Wednesday night, 1/3, 9 handed

A very loose table, though not that passive. A lot of multiway hands and huge preflop pots. A fair amount of betting and calling, with big pots that go to showdown that are composed of fairly mediocre made hands, and not much bluffing. Typically a 10x raise may still go multiway.

Hero ($450) has As Kd in the small blind.
Villain A ($1100, 60yo WM, 40/20 LAG) raises to $15 UTG.
Villain B ($1000, 40yo WM, 40/20 LAG) calls in UTG+1.
Folded to Hero, who reraises to $55.
Villain A calls and Villain B folds.
Flop ($113): 7d 4c 2h

Villain A has a very low fold to 3-bet percentage. He will probably cold-call a 3-bet preflop with AT+, KQ+, K9s+, A8s+, 44+. This is a common feature on this table.

Hero c-bets $60 into this flop and Villain A calls.

Turn ($233): 9s

What do you do?

What sort of hands do you think that he is going to call your flop bet with?

It's all well and good for him to call the 3bet light, but is he calling the flop with AT+? KJ+?
If he isn't, this is an easy check/fold.

If he is, then we need to know more about how he will play the turn with these hands.

Generally anything other than a check/fold (regardless of what you tell us) is going to be a bit spewy.

I think that he will fold his complete misses, and continue with any pocket pair. I reckon he's leaning towards folding A2s or A4s unless he has a flush draw.
Absolutely I think I am behind, but if I were to try to take down the pot, I'm basically committing my stack with ace-high.

I'd 3bet to $75. It gives poor odds to setminers, plus it has a better chance of taking down things now. I'm not sure what AK makes on average, but I'm guessing it's nowhere close to the $30 that is already in the pot, plus we'll be OOP postflop, so taking this down now isn't a bad result. Another option, which is admittedly a lot weaker, is to just flat and keep in dominated Ax/Kx hands, and then make some money off those weaker Ax/Kx hands postflop if we hit (and quietly fold if we miss).

I don't think there is any reason to bet so much on this dry flop. I'd just go like $40-$45 and see if that gets it done. No one is folding a pair to one barrel, so make that barrel as cheap as possible to find out, imo.

I probably give up on the turn. Can't rep the turn card at all, and it's also possible we're drawing dead at this point.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Just general feedback, but in all of your posts you have good info on how Vs play pre-flop, and none about how they play post-flop. The latter is much more important than the former here.

3-bet pre is good, I'd go a bit bigger, like $70 or so. My default would be $60 (3*$15 + $15 for the caller), and I go slightly bigger because we're out of position, the table is sticky and I'm super happy to take down the pot right here with AK.

Flop c-bet is fine, but your goal here is to get him to fold random overcards that have equity and pairs lower than 7.

Once he calls your flop bet, I'm ranging him on 22, 44, 77, 7x, 56 and 53 (some of these would obviously fold pre) and pocket pairs between 88-JJ. I don't think you're deep enough to get him off any of his made hands here, so I check/fold, and hope it goes check/check and I get a chance to bink on the river. Given the flop c-bet he should generally have let go of anything that missed the flop.

yea the villain is deep enoug to not respect your 3! imo.

cbet is fine but i think if we go for delayed cbet here we could play hand out same while saving a bet.

if we check upfront it leaves our ranged somewhat uncapped still to villain. unless hes a sicko maniac, he wont try to fold what could be an overpair.

think we go through flop and fire turn, might get more folds as well.

I agree about making it bigger preflop because you are OOP. I'd make it a pot-sized raise of $75.

As played, cbet & sizing is ok in a vacuum. It depends on how sticky they are post, but I guess you only need to succeed 1/3 for it to be profitable?

Turn - check/fold

Honestly, against players like this I'm often just giving up instantly on that flop, and just hoping it checks through to river or I hit my ace/king. Especially given your sizing pre. I don't think you need to cbet AK 100% to make it profitable to 3bet. Yeah sometimes you'll be bluffed holding the best hand, but you'll make up for that on better flops as well as when you have JJ+ and can expect to get called multiple times.

Of op gives a bit more info on post-flop tendancies I could make a better judgement, but i'm not convinced this is a mandatory 3! From the sb
...if we know it's going multiway to the flop then I'd rather keep the pre-flop pot smaller and flat....
As played, check folding this turn I think, it would pretty gung ho for villan to float us in a 3! Pot