Young, competent V raises $15 utg (wide-ish range with that standard 3x pre sizing)

6-way to the flop, Hero (snug image) has QThh in CO

$600 eff..

FLOP ($90): Q9cc4d
V bets $35, only H calls

TURN ($160): 6s
V checks, Hero bets $100, V shoves, Hero ??


It's hard to put V on a hand here with that flop sizing on a draw board 6-handed, it looks like a draw itself..

Turn, what can he have?? Axcc? 87cc? Can we make the call? Not much history with V, so I'm not sure, also my image could play a role here.

Probably just a spot where he elected to ck his value hands considering stacks, 1/3 pot, Ck-shv sizing.

You also probably don't need to bet the turn too often with this hand and probably never for $100.

Turn is really spewy. You saw the flop 6 ways and only have top pair no kicker against the UTG+1 raiser. What do you hope to get called by?

Realize that your hand is a bluffcatcher on the flop and check back turn. You don't need to bet for the sole purpose of denying equity.

Dont hate the turn bet, specifically because of stack sizes. There is a ton behind ($550). If villain check shoves, we can be super confident we are beat. We can bet turn to check back river unimproved. Also, yes, villain raised pre, but he bet small otf and checked the turn - not a strong line.

That being said, checking back turn is a viable option too, mainly because its tough to get called by worse.

If there was only like 300 behind on turn, then we really dont want to face a shove. In that case, i'd check back the turn and its not close.

I think I'm checking back this turn to call a bet on a lot of rivers. I don't put him on many draws when he bets small otf and then checks turn, and I think a lot of times we're WA/WB.

His line is super polarizing and he doesn't rep much but I can't imagine it's profitable to call off another 450 with this hand not having any reads that v is extra spewy. He prob has a set a lot of the time imo.

As played fold to shove. I'm on the fence about checking or betting turn. Since you are in position I think the play is fine. However if you check turn you must call most rivers.


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Yea pretty much this. I like checking back turn, and if I'm going to bet, it's going to be smaller, like 75-80.

As played fold.

fold but you should be checkng turn like always

Villain has shown significant strength 3 times and we're repping a set.

You know what? I'm snapping that jam off. I don't see villain betting that flop size ever with a set and even if he did do it with an overpair/AQ, which also seems unlikely, I don't think he follows up with check/shove much. It makes a lot more sense to me that he has the NFD, or KJcc/KTcc/JTcc/87cc. There are a reasonable number of combos of that sort of thing, we don't block any of them, and we do block him having a queen.

I'd check the turn though. Because I'm snapping off a check/jam betting can't be horrible, but the call of the check/jam is pretty thin and I'd rather not ride the variance train quite so hard for such thin EV.

The more I think about it the more confident I am. Seriously what "young, competent" player bets $35 into $90 and a field of 5 opponents with a set/overpair/TPTK on a drawish board? Nobody does that. Not buying it.

I definitely have seen this line with hands like middle set, hoping that top pair raises otf so they can 3bet.

Nothing wrong with betting turn IMO. Now a fold's probably best, but I could see calling if I had something else to go on to make me believe it's a bluff

If we don't have a good sense of what to do on the turn when x/r, we should check it back. Always have a plan for the hand. The turn shouldn't be a check or bet decision; it should be a [bet/fold, bet/call, bet/jam, or check] decision.

OTF, pot is 90 with 585 behind (and six contenders). If all the money goes in, do you think you're likely winning? If not, we should be pot controlling. That said, calling the small bet IP is reasonable; it doesn't commit us and we'll get more info before putting any more money in the pot.

OTT, a competent player will be capable of putting you to tough decisions. If V is actually competent and aggressive, he is very likely capable of x/r with big hands and semi-bluffs. Since calling a turn x/r will pot commit you, you should decide how to handle it before you bet.

After the x/r, there's 810 in the pot and it's 450 to call. If V is actually competent (and thinks you are), he'll know that any lesser raise is pot committing and therefore basically the same as shoving. He could be doing this with a draw as a semi-bluff; he could be doing it with a monster. It's very unlikely, IMO, that he led the turn into 5 players with nothing so I'm ruling out a pure bluff. I doubt he's x/shoving with a TP-type hand.

So, best case, you're a solid, but not overwhelming, favorite to a big draw. Worst case, you're drawing dead. He'd have to be making a pure bluff at least 1/3 the time for us to profitably snap that off. He has to be semi-bluffing with higher likelihood because he has significant equity when called.

I'd let this go unless I had some reason to expect V to be unusually aggressive. And then a gentle KITN to remind myself to pot control when I don't want to be all in.

Depends how common postflop raises are I guess.

If we give him all NFDs, all sets except the one QQ combo, KJcc/KTcc/JTcc/87cc so { 99, 44, AcKc, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, K cTc, JcTc, Ac8c, Ac7c, 8c7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c } then we have 38%. Breakeven percentage required is 35.7%. So that would be a call, then it depends whether you think he plays sets this way, whether he plays NFDs this way, whether he raises all those hands UTG, etc.

Turn chk/shove semibluffs are rare, and when they happen it's usually a 15 out+ draw. And there just aren't all that many 15 out draws. AKs, KJs/KTs would be rare, TJs, 78s. So 5 combos. But he's got a few set combos I think which are a bit more likely to take this line. Specifically, I just don't see V weak leading flop with any of the semibluff combos listed except maybe KJ/KTs. Sets seem unlikely to take this line too, but imo more likely than semibluffs. Of course, he could just be spewing....

All NFDs seems to be a bit optimistic.

The question that's bothering me is, why does a competent guy lead 1/3 PSB with a set OTF into 6 players on such a board? It makes no sense.

To add to that, he checks turn, giving my "perceived draw" a free card?

It doesn't add up in my mind.

However, it's entirely possible he made a 1/3 "block-bet" with a draw OTF into 6 players, I've seen good TAGs do this with NFD type of hands all the time.

Weak leads with monsters are done to induce raise from top pair trying to protect its equity. I've done this myself with some success, given right table conditions. It might always just be lost value FPS though - hard to say.

It makes sense to check turn after betting so small on flop and getting heads up. I expect most villains to bet all the time here.

That doesn't mean betting turn is wrong. A weak lead can also be a probe bet with something like JJ or TT or top pair/not great kicker. Again, this is a line I've taken myself. If I get heads up, depending on villain, I may be betting more streets for value even with underpair, or continue to bet to barrel them off their hand, or just give up. In general, with a hand like QT, I'm looking for two streets of value with top pair, and am going for it on flop and turn more than flop and river (specifically because draws don't pay on river).

Turn bet is just clicking buttons

Maybe it's a question of hero's playing style. If hero is a nit-tag, and QT is at the bottom of his made hand range, then sure maybe it's clicking button. What I see though is an opportunity to bet where I actually have a pair, and top pair with a broadway kicker at that! This is like a fricken good mine to me when I'm in position.

Ok I'm being a little sarcastic, but really I bluff and stab at pots way too much to not bet this hand when I have it, in position, on a draw heavy board.

I think for my somewhat laggy style, a bet is good. With hero's "snug image", maybe not.

OP, Im about to spew consciousness, so read at your own risk...

OK, so above is good. Now, continue along with your thought process ...

You want to take out sets? ok, that's reasonable given his sizing, limited combos. Now, determine what his leading range might look like.

Given reads thus far, it should be relatively strong and benefit on some level from betting something even though the flop favors calling ranges. So, what hands from UTG might qualify? KK+, AQ, KQs, AKcc, AJ-ATcc, KJ-KTcc, JTcc?
OK, these are hands that can withstand some pressure, prefer to bet/preserve equity/get value. Now, he isn't confined to this, and perhaps he has a few squirrely hands from UTG that flopped deceptive equity too, but has he gotten out of line? would he often choose this spot to do so? (protected pot, dynamic board, hits callers' ranges)

This should at least be his perceived range, and while you can call flop, most of your backdoor outs are dirty. I tend to fold flop here, this deep, even in position. But that's just my strategy against this type of player. I have lots of other hands that can call flop and better ck/bet/call/raise turns.

Moving to the turn, would you now choose to bet against this perceived range? Perhaps you have him far wider/weaker? - but that isn't too easy to assume. Cicakman has you 'clicking button' ott for this very reason.

Now think about what hands he might now check - what hands might want to see a river? what hands are ok with checking-c a bet or ck-shoving against your flop calling range on a brick turn? I think many of the hands we in his flop leading range can/will/should do this often, and have a number of options once you define your range a little further (especially on a brick turn). QThh is such a low quality bet-bluff catch give you need to find the worst hands in his range often enough to make it work...those hands are actually some super high-quality semibluffs and not much else.

So V bet a weak a** size on a wet board, checked turn to us and we think our TP may not be good enough to bet for protection/value? Yeah, we have a tight image, but I don't see how that should affect our decision if we think Vs range is weak?

You are bluffing the turn more than betting for protection. Villain range is big hands and big draws as described.

What good V plays "big hands" this way?

I feel like 2+2 is slowly devolving into an echo chamber advocating tight/weak passive play.

It seems like the advice ranges from...
Check your strong hands because you can't get value when you bet. Yeah you have the virtual nuts, but you're never getting three streets, so just check and maybe you can squeeze out a 1/3 PSB on the river and hope they call. Villains sure are tight these days!

Check your medium strength hands because they might raise you and it sure will be hard to lay that down. You don't want to be bluffed. Villains sure are aggressive these days!

Check your weak hands because villains never fold. They're all a bunch of passive fish. Wait until you have a strong hand to bet in that spot. Villains sure are stationy these days!



But the truth is as it always was, and still continues to be. There is one simple line that's a game crusher. Bet/fold.

we dont bet fold turn, we can bet fold river.

how often are we getting 3 streets of value with QT here vs a good player? Seems like we lose a lot more often then not here.