BB (Hero): $450
MP (Villain1): $265
Button (Villain2): $100

Lots of limping going on (pre flop aggression usually means A10+ or pocket pair), no hyper aggressive player, one or two decent player and rest of the players are playing ABC poker post flop. Hero has not been going out of li

Action to me with six of the players already limped into the pot, Hero raises it to $22, MP Calls, Button Calls.

Flop ($74): K 7 2 (rainbow)

Hero bets $43, Villain1 raises to $120, Villain2 calls and all in for $78. Hero???

Villain1 joined the table few hands earlier, no read on him (MAWG).
Read on villain2 is, he must have some sort KQ/KJ/K10.

What about maybe a set of sevens?


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I don't really care what V2 has. More about what V1 has. What are his tendencies? Does he overplay hands postflop? Raising to $120 even in a somewhat big pot for 1/2 going into the flop is a sign of strength at 1/2. On the other hand, I highly doubt he wouldn't slowplay anything beating you on literally the driest possible flop especially with V2 behind him. It's close but I probably call and hope he's overplaying KQ or raising to see where he's at which is typical live logic.

Is Vil 2 going to flat a pocket pair for 1/5 of his stack preflop?

Edit:

I agree with River Rat here, I'm more concerned about V1 here.

Get it in. Can't win em all.

Who cares what V2 has. He has 39 bb behind going into the flop he can have anything. And yes he can it's 1/2. People put in over a quarter of their stack if not more trying to set mine when facing a 3 bet.

I'm not disagreeing with you. V1 is the only concern here.

I'm just saying that V2 doesn't really have set all that often imo.

Don't have a read on the V1. He just joined 3/4 hands earlier. We are actually not worried about V2, it was almost certain that the V2 had a K and moreover he has only 39 BB. What could V1 possibly have? Limped pre, called a raise of 11BB, raised to 60BB (half of his remaining stack) facing a c-bet of 21.5BB and also with a short stack still to act.

What does everyone think would be a reasonable hand range for Villian 1 here? If I assume they have KK, 77, or 22 (for trips); and AK or KQ (for top pair) then Hero hand equity would be approx. 60%. If I assume a tighter range of let's say KK, 77, 22, or KQ then Hero hand equity would be approx. 50%.

Let's assume Hero shoves all in on the flop. Pot size would be $638 ($74 pre-flop + $78 for Villian 2 all-in + $243 if Hero puts Villian 2 all-in + $243 for Hero's bet to put Villian 2 all-in). Therefore, pot equity would be $383 ($638 x 60%) assuming the 60% scenario above, or $319 ($638 x 50%) assuming the 50% scenario above. So the way I see it is Hero only needs to put in $243 on the turn to put Villian 1 all-in in order to win $319 to $383 depending on the scenario. Seems like a positive EV move here. In fact the break-even on this is 38% ($243/$638) so it seems very reasonable to me that Hero should be able to beat Villian's range by more than 38% here.

Please let me know everyone's thoughts on this and whether my analysis above is flawed in anyway. Thanks