Villain 1- super bad passive station, covers the table

Villain 2- never played with him before seems semi competent, $200

Hero- has loose image and generally does not get credit for having hands, $330

OTTH

Villain 1 straddles UTG for $5, villain 2 calls, hero opens on the button to 20 with AhAc, both villains call

Flop ($63) KsQc8d

Checks to Hero who bets $30, villain 1 calls, villain 2 folds

Turn ($123) Tc

Villain 1 checks, Hero bets $50, Villain 1 calls

River ($223) Ah

Villain 1 checks, Hero?

I definitely like a check back here. He's got a lot more combos of KJ, OJ, JT, than KQ or OT and it sucks getting raised.

Tempting to go for thin value here. I'm opting for the "nit check back".

While your hand did improve, it's not very strong given the board. I don't think you're getting called by worse often enough. I feel like if villain were on some kind of have you could get value from, we'd have heard from him by now (2p+). If he missed the flush, he'll fold to a river bet.

If you bet and villain jams, I can't see how you'd call. That's how I'd normally make the decision. If I'm okay with calling off a stack on this board, then I'd bet river. In this case I'm not, so it's a check back for me.

I think you could size bigger pre, flop and turn for more value. I think you can get value from a lot of 1p combo draws on the turn. I'm checking back river and I don't think it's particularly nitty to do so. Your hand improved but I think V just has too many Js there for it to be profitable.

I'd opt to bet $75-90ish and be prepared to fold to a raise (especially given V is described as passive). There are many, many hands he could plausibly have that would call and that we are ahead of - Lots of 2Ps and sets. Yes, he could have a jack. But without going through all the combos, I think there are many more combos without a jack. And even a bad passive player is likely to bet river for value with a jack b/c V can't count on us to bet in that spot.

I agree with sizing up pre-flop, especially V1 is passive so why not charge more?

Flop sizing is OK and maybe a little bit larger on the turn

River I think is a clear check back - he has many one pair type of hand with a J in his range that would call, especially given your sizing - so I would check back river and avoid the temptation to go for thin value here

+1 bet fold all day. Villains at 1/2 arent bluff raising rivers enough not to go for thin value here. If he raises you can comfortably fold and not lose any sleep over it. The art of bet folding rivers is like printing money at these stakes.

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Well let's give V like 1/2 combos KQ(so 4.5), as he's unlikely to play top two passively on two streets, even if he's bad. And we can conservatively say that he has all 9 combos of KT, and QT, even though I don't think he's playing those passively at a 100% frequency.
That means we're looking at 22.5 combos of TP we can go for thin value against, and that is a liberal estimate IMO. Then say 3-6 combos of K9 that he might call and you're looking at around 27 combos of hands to go for thin value from.

But he should have all combos of KJ, QJ, JT, so 36 combos.

Assuming he's competent enough to know that a J is the nuts on this board, a 75 dollar bet has an EV of -75 57% of the time and +75 43% of the time.
I'm discounting times he folds because that's the same outcome as check.

So even with a liberal estimate of TP combos and assuming he calls 100% of that range it's still -EV to bet/fold here.

I agree bet/folding is an extremely profitable strat at 1/2 but I think Vs range is too weighted toward Js for a bet/fold to be profitable.

I could be wrong about my range assignment so let me know what you guys think.

Thanks for actually looking at all the combos - I think we should include 88 in his range for sure and possibly some Ax hands like AK and AQ (although obviously less likely since hero has AA). Also K8 and Q8 at something much less than 100% too (suited perhaps), and also JJ.

With those hands, I imagine it's neutral to positive in terms of EV - That said, it's close for sure.

I think your underestimating the amount of hands a passive 1/2 fish could make it to the river and call with. I think he has all the KQ and sure he has some sets at a higher frequency than others. But at the end of the day he could have all the sets here.

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Bet/fold $60. There are a lot of combos that aren't Jx. He probably won't bluff raise. Given villain's description it might be possible to go bigger, but even idiots should know that Jx is the nuts and it's not that hard for either player to have here.

First of all, I'd go more like 25-30 pre with a straddle and one caller already, but maybe I'm nitpicking. As played I'd probably kick it up to 40 on the flop. Lots of KX hands and QX with gutters or back doors will still call.

That being said, the turn and river turn out like **** for us. I probably still lead the turn, but I check back the river.

There are so mant JX combos this guy can have calling only $15 for preflop. Basically every JX from J8+ could be in his range (especially when suited).

safe to b/f on the small side