Hero($700) Been at the table for a few hours now, should have a TAG image to the villain. We haven't been involved in any pots while at the table.

V3(Covers) 30's male. TAG, but probably closer to nit. He really hasn't been playing many hands at all, nor raising preflop. He will bet post-flop though with strong hands and apply some pressure, but nothing really noteworthy. Compared to the rest of the table, he's been low-key

OTTH

Hero is on button, villain (V3) SB

V1 (UTG+1): Raises to $25
CO: Calls
Hero (Button): Calls with AJ
V3 (SB): Calls

Flop ($105): Q 8 3

Checks through

Turn: 2

V3 leads out for $40, V1 flats, Hero raises to $125

At this point, I feel like this is a must raise if we're looking to play for stacks, especially with V1 flatting V3's lead.

V3 thinks for about 5 seconds and flats. V1 folds

River ($395): 8

Villain checks, hero? Hero has $550 left.

Given player descriptions, I don't like your flop or turn lines.

He sounds non-tricky enough that you should probably be betting this flop. $55/60 should do the trick. That can get folds from 99/1010/JJ/AK (though 99 might not be in his pf range). I would expect him to lead out with AA/KK/AQ. Only hand in his pf range that you have to fear is QQ. And if he's slowplaying top set here, he probably isn't planning to check-raise the flop with it. So this seems like an easy bet flop, eval turn if you have a solid tag image.

By the same reasoning, I don't like a turn raise at all. If the guy is nitty, then what range of hands do you think he's actually going to call your raise with? Am I right to assume that he hasn't seen you raise the turn with a semibluff flush draw? I don't think there are any Ksxs in his range. He might bet AxKs on the turn, or JsJx/10s10x, but he probably folds all of those to your raise.

The lack of a flop bet makes it really hard to play for stacks on the turn/river unless (a) you have a wild image, (b) your opponent is a massive station, or (c) your opponent happens to have a massive hand. Removing (a) and (b) in this case, your turn raise is going to narrow his range basically down to QQ/maybe 88/maaaaaybe a very-frustrated-from-being-carddead AxKs/JxJs/10x10s. I suppose there's an outside possibility that he raised UTG+1 with J10ss, 109ss, KJss, or 67ss, but it doesn't match the range we've given him.

On the river, AxKs is folding to any bet. JJ and 1010 are usually folding as well, but maybe he calls a $200 bet with them. QQ will check-raise you all in, as will 88.

I'm on the fence between bet-folding $200 and just checking behind. Given how low-key he's played, I'd stare him down for 15 seconds and try to pick up a physical read. If his body is tensed or it looks like he's trying to appear meek, then I would just check-behind.

Nothing will steam this player more than missing a bet on the river.

B/F river $130, targeting smaller flushes.

Flop is a must bet with NFD and an over card ip. Table showed weakness, including a nitty V, while you are unlikely to improve ott. Try to scoop it now.

I think this is smaller flush all the way, I'd bet 300/call raise. Sometimes I'll see QQ here I'm sure, with OP's description of villain 33, 22, 88 and Q8 seem unlikely. I don't see folding to a raise here, if that's the plan I'd just check behind. 130 seems to be giving up a lot of value. With that being said, I'd have bet this flop and have been committed by the turn so it's not a standard situation I find myself in with nut flush.

I agree bet flop.

3 combos 33
3 combos 22
1 combo 88
QQ 3! Pre a lot so I'd discount it some.

Honestly I don't understand the above post discounting all the set mining hands except QQ.

Obviously he could elect to not lead into the PFR with a flopped set but not leading river causes me to discount his sets boats a bit I'd just completely discount All QQ.

So 7 combos beat us.

How many realistic flush combos does he have?

Maybe KT, K9, T9, 76, 65, 97

If he's nitty does he fold some of these to a turn raise followed by a river bet?

6 combos.

You have to discount the sets further to justify a value bet here.

So if you feel strongly that he usually would lead river with his boats you could further discount them and in that case b/f for thin value from his flushes.

Personally I don't discount the boats that much and since we showed a lot of strength on the turn flush card I'm not sure he doesn't find a fold with the weakest flushes.

I lean toward checking it back. If we do bet for thin value i'd keep it to 150 ish. Guy is borderline nit.

Absolutely disagree with bet/call vs a nit on this board.

Close, but still same betting 125. Maybe he has KKs, maybe 3-4 flushes, and a few FHs that just ck-c anyway. He has a few bluff catches in range as well even if they're lol calls when hero sizes down.

Bet flop FFS. Initial raiser isn't interested, we have nut position and "TAG" villain (who sounds weak-tight IMO) is OOP and usually has to fold here. We can take it down right now, if we're never going to make moves with NFDs, we effectively have AJo and if we have AJo, we should fold pre.

If villain is nitty enough to play cautiously preflop we can just xb river. Otherwise b/f for think value.

Flop is auto bet.

AP Turn x/r is too small. We want to go around pot to set up a river shove.

Error in OP 105 in pot, 250 went in on turn, yet total pot says 395???

AP river b/f 1/3 pot seems fine.

I would bet $200. See if he'll bite.

am i the only one that thinks hero can't bet fold river when he checks back flop? if i took this line i'd prob bet call off like 275 here

nits don't x/jam river with non-nut flushes on a paired board

So I'm just goin going to ask did you think about 3b pre?

Bet the flop. Raise more on turn. Bet $200 on river. B/f is good against this player.

Thinking of any spot as auto anything is not a good way of approaching poker. But bet flop is best here.

B/F river is good vs this villain I believe. I'm betting an amount I think flushes will call as we probably don't get called by anything else.

Suited ace, flop nut flush draw in absolute position, board not paired, not 3 to a straight, LLSNL, no remarkable reads. I'm gonna spend my thinking time on sizing.

LOL at checking back river. Your read is based on 3-4 hours of live play, aka <100 hands... at best maybe that means you can dig down deep for a B/F. There are far too many hands he can have on river that he calls a ~150 bet with, and as played (check back on flop), he unfortunately might even be raising a small portion of his range for value on river that doesn't beat hero's holding (primarily smaller flushes).

To b/f you need to feel pretty confident that he never plays suited connectors pre-flop from the blinds multiway (aka he never has a smaller flush here) and never bluffs in this spot (this is probably fine to conclude). I can get behind this logic to find a b/f line but if you check back river, go home.

You forgot about the $40 V1 flat.

Thanks for all the replies.

I took the b/f line here for many of the reasons stated above. Bet $175 (too large after reading through this) and villain thought for about 3 seconds, announced all in, and spun his chair around facing away from the table.

I ended up folding obviously. Villain accidently shows an 8 (?!?!) That threw me for a complete loop, either he had some incredibly strange boat given how few hands he was playing, quads, or turned his hand into a very odd bluff here given his nittish status. I cannot imagine he led out the turn, called a raise, and x/r on the river with a naked 8 thinking he was good.

my bad

Quads or a read that's way off. You didn't fish for info? "crap, I had an 8 also! what was your kicker?"

I'm honestly shocked at how many of you b/f this. Bet/call > check > bet/fold in my opinion. Sure, we don't have the nuts, but are you guys ever getting your money in with these types of lines? Pot is ~ stack size, so bet folding is extremely exploitable. Checking is not exploitable, but you've got to get some value from the hand. If you bet and get raised (let's say we keep it at the 125 micro-bet, which I'd bet more), we've got to be right 1 out of 4 times to call this? 125 bet is also screaming "I've got a flush but I'm sizing it in a way that I'm willing to lay it down to shove".

Clearly I'm wrong here, but I'm just trying to understand the logic of the b/f consensus.

Think about it this way...NIT V has zero bluffs AP and no hands worse than NF that ck-r riv for value.

Bet/folding is super exploitable. Obviously this is correct.
However, the idea of someone actually exploiting it is pretty much unheard of at 1/2.
And even if they are occasionally probably not often enough to make bet/calling a good line here in a vacuum.

As played, bet $200-300.

I think you should have semi-bluffed flop though. You would have gotten a bigger pot and easy all-in on the river.

Turn is good

I like this line. I'm gonna use it