Only been at the table for 320 minutes, have not played a pot yet. The stacks at this table are all deep, ranging from $500-$1200. I bought in for $200 and villain has $1000. He has raised or reraised 80% of hands and just won a big pot when he 3bet pre with Ac8c and somehow got the pot to $500 when he hit runners for the nut flush vs a set. He bet and called a big raise on the flop with air before getting the draw OTT.

Villain is sb ($1k)
Hero is MP ($200)

Folds to hero, raises to $12 with 9h9d. Folds to sb, raises to $33. Hero calls.

Flop ($68) Jc8c2s

Villain bets $45

Hero?

Hero calls $45, turn 10c. Villain checks, hero?

I almost feel like shipping the flop since i like my hand against his extra wide range, but i also want him to keep the aggression up. I would probably fold to a K or A turn, but not much else.

Thanks for the help.

ship it pre.

I would probably just check the turn, youre either way ahead or behind. I would have 4bet preflop though.

Given your $200 stack, you aren't calling $33 pre for set value. So, shipping over his big raise pre seems like a good possibility, as does shipping the flop with no A or K. (This last assumed you have reads that his raises mean big cards.)

Thats the problem, his raises seem to mean anything, i just think a ton of his range has at least one big card. I dont love shipping pre, but i thought shipping flop was probably best. $113 pot vs my ship of $167, slight overbet but probably the most optimal.

As played, we both checked turn, river was Kc for a four flush on the board. He led out for $50 and i had to fold with two red nines. He showed As4d.... i immediately maxed my buyin

What was drunk's 3-bet frequency?

I would 4-bet and ship flop.

You can't avoid variance against drunk players or play on a wild table.

Easy 4 bet pre.

I like a 4 bet pre

320 minutes and no reads damn what've you been doing all that time

nah but as others have said gotta 4b pre, either all in or with the intention of shoving any flop. 99 is a tough hand to play post flop and when you're against a crazy villain who has shown he'll 3b pre somewhat light, why make things tougher than they need to be? you're beating his range pre, just raise

im getting it in pre.

Am I wrong for wanting to call on the river? After the turn is checked through, I would expect villain to make a lot of bluffs on the river, even on a scary board. We only need to be good a low percentage of the time. The guy is a drunk maniac who just checked the turn. We can't assume that he has it.

so by the time we put in $33 pre the pot is $68 and we have $167 behind. A pot sized 4bet would leave us with roughly $100 behind otf with a pot of $204

Against a typical villain a 4bet shove here is bad b/c they will most likely fold when beat and call when ahead, but this villain has shown a willingness to gamble so we can get called by worse and presumably he will fold a significant part of the time allowing us to just pick up the pot. I think shoving in a sense is the conservative play here b/c making a smaller 4 bet risks villain hitting a higher pair on the flop then we have to get it in nearly dead since we can't fold many flops

So I'd shove pf

Gotta 4bet pre and be prepared to ride the variance train, because even maniacs pick up hands sometimes. One thing you should consider however is not to flat 3bets HU for set-mining purposes. You ended up putting in $33 with 99 preflop getting barely 6:1. This is horribly -EV and a big leak. Remember, you want somewhere between 10:1 or 20:1 implied odds to make setmining worthwhile. You just arent going to hit often enough to make calling $33 raises profitable, even when you do hit your set and stack him.

ONLY 320 minutes??? That's nearly 5 and a half hours. Is the 2 a typo? I'll just assume that you meant to put 30 minutes. Okay....anyway.......

Can you please explain why in the world you did not 4 bet pre flop? This guy is a "drunk maniac" as you said...your 99 are probably very good here, so why are you just calling? With a decent pair or AQs or better and 100bb against a maniac that 3 bets me, I'm looking to get it all in pre flop.

Yeah, meant 30 mins