BB = Frequencies suggest TAG, but I think the guy's LAGging it up more & might be on some sort of tilt. A bad gambly reg kept calling this guy a good player and he got upset, saying "if I'm so good why am I down 3k this month?"

There was no showdown but he claimed to have bluffed in a previous pot where I called BB, there was a field raiser, and he flatted OTB. I had A5o, flopped an A and took a c/c line OTF and OTT to the pf raiser who was leading. Me and the pf raiser checked river and he lead out for ~3/4 pot. We both folded. (pf raiser was wide & bluffy)

He also 3b in position $105 to a TAG looking new kid's open to $20 and another caller. He accidentally flipped a 6 and was asked to reveal another card, which was an offsuit 9.

~$800 eff

UTG: new to table but so far seems like a huge station. ~$500 eff

UTG limps, BTN limps, Hero checks SB w. J9, BB checks.

$14

AJ9

Hero $10, BB calls, UTG calls, fold

$44

8

Hero $45 (miscalculated pot to $60), call, call

$178

6

Hero x, BB $200, fold, Hero?

I'm thinking V either backed into a flush or missed one... possibly made a straight as well. We need to be good ~35% to break even. Are we there?

meh, I think I sigh-fold river. Even though broadway gutshots missed, he's betting slightly bigger than pot, and against his sizing, I think we fold here. If he bets smaller, I might consider looking him up here. Don't think we're good around 35% of the time here.


If he's betting a lone Ace on the river because he's bad, then I might find a call, but in general, I think we have to find a fold here.

The range I'd assign him here looks like {KhTh+, KdQd, KdTd, QJs, QTs(2), JTs, T9s, 8d7d} Only giving 2 combos of QTs due to villain raising some on turn.
Against that range you have 42.8% equity. Not a snap call by any means, but given that exact range it's a call. However, it's a very difficult decision in the moment, making it probably break even to call/fold there.

Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk

I might have made a blocker bet like another $45 or so and folded if I got raised.

But AP, I'd probably just fold. I really don't like playing big pots in unraised pots.

I don't think a "blocker bet" will accomplish anything here. He may raise you with every hand I've listed above anyways. Folding because you "don't like playing big pots in unraised pots" isn't really a valid reason to fold here (although an understandable emotional reason). I think based on range and bet size it really doesn't matter if you call or fold in this spot in the long term.

Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk

Seems close. If he's a thinking player I don't think he over bets pot with something like AQ on the river assuming he called pre with and AQ type anyway.

The bet is certainly polarizing his range to bluff/near nuts. It's likely he has a A6dd/A8dd and backed into two pairs, but how often does he just calls turn with A8dd? Maybe he's calling with a FD thinking the fish behind is also on a FD and try to stack him?

We have to give him all combo spade/diamond Broadway (KT, KQ, QT) 2 of which were nesting and 4 that were losing to.

However, I think we can discount QT given no raise on the turn on a wet board. So we're beating and losing to 2 combos of KT/KQ

Against this range I think we have about 40% equity, but the chance that he's a thinking player that has shown the ability to bluff id lean towards a call.

But as someone mentioned above, I'd bet/fold the river to $80-100 instead of checking.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I can go either way, but he did bet into another player who had yet to act, with H still in hand. I probably sigh fold.

I like a bet/fold of ~$100 on river.

Bet folding 100ish and check calling are both fine and what id prob do

I hate check folding on this runout but don't think it's a terrible mistake either