I am playing 300 effective here, very early in session so no image established;
A couple players limp in EP; MP opens to 12 pf; call in front of me and I have A2s OTB; this seems like a good 3! candidate, maybe I should be deeper when 3!'ing this hand? idk if flatting is great here but I flat on the button expecting to go multiway and have decent IO post flop;
Ep calls 12 and we go 4 way to a F: 626 (2 clubs) ; checked to pfr and he bets 25 into (48) ; folded to me and I flat call the 25 thinking a lot of his range missed this flop, I think my hand is good here a decent amount of the time; maybe I could raise this flop and rep 6x? having a player behind made me want to be cautious here;
EP calls the 25 as well; he has a lot of PP's and FD's here, should be raising his 6X a decent amount so I discount those
Turn: 4os (123)
Ep checks and MP checks; hero?
I think MP has given up here, I bet 75 to apply pressure on MP's range and deny equity to EP's over cards
EP can easily be trapping with 6x once you get to the turn. PF raiser still has overpairs in his range that should be checking in this spot 100% of the time given the action.
If you really though EP and PF raiser had overcards than you don't need to bet as much. $35 would fold them both out. Having an A blocks their potential overcard combos though.
Checking to get to showdown and to catch up versus an overpair is probably the best play.
Its not a horrible bluff attempt but I don't think it gets through enough against 1/2 pea brains.
I don't think this gets through here that often either, I was planning on shoving a lot of rivers depending on the action, I thought with a wet board and 2 other players involved he would raise a 6 on the flop sometimes and if not he should be protecting his hand on the turn a decent amount by leading
flatting pre is prob -ev , you can flat some mid pairs. I would squeeze ATs+,TT+,KQs,AK and flat 99-77. folding everything else
though it may not seem obvious, you need incrementally stronger hands the more opp you face postflop
fold flop, esp with ppl left to act
absolutely do not bet turn and the sizing is very very bad
even hu with the pfr you don't have much of a reason to bet. denying equity is not as important if one of his likely outs is one of your 2p outs. either way, if you really need to bet, you go 1/3p max
I've done a lot of preflop work with solvers and databases with huge sample sizes
trust me when I say flatting baby AXs and small pairs is -ev
also, the deeper you are, say 200bb+, the worse your small pairs perform, because sets over sets are a thing and because nobody stacks off with overpairs with huge sprs
the deeper you are, the more you want to favor hands with nut potential
maybe weak but I check this back. I'm not trying to convince people in 1/2 of too much unless I have a strong image established later in the game. I'd try to see if I can catch an Ace or another 2 on the river. Theres not too much of a reason to build a big pot with a pair of 2's and no real outs.
Also, preflop, I'm probably folding unless I think 4-5 other players are going to the flop. Only Value A2s has in a raised pot is for flush draws, 2 pairs, trips etc. 3betting preflop is fine if you have a good idea of your opponents opening range and post flop tendencies, which you dont.
MP calls the 75, the River is an Aos; he checks to me;
do I go for value here? pot is pretty big(273) so shoving seems stupid as I would likely only get called by better, maybe a tiny bet here gets value from his pp's
+1 for fold pre. 3 betting this at 1/2 (especially at this stack depth) is just fancy play syndrome. I'd much rather raise this hand from LP over a bunch of limpers than call a raise.
As played folding on the flop. PFR still has all over pairs in his range. Trying to rep a 6 is again FPS.
