i know most people in the forum hate the multi barrel bluff. i def don't do many but felt ok about this one and want some feedback
Hero ($1k UTG+1) - should have a pretty TAG image, but villain is one of the relatively new players (~1 hour or so). Young nerdy looking asian kid
V ($800 CO) - young WG. seems to be playing standard from what i can see. no notable hands shown down, but seems to opening a reasonable amount of hands.
very recent relative HH: hero opens KQo to $25 from EP. V calls from sb. heads up I do not c-bet a 97d6d flop, we check a 5 turn, and he fires a river and I just fold.
Hero opens KcQc UTG+1 to $25
folds to V in CO who calls
rest fold
at this point, I don't have the strongest of reads and range him on something reasonable like most pocket pairs under QQ. AQ, KQ, AJs, maybe ATs/KTs/QTs/JTs type hands
Flop ($50) Tc9h6h
Hero bets $30
V calls
standard c-bet for me to fold out any ace-high hands or smaller pocket pairs. have the gutshot to the nuts and overs that i presume to be good a high % of time.
turn ($110) 7c
Hero bets $70
V calls
river ($250) 7d
hero bets $150
FWIW I would value bet any of my overpairs/AT on this runout. I like bluffing here when frontdoor flushdraw misses and I don't block any hearts. we block KT/QT as well. although we prefer not to have the Tc blocker I guess.
We're risking $150 to win $250. As long as he's folding 37.5% of his range that gets to the river, we're making $. Anyways, for a somewhat unknown player who's been playing lots of hands and possibly connected 9765 board before, I might range him a bit wider than you have for a CO flat. People love playing suited connectors and 1 gappers in these deeper games (at least in my population) as well as some offsuit broadways, maybe even as low as JTo. Anyways... I think the range that ends up making it to the river, especially after our strong turn bet is mostly TP and overs. When I mess around with flopzilla, the range I see for middle pairs, A high, and busted draws is only 19%. Maybe he folds out some TP hands and even JJ, but I'm not sure about that.
Since you're likely have a better read on this guy than us, you can try listing all the combos you think he has OTR and see if you think 38% of those fold to your bet. If so, then you're in the clear. Personally, I think his range is fairly strong here considering we look sort of passive and he called us for 2 streets worth of decent sized betting.
If you're value betting 3 streets with AT+ on this runout then you're "value" betting way too much.
Fwiw we have one of the few hands that wants to bet turn along with our value hands. Should be almost always checking this turn as we really only have 3 combos of straights and 6 combos of sets. Might even make sense to play whole turn range starting with a check.
When you bet the turn $70 into $110 and he calls you put yourself in no where land because if he has a straight he'll call you and if he is slowplaying a set on the flop he'll call you, and he's most likely not folding JJ here for another bet.
Now if you dropped me in from outter space on the river the pot is $250 and you bet $150, if he did get here with AT or JJ he's on the fence whether to call or not, and then he's going to start wondering and pondering and thinking, could you really have an 8 here? Ohh boy, how much is that bet $150......... hmm....... would he really bet an over pair here??, well....... I don't know....... jeeze, this is tough........ hmmm....... I'll call... you gotta a straight??? No??
In his mind, maybe he'll even vocalize it to the table now: "Yeah it didn't make sense, the board paired, the straight was there, I just thought he could have lots of bluffs"
