Originally Posted by mpethybridge
Also, he doesn't have a lot of semi-bluffs in his range here. If he folds even some of them to a shove, plus some hands he is value betting like QJ and AT, then we're risking making a raise that only gets called by a range that beats us.
If you're assuming he calls with his whole betting range, then I'd probably agree. I'm mainly pissed at myself for not even considering a shove.
I think it's impossible his calling range is only flushes. This kind of vill will have a hard time laying down 2p+FD, str8+FD, and maybe even something like AxJs (since he does have the royal draw after all). sets are unlikely for him, but he can also put you on sets and AK (semi-bluffing?) and call with worse than a flush.
I agree with some previous posters that the decision is on the turn, and calling is a really bad turn line since it makes the river difficult a lot of the time. you also got the nut worst river card, so don't be too hard on yourself.
the way I see it, any river: A, K, Q, J, T, or spade is a bad deal. I mention the non-pairing broadway cards, b/c vill can think his straight is good on the river when you flat, overvalue his hand, and then make it really hard to know what he has. or it can kill any action, since he's not going to call on the river without a straight when he might have called the turn with his 2p or combo draw.