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AK in tenuous spot AK in tenuous spot

07-25-2017 , 11:22 AM
NL 1/2 NWI
Hero in cutoff with 250.
Villain is 55 yo female who drinks a lot. She laughs a lot. She's tight but not a nit I'd say. She's got about 90 in front of her.
2 limpers in pot when it gets to hero in cutoff who makes it 15 with AK
Villain in small blind calls the 15. The two limpers then fold.
Pot is 36.
Flop J103
Hero continuation bets 25.
Villain shoves for 75 dollars into a 61 dollar pot.
Hero...???
AK in tenuous spot Quote
07-25-2017 , 12:25 PM
It's $50? Just call it off. You have outs and she "could" be drawing. If you weren't planning to call, don't bet.
AK in tenuous spot Quote
07-25-2017 , 12:28 PM
a lot of times if they don't hit they'll fold to a continuation bet, the move surprised me
AK in tenuous spot Quote
07-25-2017 , 12:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicagodude
a lot of times if they don't hit they'll fold to a continuation bet, the move surprised me
She's folding worse and raising with better (or a very good draw -- I'm a ~50 yr old white woman who drinks and laughs a lot, perceived as tight but not nitty, so I know!).
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07-25-2017 , 12:34 PM
she raised with worse i was a 55 to 45 favorite but i think QQ was a real possibility there
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07-25-2017 , 12:35 PM
She raised with worse than AK and no draw? I hope you called.
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07-25-2017 , 12:38 PM
AQ of hearts i folded but she showed
AK in tenuous spot Quote
07-25-2017 , 01:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicagodude
she raised with worse i was a 55 to 45 favorite but i think QQ was a real possibility there
why do you think QQ was a real possibility? Yes, it's in her range, but narrowing and convincing yourself she has one hand combo usually gets you in trouble.

Basically if you think she's ultra tight, we're probably 25% vs that range (and getting not even 2 to 1) but if she was down to her last chips, she can be doing that with 100% of her range, whether she hits or misses the flop.
AK in tenuous spot Quote
07-25-2017 , 03:06 PM
This literally might be the worst possible flop for you to cbet in this spot. What hands were you expecting her to fold?
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07-25-2017 , 09:30 PM
Cbet is way too big given stacks, $15 would set up a psb ott and gives you a cheaper price to "bluff" with ak which could easily still be the best hand. Alternatively can X/shove flop

as played probably calling it off
AK in tenuous spot Quote
07-26-2017 , 01:11 AM
Heads up against a villain with < 50BB I'm just trying to make a hand that can stack off vs. a dominated range. Our draw is weak and you can't threaten stacks past the turn.
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07-26-2017 , 01:22 AM
The flop is not good for your hand. Any JTo or JTs flop gets connected with many many calling Broadways hands. It will cost you lots of money to go deep in the hand. Your two overs are almost worthless because even if you turn one like a K or A you can be against a str8 or a str8+flush draw or GS+flush draw and it's not gonna be cheap. I don't like JT flops if I don't get connected with the board + redraws. Bad flop when you miss.

The JTs flops are a classic. Everybody understand what JT flop is. ACTION!
Just sit and relax and see for yourself what's going on on JT flops. 3+ villains try to outdraw each other and one-pair hand is never good. TP is worthless. The T9s almost the same. All Broadways fit like hand-in-glove. Even AA could be even against a JT vs. a GS+FD

Last edited by outdonked; 07-26-2017 at 01:38 AM.
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