP 88 - JJ are calling and 67s is calling as well. 78s & 89s are probably going to call with the various straight draw. 78dd and probably 89dd is raising this flop bet by me, so I think we can rule that out for his hand. 910
and J10
are in his range to call with and potentially mix in a raise as well. Club and heart suited Ace's are most likely going to fold, I could see him floating with AQss or AJss with 2 overs and backdoor flush draw.
His in position flop calling range would include: 88 - JJ, 78s, 89s, 67s, AJ
, AQ
, 910
and J10
On the turn with the Jack of Diamonds coming and completing the flush I checked and he bet.
Obviously eliminates J10
I think he would bet AJ
thinking his top pair could be good and doesn't want to see a 4 card flush come. I think he would take a stab also with AQ
since he has little to no equity at this point. 88 - 1010 is probably checking back with the over card on board, especially if they have a diamond in their hand, so we can probably rule out those 3 hands. JJ is betting for sure with top set. 67s is probably checking back, so we can rule out that hand. 78s & 89s I think he is stabbing with to see if he can get an Ace high type of hand to fold. 910
is betting for sure with a flush.
His turn range after the bet includes: AQ
, AJ
, JJ, 78s, and 89s, 910
When the river comes completing the 4 card flush AND pairing the board I checked.
910
is for sure a check back here with 4 card flush coming, AJ
is probably checking back as well since he has some showdown equity. Let's rule those hands out. JJ is obviously betting with top boat, I do think he would bet again with AQ
if that's what he had on the turn. 78s and 89s I think are on the fence. If he bet those hands on the turn, I think about half the time he shuts down and gives up and the other half he continues to fire another bullet.
river hand range after bet: JJ, AQ
, Maybe 78s / 89s...
Does this range look right to you by the street? Do you think I should include more lower PP's into his range PF? Also, this was really helpful typing this out and making me think, I appreciate the question.