Good post. difficult hand. Just saw this today bc it looked interesting. Think first page or two of comments was skewed by the initial Vil remark: "Haha I bluff you!"

In reading all three pages, kept thinking it very unlikely that Vil was bluffing here. Even after results, still think his air range was < 20%.

I think the turn is a clear ship or fold and I'd probably ship it. I'll try to has this out a little later why I think the real decision is on the turn.

The river is a fold although he probably never has a boat here but I'd be so confused I'd just muck. If he calls a bet here with like a red AT than thats about the only hand that makes sense.

Do you two have any history or a reason he'd have an axe to grind with you?

Everything he did in this hand contradicts his style when he's bluffing. I would either shove the turn or fold the river. I can't fold a flush to this guy OTT but I don't think he's shoving air. The worst he can have is a str8 and I would put him on a better flush or a FH.

Nope. We hadn't played a heads up hand at all, and were having a nice conversation off and on all night.

I think if you call the turn you are basically forced to fold all rivers

If you think he is calling a ship on the turn with QsJx or QxJs I think its a clear ship on the turn and if not you call then fold all rivers.

Especially if you two have been congenial with one another he probably doesn't view this as a hand where he wants to "show somebody up" and bluff them (as he has been bluffing in raised pots).

On the river he probably has exactly ATos with no spade which is just bizarre and he is probably check folding the river if it bricks.

EDIT: Actually I dunno. I think calling the turn and folding 100% of rivers is the right play. Most players aren't shipping in non flush hands on a 3 flush board versus somebody as tight as you and you have the 2nd worst flush possible.

I think it's impossible his calling range is only flushes. This kind of vill will have a hard time laying down 2p+FD, str8+FD, and maybe even something like AxJs (since he does have the royal draw after all). sets are unlikely for him, but he can also put you on sets and AK (semi-bluffing?) and call with worse than a flush.

I agree with some previous posters that the decision is on the turn, and calling is a really bad turn line since it makes the river difficult a lot of the time. you also got the nut worst river card, so don't be too hard on yourself.

the way I see it, any river: A, K, Q, J, T, or spade is a bad deal. I mention the non-pairing broadway cards, b/c vill can think his straight is good on the river when you flat, overvalue his hand, and then make it really hard to know what he has. or it can kill any action, since he's not going to call on the river without a straight when he might have called the turn with his 2p or combo draw.

1. I think people are giving too much merit to the details of "how villain bluffs." Villain is capable of bluffing and takes pride in it. The fact that we haven't yet seen a river bluff or a shove bluff is somewhat irrelevant unless we have multiple sessions of history with that read.

So anyone who says "but this isn't the exact style he bluffs so we must fold" is being foolish.

2. I also think the people who are suggesting a turn shove are being overly optimistic. For us to make this turn shove, we have to have something like..>40% equity against his calling range? And what's his calling range? Higher flushes, 1 lower flush, some frequency of Q 5x, and a small frequency of Ax two pairs that are ignoring the 3flush board.

I don't think we have that but I don't have stove on here so I can't check for sure.

I'd like to see some mathematical counterarguments on the turn play from anyone who supports shoving over calling the turn.