Grunch

Ugh... I had a bunch of **** typed out but accidentally closed the window... DOH! Alright, so this is actually a kind of weird spot since both flatting and raising the flop and turn all seem like feasible. The fact that this guy is unknown makes it even more difficult. I guess which line I would take is based on the following (very broad) assumptions:

1. Villain is a thinking player (young asian w/ big stack).
2. He won't stack off OTF with Ax unless he can beat your hand (ie. two pair OTF).
3. He won't stack off OTF/flat a well sized raise with a naked spade draw, but will jam sets, two pairs, and combo draws.
4. He won't call a turn raise with a spade draw on a paired board.
5. He might call a turn raise with a weaker Ax hand.

So given these assumptions, what is the best line? I think that raising the flop allows villain to play almost perfect against you. He can just fold to a raise with lower Ax hands and weak flush draws and jam with his value range which AQ is not in great shape against. So I like to flat the flop and evaluate the turn card and villains action, especially in position.

So the turn rolls off, and villain fires another small bet. You would really think that if he has a monster here he would be betting more (right...?). I think your hand is well ahead here most of the time. The question is... to raise or not to raise? I think the answer to that question is raise. If you raise, are you really upset about any action he takes with a flush draw? If he folds, great, you win a nice sized pot and he forfeits his ~20% equity. If he calls, even better, it is just unfortunate that you will be committed to the pot and will loose your stack if he makes a flush OTR.

Now we look at the other part of his range, Ax type hands that you beat. How can you get the most value from them? I am really starting to think that overbet jamming the turn is a good play. Will he really be able to lay down A9 if you jam? A smaller raise looks really strong, although I don't think that he will be able to lay down any Ax hand if you make it like $125, although you give flush draws a good price to continue. Either way, I think I go for a big raise OTT and let him level himself into thinking that you are trying to push him off of the hand given his weak like thus far. I'm really interested to see what others think... so now I'm going to read the rest of the posts.

FWIW, I think that flatting the turn and bombing non spade rivers when checked to is a good line versus the Ax portion or his range.

i think the OP had it right when he said V has Ax, fds, and the very rare flopped set. His turn bet doesn't change his range at all.

*IF* we raise the turn it announces that we have a range of AJ+, so V should easily fold Ax and correctly fold fds. There isn't much value here unless V is unable fold made hands ( i didn't see that read) as a raise clearly reps the exact kind of hand we have. So the only reason to raise the turn is to protect as there's not much value to have ( who's calling a turn raise on a paired board with just a naked flush draw?).

I'd call the turn and probably call most rivers, as i expect a hand like A9 to keep firing, and draws can keep bluffing. The argument against jamming the river is the same, a river raise on this board is ALWAYS AK/AQ+.

I think raising requires some history where the hero has been known to bluff raise/ bluff jam draws or missed draws.

This hand just sucks because he's a complete unknown.

Flatting the turn sucks IMO because there's too much value now, and AQ crushes my perceived range.

I'm such a calling station.
But we can't see villain reshoving here with worse Ax hands? Especially since AQ crushes my perceived range? Or am I just making calling station excuses?