Villain is a regular, TAG and seems generally straightforward. Hero has been aggressive in late position.

HJ limps, Hero in CO raises to $25 with AK, BTN calls, folds to HJ who calls.

Flop KJs4s. Check, Hero bets $60 into $77, BTN snaps, CO folds.

Turn 2h. Check, check. (Standard to vbet again, but wanted to mix it up)

River Jc. Hero bets $125 into $195, BTN thinks a while and raises to $325, Hero ?

Reads? How has he played his draws?

What hands has he shown down when calling big flop bets ip?

Obv. he is heavily weighted towards a Jack here based on how the hands has played out. If he was antsy about his draw, he would probably have bet the turn when checked to.

Is he more than 3 to 1 weighted towards Jacks?

I think this is a fold, unless you´ve got a strong sense from him that he thinks you´re FOS, in which case he would believe his FE to be much higher, and therefore bluffs more likely.

Big river bluff raises are less common than you think at these stakes. People get too scared. When it does happens you don´t forget it, but this is a J here about 85% of the time.

pretty sick spot. I think if you bet here, it has to be with the intention of bet folding. In that case, I fold. I probably would have c/c and let him bluff the busted draw. I think he bets with more hands you beat than he calls with. At live tables you don't see a lot of river bluffs. I'm guessing he got lucky with the jack OTR.

Also, since there's a draw out there on the turn, I think I would have fired another barrel.

Agreed, especially after you checked the turn, he is going to bluff busted draws as well as potentially valuebet some worse kings if you check to him again on the river.

It feels like hes maybe bluffing because you checked such an innocuous turn card, but im not convinced enough to make a call there.

Is he though. IDK, what hand with a jack causes a TAGish player to insta-flat the flop with Middle pair. A guess AJ works, though flatting there with AJ is kind of a suspect play IMO.

idk, the more i think about this hand, the more i like a call, but i probably still wouldn't make it.

Villain's line make sense with some Jx, the turn check is bad given how drawy this board is, don't mix it up, he's not paying attention to ur betting patters, value>>>deception

The C/c line is leveling yourself. The masses is not betting missed draws. People are so passive that they check back weaker kings here as well.

As played fold river. B/f was the right play.

If you are both deep (>100 bbs), I think you played the hand fine. Fold the river.

You are not likely getting value on every street vs. TAG opponent, so the turn check usually returns some additional river value. Unfortunate river card.

If you are shorter stacked, then you need to bet the turn.

Not betting the turn is criminal

Sorry, but did you just read the OP? The player is TAG...

What TAG shows up with a K here other than KQ (and KJ which we don't beat)? Possibly the odd K10s I believe there is a lot more value in trying to get villain to bluff missed draws, than trying to get KQ and K10 to call seeing as it's a relatively small part of his range.



As OP played I agree the river is a fold. If he bluffed a missed draw in this spot, well done, but more often than not this is a J.

Idc what the op says, 99% of the time you won't find a real tag at your table, let alone a bad one who will bluff in this spot.

If he is any good, he knows the average player with AK is checking that river and is calling for showdown.