Villain - $1000 - He is a decent player - but not a pro grinder as he has a job. We talk, as we have played before, and I like the guy. He is a decent player and is on my left which makes life a little hard but he isn't getting out of line just yet.

Hero - $1000 - In for a $1000, lost a few hands but have won them back. My image should be pretty clean as I haven't made any ridiculous plays that have been seen yet, and I had decent hands when I lost.

Hero is UTG+1 with 99 and opens to $20
Villain is UTG+2 and 3bets to $60 - his range imo is JJ+ and AK - I would be very surprised to see him 3betting lighter than that.
folds to me
I tank call as i'm not too thrilled about this spot, but we are deep - let's try and catch a good flop.

$127
765

Decent flop
I check
He goes $75
We can't fold just yet so I make the call

Turn is 2
Check
Check

River
4
Check
He goes $100
I go $500

Thoughts?

If I was friendly, I might just let you have it, but the line looks sort of shaky.

I'd reevaluate the flop first. I'm not saying that the call is terrible, but I'd strongly consider how often we're getting barreled and how many turns we'd actually be happy to see. If we call flop, we must assume this gets checked to the river plenty.

Moving to the river, seems more like he's going for value with such a small bet (though I'd still likely call getting 3.8:1 and hoping for AK). I wouldn't count on getting folds over 50% of the time, which is about what we'd need to be +EV.

The only real question to ask is if he can lay down an OP getting 2:1 odds. You've played with him before so you should have an idea. If the answer is yes, then it is a good bluff. It certainly looks like you could have 8s or 4s and both fit how you played this hand. If he can't, then it is a bad bluff.

You tell us what you think.

I mean you can only really represent so many hands here. You almost never have a 3 and the only combos that realistically play the hand this way are 88, 89s,78s and that might be a little out of line. If your opponent is a thinking player he can break down that he's probably getting good enough odds to call.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

Seems like an awfully poor line for a capable player to take with an OP and his line looks like some sort of 3b bluff that just got there. Don't like the the ck raise whatsoever.

This.

What do you think he has? OP doesn't make any sense

He has Jj+ and Ak here almost always.

I feel like my play works more than 50% of the time and even aces will have a hard time calling me I would take this like with a set and 2 pair because I know he is capped

No one is thinly value betting river after checking turn with an overpair unless he is literally clicking buttons.

Donk or x/r flop.

Some people are.

There's supposed to be a *good* in there. No one good...

And villain was described as decent.

Checking turn and betting river with an overpair is horrible.

How can he have JJ+ here. That's just absurd. It really seems like what Aman said. Or AK is taking a random stab.

FPS

Seems like a terrible line, how many 8x hands do you have that make sense given the rest of the action

your play is tough as you called knowing he had you crushed pre. and was wider than you could know and guess how to get away from many of the flops.

then your play on the river after check raising there looks like a desperation bluff. i would call you as you gave up two streets of value possibly to get in a check raise on the river. doesnt make sense.
i would even call you with the AK if i had it and lose.

Well you guys are all nits or too good - not sure. Maybe if I said my hand was 88 you would love my play. Honestly - every single bluff I posted on this forum over the years you guys have hated - and they have all worked. Not sure if that is run good - or if you guys are the nittiest bunch of nits ever- but it's fine when you get picked off. To be fair - I would say I don't bluff enough - because when I do make these wild plays that I post they generally work. Just watch Doug Polk. He is full of creative lines that you nits would hate.

The aggression is very good for the game as well.

I don't know why you're complaining. Villain's line is polarized. He either has a hand like AK, which we're ahead of anyway, or a straight (maybe set???) which he's unlikely to fold. Thus bluffing makes no sense.

The combos you are targeting with this bluff do not take this line postflop, so your bluff is bad.

only thing I don't like about it is why does he bet the river when a huge scare card hits the board?

is he bluffing? is he nutted?

given that we just want to take the money and we are not worried about if we are unnecessarily bluffing or not, it seems like a good spot to bluff.

500 might be a bit much. 350 instead?

How about check/raise to 225 on the flop with a pot committing bet on the turn if called? Put max pressure on if he has JJ-AA.

Also, if he is not a good hand reader it makes sense to him for us to play a set very fast since its a drawy board (not for his range, but he does not realize it).

What kind of logic is this? You realize we beat a bluff but punt money when he is nutted - so what the hell is the point of your bet?

Why? People love to hero call b/x/b lines.

Hero admitted as much implying he would fold turn to further aggression.

If villain had an overpair he just got max value vs. hero's spewy folding worse/getting called by better river bluff.

When I first read this, I thought it was a snap call on the river. It would be a strange line with anything but 88, which seems unlikely for a 3bet (and turn check). I thought maybe I was missing something though, so didn't post. I'm not really sure what the river raise is accomplishing; we're not trying to get V to fold 88 are we?

People take value b/x/b in 3bet pots to pot control against set miners and also sometimes because they intuitively recognize when the board kinda sucks for their range. Yes, I can see AA taking this line IF the last card didn't put out the 4liner. The reasoning that AA might check turn is only going to be more valid on the river.

I think it's imortant to recognize that people don't generally change their overarching logic/reasoning halfway through a hand.

An overpair is possible, just incredibly unlikely except for 88 (which not many villains 3bet).

It's not THAT you're bluffing that causes most of us to pour red ink all over your play, it's the WHEN and the HOW.

As Avarita said, donking or check raising flop is waaaay better than c/c if V's range is what you say it is. Once V checks back the turn, it's pretty clear he's at the bottom of his range and giving up (ie AK, AQ or whatever), since most people would bet turn again with their over pairs and check back river. When he bets the river, you're probably just better off calling than raising against the bet size and his likely range. You're getting a pretty good price, are at the top of your range (prob), and his bet/check/bet line is 88 or a bluff imo.

The fact that he snap folds and shows lol AK, doesn't solidify anything as far as your bluff goes. You a)had the best hand, and b)caught him at the bottom of his range. The fact he folded AK does not support that he would also fold hands that are beating you. Maybe he will, maybe he won't, but his AK fold proves nothing.

Furthermore, Doug Polk is a very very good player, no doubt, but don't get carried away with what he says/teaches bc it's easy to misapply things and then you're just being spewy/fancy.

This

Really only depends on how likely he is to get away from an overpair.

Raising flop and barreling is probably good too