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A4s vs air on flop A4s vs air on flop

06-19-2014 , 08:33 AM
Hi,

It is an nittish 24 holdem game.(live)
We got full stack, everything else covers.

Preflop we call out of Mp 4 BB - 6 caller

Flop
567s

We got a nutflushdraw and a straightdraw

utg bets 5bb
4caller - we call
Button gets it in with 200BB

There is one caller

Do we have to call here?
How hard are we discounting our outs on a 9 handed table?

ps.
The pusher is a nit, the all in caller more of an gambler.
Therefore the pusher has always a Stright and the other guy twopair, set or flush draw.

regards
A4s vs air on flop Quote
06-19-2014 , 11:06 AM
I assume the BTN shoved and UTG called ? (this is not clear from your hh)

No one can give you an exact answer because this depends only on the villains ranges. The good news is you can easily come up with a good solution yourself (and learn a lot while doing so):



1. google and download 'pokerstove' or another free poker equity calculator.
2. put in ranges for the villains involved and see how much equity your hand has vs. these ranges.
3. compare the calculated equity with the odds you are getting. The formula you need to calculate the required minimum equity for a profitable call is:
(amount you need to call) / (total size of the pot AFTER your call)*


This is a good exercise to do regularly off the table, so you can get a better feeling of when you should call and when you should fold. Make small adjustments to their ranges and see how your equity reacts to that.


cheers



*: make sure to only count effective stacks, so in your case you would need (100 - 4 - 5) / (100 + 100 + 5 + 5 + 5 + 100)
A4s vs air on flop Quote
06-19-2014 , 08:47 PM
Yes, i would use the nash equilibrium concept to find a fold with AA
A4s vs air on flop Quote
06-20-2014 , 03:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sadface42
Yes, i would use the nash equilibrium concept to find a fold with AA
dunno if serious or not, but just in case:

when you do the above exercise you'll be surprised of the difference in equity bw/ a combo-draw and AA against a range that consists mostly of strong made hands and draws.
A4s vs air on flop Quote
06-20-2014 , 08:16 AM
yeah, obviously draws fade better.

In the above case we have at least 25 %, with the money in it is allways an call even against the top of villians range. (My conclusion)

The only difference would make a discounting of our outs to a realistic expectation.
I would discount heavily on a 9 handed game.
A4s vs air on flop Quote
06-20-2014 , 08:45 AM
I stoved one of the the worst scenarios possible:

Flop: 7c6h5c

Hero: Ac4c
Villain1 (Nit): 98s
Villain2 (pusher): 98s, 77-55, 76s, Tc8c

Even in this scenario where one guy has the nut-straight 100% of the time and the other guy only has top 2 pair, sets and almost no FDs, hero has 27% equity.* We need ~29% to call, so all we need is Villain2 to have more than one combo of worse FDs (should be no problem given his description).



Btw: even if V1 tables 98s and V2 tables Tc8c, you still have to call it off. Only possible scenario where you have to fold would be if youd knew for certain that V1 has the nutstraight and V2 a set.



*: AcAd has only 6% btw.
A4s vs air on flop Quote
06-20-2014 , 11:10 AM
pokerstove was invented some years ago
A4s vs air on flop Quote
06-20-2014 , 02:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BonitaMadras
I stoved one of the the worst scenarios possible:

Flop: 7c6h5c

Hero: Ac4c
Villain1 (Nit): 98s
Villain2 (pusher): 98s, 77-55, 76s, Tc8c

Even in this scenario where one guy has the nut-straight 100% of the time and the other guy only has top 2 pair, sets and almost no FDs, hero has 27% equity.* We need ~29% to call, so all we need is Villain2 to have more than one combo of worse FDs (should be no problem given his description).



Btw: even if V1 tables 98s and V2 tables Tc8c, you still have to call it off. Only possible scenario where you have to fold would be if youd knew for certain that V1 has the nutstraight and V2 a set.



*: AcAd has only 6% btw.
you are missing dead outs(discounting outs) and revere implied odds.
We are going to lose on a paired board most of the time ...
Some of our outs are dead therefore ..
could be 2 less outs
A4s vs air on flop Quote
06-20-2014 , 04:34 PM
You are right about dead outs that someone might have folded on the flop.

Reverse implied odds dont apply here though, as we will be allin on the flop. The equity calculator already incorporates the scenarios where you hit your flush but lose to a boat on a paired board.

Either way, the decision can be close if both villains are very tight, but as descrived the presence of the second villain that is willing to gamble makes it a clear call. (In the above scenario i assigned this villain only a single FD, no worse 2 pair than top 2 pair, no pair + straight draw, etc..., so i think your equity will definitely be better than the required 29%.
A4s vs air on flop Quote

      
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