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55 - how to extract value on a miracle turn 1/2 55 - how to extract value on a miracle turn 1/2

09-29-2016 , 11:17 AM
V1 and V2 are both regs, both tend to be snug and extremely value weighted with their aggression. Effective stacks are $300+

Preflop V1 limps UTG+1, another limper in MP, Hero completes with 55 in the SB, V2 checks BB

Flop $8
334

checks around

Turn $8
334 5

Hero $7, V1 $15, V2 call, MP folds, Hero ???

We effectively have the nuts so I'm trying to shovel as much in the middle as I can get without blowing off my customers who do both have fold buttons.

Better to 3! here? Sizing? Or flat, let V1 lead river and CR?

If we 3! and get called what's our river plan/sizing?

Board is very wet with all sorts of draws to 2nd best. I think V1's holdings are most likely things like A2, 67, 3X, diamonds. V2 might be a bit wider but when he cold calls what's effectively 2X the beggining pot he has something decent.
55 - how to extract value on a miracle turn 1/2 Quote
09-29-2016 , 11:39 AM
So you read is that both villains are snug and tend to bet for value, and that they both have fold buttons. To me that means that by the time you go into the turn with only $8 in the pot you have lost the ability to play a huge pot unless you are in an extreme cooler situation (like villains have 34 35 or 44) in which case it's almost never going to matter what line you take. Also when playing 55 and you get a flop that a) you are almost certainly ahead given that exact board but b) is extremely vulnerable to going into 2nd place on later streets against opponents that seem like fit or fold types, you should be leading the flop.

As played obviously call and then lead like 30 on any river and hope you have coolered either of the villains and someone raises.
55 - how to extract value on a miracle turn 1/2 Quote
09-29-2016 , 12:29 PM
You have a V who raised and a V who called that raise and now there is ~40 in the pot (after rake). Make it $35 total. It's only 20 more to call for each of them and one may spazz 4!
55 - how to extract value on a miracle turn 1/2 Quote
09-29-2016 , 12:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pony_law
So you read is that both villains are snug and tend to bet for value, and that they both have fold buttons. To me that means that by the time you go into the turn with only $8 in the pot you have lost the ability to play a huge pot unless you are in an extreme cooler situation (like villains have 34 35 or 44) in which case it's almost never going to matter what line you take. Also when playing 55 and you get a flop that a) you are almost certainly ahead given that exact board but b) is extremely vulnerable to going into 2nd place on later streets against opponents that seem like fit or fold types, you should be leading the flop.

As played obviously call and then lead like 30 on any river and hope you have coolered either of the villains and someone raises.
I also would have bet the flop, but as played, why do you think this is an obvious call? I'm re-raising this turn to $40 or so. Villain(s) might very well call with A3 or a straight. Then we are really building a pot and, if called, can put in a nice value bet on the river.

Smooth calling the turn raise and then leading out the river isn't fooling anyone and is never a bluff, and is essentially the same as re-raising the turn but you're losing the street of value.
55 - how to extract value on a miracle turn 1/2 Quote
09-29-2016 , 12:47 PM
Flop: Yeah. You need to lead here but don't get too excited. Your hand isn't that great. A $4 - $5 bet/fold should work.

Turn: I would favor a 3! if not for the presence of V2. Here, you need to flat the turn and look to c/r the river. River is less likely to check though with 2 V's in the hand. A straight or a boat is likely to bet the river big thinking that will be the last bet to get paid. If someone has one of these they won't let it check through. You might see a big bet followed by a call or a raise. If so, you might just get the chance to stack off yet.
55 - how to extract value on a miracle turn 1/2 Quote
09-29-2016 , 12:57 PM
The reason I like my line (not that raising is turn is bad) is that to me villains like the one described are more likely to make crying calls on the river with hands that have show down value then they are to go crazy/call a line on the turn that screams super strength as well. You think Snug regulars are calling a re raise with 1 card to come with a draw? I don't I don't want to knock out any draw and I think the chance they might spazz out on the river if their draws hit or if they miss and they happen to have a 3 are higher then them doing so on the turn.
55 - how to extract value on a miracle turn 1/2 Quote
09-29-2016 , 01:00 PM
Pony - you need to target the upper end of ranges on hands like this.
55 - how to extract value on a miracle turn 1/2 Quote
09-29-2016 , 01:05 PM
OP, flop may seem trivial, but if this is your standard play in this situation, it's a big leak in your game. You may want to give this some thought.
55 - how to extract value on a miracle turn 1/2 Quote
09-29-2016 , 01:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pony_law
The reason I like my line (not that raising is turn is bad) is that to me villains like the one described are more likely to make crying calls on the river with hands that have show down value then they are to go crazy/call a line on the turn that screams super strength as well. You think Snug regulars are calling a re raise with 1 card to come with a draw? I don't I don't want to knock out any draw and I think the chance they might spazz out on the river if their draws hit or if they miss and they happen to have a 3 are higher then them doing so on the turn.


1st bold: considering V2 already called a raise, calling a small 3! isn't outside of the realm of possibility

2nd bold: so you think someone with a draw+trips is not going to call a small 3! to possibly hit their draw or boat up??

Calling is losing value. Any hand that can be made on the river, Vs are calling OTT. If they fold OTT, they weren't drawing to make a good hand OTR and will fold to a bet regardless of what falls
55 - how to extract value on a miracle turn 1/2 Quote
09-29-2016 , 01:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot

Calling is losing value. Any hand that can be made on the river, Vs are calling OTT. If they fold OTT, they weren't drawing to make a good hand OTR and will fold to a bet regardless of what falls
This [/thread].

You HAVE to reopen the betting on the turn. I'd make it $45. Straights will call you. Trips will call you. Flush draws will think about calling you. Smaller boats will call you.

Make it $45 here and, if both players call, make it $100 on the river. If only one player calls, I'd go for more like $75 on the river.
55 - how to extract value on a miracle turn 1/2 Quote
09-29-2016 , 02:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by $FishWreck$
OP, flop may seem trivial, but if this is your standard play in this situation, it's a big leak in your game. You may want to give this some thought.
You're absolutely right. The flop check is horribad and something I do a lot OOP and its a leak that needs to be plugged.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sierradave
You HAVE to reopen the betting on the turn. I'd make it $45. Straights will call you. Trips will call you. Flush draws will think about calling you. Smaller boats will call you.
The wet nature of the board also pushes me to want to reopen OTT vs waiting for the river. Flush draws may call OTT but will fold OTR if they miss. Straights will call OTT but may fold OTR if the flush hits.

The 2 villains though pushes me toward flat and let our relative position play out because it's fairly likely V1 will lead and V2 call before we CR. Then again a CR on the river looks stronger (to me at least) than a 3! on the turn and makes it less likely we get called.

Spoiler:
I 3! to $45 OTT, V1 folds, V2 calls. I lead $65 OTR - diamond did hit - and V2 tank calls. V1 claimed he had 67 for turned nut straight. Never saw V2's hand
55 - how to extract value on a miracle turn 1/2 Quote
09-30-2016 , 07:51 PM
I think this is a difficult spot with a difficult argument for the primary reason that either answer (line) isn't going to be that satisfying because it's doubtful without a cooler you can get stacks in by river.


I think you just go for full value and 3! the turn to try to build pot, then lead river.

My main reasoning for this is just calling and donking, is a signal of strength to an ok player and he'll likely just call without a boat and even then so; by just calling and then hoping for a check raise, well what if he doesn't bet, and you certainly won't get another bet after you C/R that isn't beating you.

So... pretty sure we just 3! for as much as humanly possible we think gets a call and lead river. I think that is... no more than 62? no less than 42. So it's like you C/R to 48-53, then lead river for 80-90. Or if you know opponent and depending on river, putting him on a weaker boat or a 3 he can't let go, I, which I never do, maybe like an overbet here. Say of 140-160 into pot of about 110.

C/R to 55~

Lead river either 90~ or Overbet 160.
Can't fold ever.
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