Hero - MAWG Stack $500. Playing fairly snug because of card dead and every time I raise, I get 5-7 callers.

Villain - German Whale. I have been playing with this guy off and on for 10 years. He is super loose-aggro. He usually has a piece but will triple barrel very light (bottom pair/all draws). We are friendly and he has been showing me his cards all night. He has been getting light call downs for the last 5 hours and now has roller coasted his $500 to $100 back to $500.


OTTH -

Hero is UTG with snowmen 8 8 and opens to $12
Villain is UTG +1 and calls.
Button calls.
SB calls.

Flop ($50) 3 5 3

Checked to Hero who bets $35.
German Whale calls. All other fold.

I ask the German Whale if he wants to check it down. He said, no and wanted to play it out.

Turn ($120) Q
Hero checks.
German Whale bets $35.
Hero calls.

River ($190) 8 of diamonds Binkkkkkkk.

German Whale already has $50 counted out and in his hand.
Hero checks
German Whale bets $50. Villain has $368 behind. Hero covers.


Hero?

Jam or standard raise to $125-$180 sizing?

Jam if you think he plays 3x this way, 190 if you think he's got qhxh

Never raising to 125 otr

Since our villain here is a super loose aggro player, if I were to raise to $125 it would be because I thought there would be a good chance this player could come back over the top of me shoving all in, and I would want to give him that opportunity. I would be asking myself here...is villain more likely going to call an all in raise, call a raise to $180, or shove over the top against a week looking raise, and I would make my choice based on that read. Just because I am hearing that our villain is so loose aggro, I would raise to about $125 hoping he would shove.

What does our hero think about villain here? Is villain likely to shove over the top of a small raise?

You've played with this V for 10 years, so I'm sure there has to be some meta-game going on between you two that we know nothing about. In general though, I'm jamming if I think he's weighted more towards made hands (mostly 3x) and raising small if I think he's weighted more towards air/busted draw.

180-200 straight would be "standard" IMO. If you've come to the conclusion that he's bluffing and you're trying to induce, then I actually would size way down to 110-120. My reasoning would be that I want stacks to still be deep enough that V thinks that a 3! bluff could get you off of most hands. If you make it 120, there's still 300 behind in a 430 pot after he "calls" your raise. Having 2/3PSB behind is plenty enough to leverage into a bluff. If you make it something like 190, then it would be a 570 pot with only 230 behind. If I was in Vs shoes I'b be much less likely to attempt a 3! bluff jam if you use the larger sizing, as I wouldn't expect to be able to fold out much.

All that said, I'm jamming it if I'm you. Other than Qxhh, I don't think your V can have many hands here that would make your sizing matter. I think he either has a 3 and will call anything, or he has air/bricked draws and is folding to any sizing. Your history with V might make it worth trying to induce a river 3! bluff jam from him, but in a standard 1/2 game I'm never expecting that to happen, so I'm going for max value against 3x hands, Qxhh that wants to get sticky, and the very unlikely 55 that would make this hand a total cooler.

Given that he counted out chips in advance as attempt to stall you...

doubtful he has Qx

10 yrs is a long time, maybe if u have displayed some sick c/r bluffs in this timeframe an overshove could work vs hero calls

Otherwise i think raising smaller to target 5x & weaker pairs seems more prudent given action & his tell

Wat

I rarely do this but with this Villain, it was a tactic to obtain information. I wanted to see his reaction to gauge his hand strength (or perceived.)

I often over jam the river but it is almost always an exploitative nuttish shove. Since, not all of them get to showdown (and I never show), this has developed a good BS image with regs in my game. I will wait until tonight and give results.

It seems like you're basing your raise size on his bet-sizing. $125 is a very small raise.

Nice line. Shove.

Most whales are aware they are the whales and the true ones I've encountered are anything but stupid people (They're often whales because they're crushing life and we're not). With that in mind, they also want to win, but don't mind losing, but want the action and want your best game, sooooo don't do any of this check it down stuff or any other angle, just always do exactly what the whale wants to do and avoid employing 'tactics'. If he wants straddles then straddle etc. It's not that what you did is reprehensible, but it can evolve into something that is and I see it all the time - regs thinking the whale is an idiot bc he plays poker like one.