Effective stacks $550. My image is mostly Tag(otoh, many people were paying close attention to the table next to us, Kenny Tran was playing 2-5NL), I've won a few small pots in the 45 minutes since being there. Nothing really exciting has happened so far. Villian seems ok. I've seen him make the $15 pre flop raises with small/mid pocket pairs.

Villian in UTG+1 raises to $15

I'm to his immediate left, and see AA

I reraise to $45, villian makes the call.

flop comes: 568

I bet out $75 he CR to $200. FWIW, I've seen him play a set exactly like this earlier. What's your play here?

fold

ez fold

Shove and be happy. This doesn't look like a set, more like an overpair or a flush draw.

88 is pretty much the only hand you're worried about since 55/66 are very likely to muck to your 3-bet.

If he's gonna play setmine with 88, i see no reason why he(nor most players) would pitch 55 or 66.. but duly noted

Online this is a trivial fold. Live it's a lot closer, since if villain is capable (read: bad enough) to c/r a hand like 99, 1010, or 44 for 'information' then if you shove he'll probably go "Ugh, so gross. Ace king of spades? All right I call". Plus he might even have something like KK and was worried a 4bet from EP pre would look soso strong and thus chose to play it this way.

That's all purely speculative though, so without reads I'll probably just fold. With the tiniest bit of history or observation that lets me narrow villain's range here though it leans way more towards a shove, although I'd still expect him to shout "CALL!" a decent percentage of the time.

ez shove. The only villain i would fold against would be the nit of nits who usually donks overpairs into PFR.

Otherwise shove.


Reason: Even if we only include ONE combo of AQss and only TWO overpairs TT JJ
and the rest nut sets, we are 54% favorite vs range.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.750% 53.42% 01.33% 11634 290.50 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 45.250% 43.92% 01.33% 9565 290.50 { JJ-TT, 88, 66-55, AsQs }

Folding would be criminal unless its a nit who wont raise ANYTHING but sets here.

you're right ANL, I folded.. he showed A4s

With no redraw I like checking the flop and waiting for a brick turn to bet. But I am pretty sure I am in the minority.

Only problem with that line of thought is that a brick turn comes off only a little more than half the time. And then he might choose to bet with a vulnerable hand to protect it when a wet turn card comes and end up bluffing you off your aces.

Does this hand change your perception of the villain?

Would he reraise pf with 99-kk? Would he play his set exactly the same as last time?Highly doubt he flopped a straight, sets are possible but not likely given preflop action.Two pair would be a lowblow but very unlikely. Overcards with flush draws or 99-kk are prbly the biggest possibilty which you can get it in happily. Id get it in here expecting to be ahead 60-70% of the time.

easy fold.


edit: that was a really good raise by the villain if he knew you were capable of folding the overpair. make note of that for the future.

I was going to say fold until i realised this is a 3bet pot, i would shove flop and be happy about hit, its hard to make a set

there are villains that this could be correct with. I doubt here is a good case. Keep in mind that a non brick will hit a huge amt of time and kill your action from most hands villain has that would have called or overplayed on the flop.
TT would be an example.

easy ship

if you have TT then maybe you have a decision

i would shove. its basically a zero sum situation (if ur beat).

edit: people at live LS dont fold aces heads up on unpaired none flush flops. at least that im aware of. do they?

edit: oh wait. yes they do. u do. nvm.

This. Since he only raised to 3x pre, I would 3bet bigger too.

that's probably a good idea.. His bet sizing from what I saw, indicated that he had a speculative hand, not a premium hand. so I didn't think he had TT-KK, AKs-AJs.. Maybe this is putting to much weight into his pF bet sizing, but from what I often see, not only from this villain, in live play is people bump it up $20-$25 with the premiums and ratchet it down with Ace-suited, SC, and mid to small pocket pairs.

fold